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Jon Hartley Profile picture
@Jon_Hartley_
Apr 25, 2020 • 3 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Happy 80th birthday Al Pacino! #AlPacino #AlPacino80 ImageImageImageImage
The classic Pacino "Any Given Sunday" Game of Inches speech
and the Oscar-winning Pacino "Scent of a Woman" performance, defending Charlie Simms from being expelled unfairly by the Baird School, a (fictitious) New England prep school

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More from @Jon_Hartley_

Jon Hartley Profile picture
Apr 15
A new @voxeu column of mine w/ Alessandro Rebucci (@arebucci1): "Tariffs, the dollar, and equities: High-frequency evidence from the Liberation Day announcement". Some key figures and a thread🧵 on how global financial markets have responded since 4/2/2025 cepr.org/voxeu/columns/…
The post-Liberation Day depreciation of the USD is surprising as it is contrary to predictions of standard international macroeconomic models and the evidence (including from the first Trump tariffs) that domestic currency exchange rates shift to offset a tariff by appreciating. Image
Interestingly, the USD depreciation was largely against G10 currencies. EM currencies like South African rand (ZAR), Thai baht (THB), & Vietnamese dong (VND) all depreciated considerably vs the USD. Below are 10 most flexible DM & EM currencies according to Ilzetzki et al (2022) Image
Read 9 tweets
Jon Hartley Profile picture
Apr 9
New paper on ***Survey R-star***, which we need to all start using. Model-based r-star (eg Laubach-Williams) have massive standard errors. Instead we should increasingly use median survey estimates from recently developed central bank surveys🧵
Paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…Image
Model-based estimates of r-star have been divergent since the pandemic. Laubach-Williams has been falling while Lubik-Matthes moving upward. How do we know what we can trust when both have massive standard errors? Turning to surveys and median-survey estimates can meaningfully help.Image
In roughly the past decade, the Fed, Bank of England, ECB, Bank of Canada have started central bank surveys of market participants asking about their estimates of r-star or their estimates of the policy rate "in the long run". Piecing this survey data together, we can create a *survey r-star* seriesImage
Read 8 tweets
Jon Hartley Profile picture
Feb 14
New Gen AI paper🚨: "The Labor Market Effects of Generative Artificial Intelligence" with Filip Jolevski (@FilipJole), Vitor Melo (@MeloVitor_), and Brendan Moore (@BrendanDMoore). papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…Image
Our headline takeaway: 30.1% of survey respondents above 18 have used Generative AI at work since Generative AI tools became public, consistent with other survey estimates such as those of Pew and Bick, Blandin, and Deming (2024) (which instead uses Qualtrics; we use IncQuery). Image
With respect to education, we find in our survey more educated workers are more likely to use Generative AI (consistent with the surveys of Pew and Bick, Blandin, and Deming (2024)). Nearly 50% of those in the sample with a graduate degree use Generative AI. Image
Read 20 tweets
Jon Hartley Profile picture
Dec 7, 2024
A thread🧵on my new paper: "Does Government Debt Management Matter? High Frequency Identification From U.S. Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcements" with Lorenzo Rigon (1/N) papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…Image
Government debt management is a classic question in macroeconomics and finance: if the government has to issue X in debt, how much should it issue at different tenors/maturities? (2/N)
Theoretical answers have ranged from 100% perpetuities (Barro (1997)/Angeletos (2002)), to more short-term debt (Greenwood Hanson and Stein (2015), arguing T-bills are like money) to 100% Treasury bills (Alan Blinder once argued if the yield curve is normally upward sloping) (3/N)
Read 12 tweets
Jon Hartley Profile picture
Dec 7, 2024
Thread🧵of those who attended Notre Dame's reopening: heads of state, clergy, firefighters who saved it, workers who rebuilt it, laity, the disabled. Rebuilding⛪️in 5 years shows we can still build great things, honor our sacred traditions & continue to live them. A historic day Image
French Presidents past and present: Macron, Sarkozy and HollandeImage
Image
William, Prince of Wales, representing the United Kingdom along with Henri, Grand Duke of Luxembourg, and Maria Teresa, Grand Duchess of Luxembourg Image
Read 13 tweets
Jon Hartley Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024
The Brightline, a newly *privately* constructed, owned, and operated Florida railway from Miami to Orlando, is the most successful infrastructure story today in America. A thread on how it got done, how nice it is, and how it plans to replicate its success across America 🇺🇸 🧵 Image
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In 2007, Wes Edens and Fortress Investment Group, LLC used private equity funds to purchase Florida East Coast Industries (FECI), Florida's oldest & largest rail/infrastructure company for $3.5 billion. It was originally founded by South Florida pioneer Henry M. Flagler. Image
In late 2014, the company finished securing financing. Laying of new track began mid-2014. Service between Miami and West Palm Beach began in 2018. In April 2019, the company secured financing for the Orlando extension, construction began June 2019, service began September 2023. Image
Read 10 tweets

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