The classic Pacino "Any Given Sunday" Game of Inches speech
and the Oscar-winning Pacino "Scent of a Woman" performance, defending Charlie Simms from being expelled unfairly by the Baird School, a (fictitious) New England prep school
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🚨There has been a massive surge in Generative AI/LLM tool use in 2025. An update to our paper "The Labor Market Effects of Generative AI" tracking LLM adoption using surveys (finding LLM use at work has increased ~30% to ~40% in 2025). Thread🧵along w other evidence of the surge
Our U.S. survey evidence has found significant increases in Gemini and ChatGPT use during this period of time. ChatGPT and Gemini remain the most widely used tools.
Google search data from Google Trends suggests that searches for "ChatGPT" both in the US and Worldwide have roughly doubled in 2025.
A new @voxeu column of mine w/ Alessandro Rebucci (@arebucci1): "Tariffs, the dollar, and equities: High-frequency evidence from the Liberation Day announcement". Some key figures and a thread🧵 on how global financial markets have responded since 4/2/2025 cepr.org/voxeu/columns/…
The post-Liberation Day depreciation of the USD is surprising as it is contrary to predictions of standard international macroeconomic models and the evidence (including from the first Trump tariffs) that domestic currency exchange rates shift to offset a tariff by appreciating.
Interestingly, the USD depreciation was largely against G10 currencies. EM currencies like South African rand (ZAR), Thai baht (THB), & Vietnamese dong (VND) all depreciated considerably vs the USD. Below are 10 most flexible DM & EM currencies according to Ilzetzki et al (2022)
New paper on ***Survey R-star***, which we need to all start using. Model-based r-star (eg Laubach-Williams) have massive standard errors. Instead we should increasingly use median survey estimates from recently developed central bank surveys🧵
Paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
Model-based estimates of r-star have been divergent since the pandemic. Laubach-Williams has been falling while Lubik-Matthes moving upward. How do we know what we can trust when both have massive standard errors? Turning to surveys and median-survey estimates can meaningfully help.
In roughly the past decade, the Fed, Bank of England, ECB, Bank of Canada have started central bank surveys of market participants asking about their estimates of r-star or their estimates of the policy rate "in the long run". Piecing this survey data together, we can create a *survey r-star* series
New Gen AI paper🚨: "The Labor Market Effects of Generative Artificial Intelligence" with Filip Jolevski (@FilipJole), Vitor Melo (@MeloVitor_), and Brendan Moore (@BrendanDMoore). papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
Our headline takeaway: 30.1% of survey respondents above 18 have used Generative AI at work since Generative AI tools became public, consistent with other survey estimates such as those of Pew and Bick, Blandin, and Deming (2024) (which instead uses Qualtrics; we use IncQuery).
With respect to education, we find in our survey more educated workers are more likely to use Generative AI (consistent with the surveys of Pew and Bick, Blandin, and Deming (2024)). Nearly 50% of those in the sample with a graduate degree use Generative AI.
A thread🧵on my new paper: "Does Government Debt Management Matter? High Frequency Identification From U.S. Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcements" with Lorenzo Rigon (1/N) papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
Government debt management is a classic question in macroeconomics and finance: if the government has to issue X in debt, how much should it issue at different tenors/maturities? (2/N)
Theoretical answers have ranged from 100% perpetuities (Barro (1997)/Angeletos (2002)), to more short-term debt (Greenwood Hanson and Stein (2015), arguing T-bills are like money) to 100% Treasury bills (Alan Blinder once argued if the yield curve is normally upward sloping) (3/N)
Thread🧵of those who attended Notre Dame's reopening: heads of state, clergy, firefighters who saved it, workers who rebuilt it, laity, the disabled. Rebuilding⛪️in 5 years shows we can still build great things, honor our sacred traditions & continue to live them. A historic day
French Presidents past and present: Macron, Sarkozy and Hollande
William, Prince of Wales, representing the United Kingdom along with Henri, Grand Duke of Luxembourg, and Maria Teresa, Grand Duchess of Luxembourg