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Jon Hartley Profile picture
@Jon_Hartley_
Apr 25, 2020 • 3 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Happy 80th birthday Al Pacino! #AlPacino #AlPacino80 ImageImageImageImage
The classic Pacino "Any Given Sunday" Game of Inches speech
and the Oscar-winning Pacino "Scent of a Woman" performance, defending Charlie Simms from being expelled unfairly by the Baird School, a (fictitious) New England prep school

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More from @Jon_Hartley_

Jon Hartley Profile picture
Mar 22
My paper with @Felix_Gerding "De-Dollarization? Not So Fast" is now published in Economics Letters. We find that U.S. dollar dominance has been totally unchanged across many metrics since COVID & the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine/related sanctions🧵 sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
The US dollar share of central bank FX reserves has remained largely unchanged since early 2022. Image
Looking back further in time (the wonderful @B_Eichengreen data), the US dollar share of global central bank FX reserves was lower during the 1990s (at 50%) while it is roughly at 60% now. Dollar dominance in FX reserves remains strong. Image
Read 8 tweets
Jon Hartley Profile picture
Mar 16
Yesterday marked 10 years since the release of Piketty's "Capital In The 21st Century". Hard to think of an economics book in the past 10 years which, for better or worse, has had as much influence on discussion about economics, policy and politics. A Thread🧵Image
Image
Measuring Top 1% income shares is difficult. Auten-Splitner using unreported earnings find after-tax top 1% income shares have been essentially flat since the 1960s unlike the Piketty-Saez-Zucman who find shows substantial increases. Capital21 didn't show after-tax Top 1% shares Image
Whether r>g can drive sustained wealth inequality has also generated much debate. Inelasticity of substitution between K and L<1. Dynastic wealth breaks down over time. Assortative mating works against. Rates of return going up. Lot happening. academic.oup.com/qje/article/13…
Read 12 tweets
Jon Hartley Profile picture
Mar 13
In latest @CapAndFreedom ep, Steve Levitt talks his career & retiring as @UChicago prof while still leading RISC & Freakonomics. We talk applied economics, Chicago econ dept (price theory failure, macro success, personalities), Freakonomics origin & more podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ste…
Podcast episode full transcript: capitalismandfreedom.substack.com/p/episode-28-s…
On why he is retiring from academia: "It just didn't make sense to me to keep on puttering around, doing all this work, spending years to write papers that no one cared about when I had other ways of getting my ideas out. And really my interests were elsewhere. I didn't get any thrill. It'd be one thing. If I got a thrill from publishing, if I loved the act of publishing, and it made me feel great to see my nature in some journal, then it would be different. But I never cared about that. I just liked answering the problems and I realized there were better ways, there were better venues for me to answer your problem. And so really the question is, why am I retiring now? The question I should ask myself is why didn't I retire a long time ago? It made no sense. I've just been, I've thought, I've known for years, it's the wrong place for me to be. And it just took me a long time to figure out how to extricate myself from academics. And I'm so glad I'm doing it. It's good for everyone. It doesn't make any sense to, it feels to me awful to be in a place where I'm not excited and where I'm not contributing materially. So, for me, it feels like a breath of fresh air to be saying, "Hey, I'm not going to be an academic anymore. I'm going to be doing what I really love to do.""
Read 17 tweets
Jon Hartley Profile picture
Jan 28
NFL 4th down attempts have skyrocketed since the 2018 NFL season. Amazing how such a simple insight that increases win probability, encapsulated in David Romer's 2006 Journal of Political Economy (@JPolEcon) article, took over 10 years to get coaches/GMs/owners on board. (1/4) Image
"Do Firms Maximize? Evidence from Professional Football" (2006 JPE) by David Romer (2/4) journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.10…
The 2018 surge in 4th down attempts was in part kicked off by the Cleveland Browns and their analytics push; my February 2019 @WSJ article documents the beginning of this trend: "Behavioral Economics May Make Champs of the Cleveland Browns" (3/4)wsj.com/articles/behav…
Read 4 tweets
Jon Hartley Profile picture
Jun 13, 2023
1: Am launching a new website "De-Dollarization Facts" (related paper "De-Dollarization? Not So Fast" ) tracking the status of the U.S. dollar and provide facts in the "de-dollarization" debate which often ignores just how dominant the US dollar is. THREAD de-dollarization.org
2: There are an almost endless number of commentators saying it's the end of the dollar (many from crypto/CBDC communities and intl political interests opposed to the US); most recently with JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, State Street analysts jumping on this train. Not so fast. (2/N)
3: Much of the "de-dollarization" discussion began amidst of the globally destabilizing COVID-19 pandemic, 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, US sanctions on Russia's central bank & recent anti-dollar bilateral trade deals. We now have data thru all of 2022 (& some of 2023) (3/N)
Read 7 tweets
Jon Hartley Profile picture
Mar 31, 2023
Today the IMF released 4Q2023 COFER data: the US dollar share of world reserves DECREASED from 59.8% in 3Q2022 to 58.4% in 4Q2022, the lowest level since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Could this be the start of declining dollar dominance amid geopolitical realignment? THREAD🧵
Much short-run variation reflect changes in the USD FX spot price and FX reserve managers being slow to rebalance. USD massively sold off in 4Q2022, nonetheless, US dollar indices finished the end of 2022 MUCH HIGHER than at start of Russia invasion; dollar share now LOWER.
Interestingly, the pound and yen have benefited the most since the 2022 Russian invasion seeing the largest increases in shares of world FX reserves while the renminbi share has been declining. Of course, this data precedes the recent China-Brazil business forum in Beijing.
Read 4 tweets

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