Thread with thoughts on the (still small?) new outbreak in China, as well as how they're adapting to a post-corona world.
First, the Harbin outbreak is claimed to have been triggered by return migration, and detected at the level of dozens of cases.
archive.is/LBKzy
First, the Harbin outbreak is claimed to have been triggered by return migration, and detected at the level of dozens of cases.
archive.is/LBKzy
How was the Harbin outbreak detected and contained?
We can guess that it likely involves China's digital quarantine, which uses WeChat and Alipay to give every citizen routinely updated red/yellow/green color codes.
archive.is/gDgfb#selectio…
We can guess that it likely involves China's digital quarantine, which uses WeChat and Alipay to give every citizen routinely updated red/yellow/green color codes.
archive.is/gDgfb#selectio…
In the West, only Google, Apple, Facebook have the scale to do something like this.
They could push the app it to all Android & iOS devices. Though keeping it up-to-date with accurate data is nontrivial. As is doing it in a privacy preserving way.
They could push the app it to all Android & iOS devices. Though keeping it up-to-date with accurate data is nontrivial. As is doing it in a privacy preserving way.
Other aspects of the postvirus China worth thinking about.
One is the total reversal of fortune for the sharing economy vis-a-vis buying a car.
The long-term trend towards less car ownership may get reversed.
Perhaps autonomy fixes this? But you're still sharing.
One is the total reversal of fortune for the sharing economy vis-a-vis buying a car.
The long-term trend towards less car ownership may get reversed.
Perhaps autonomy fixes this? But you're still sharing.
Insofar as Wuhan is at least a few months ahead of the West, what's going on there may give some hint as to our future.
First, the new normal is socially distanced.
Second, when people are buying, they appear to be getting things they *need* & that give individual sovereignty.
First, the new normal is socially distanced.
Second, when people are buying, they appear to be getting things they *need* & that give individual sovereignty.
This is one implementation of red zone/green zone at the level of an individual. Red code, yellow code, green code.
Keeping your code green opens up normal economic life and travel.
Means that the testing & data pipeline for updating these codes is critically important!
Keeping your code green opens up normal economic life and travel.
Means that the testing & data pipeline for updating these codes is critically important!
We don't know the accuracy of their antibody tests, but even in Wuhan's Leishenshan hospital — a freshly built one devoted to the most serious coronavirus patients — it looks like only 3% of staff came back positive.
[If Wang has written a paper, it'd be great to read it!]
[If Wang has written a paper, it'd be great to read it!]
I'd quibble with the first sentence below, as China's economic boom really started in 1978 when Deng took power and steered the country out of Maoism.
But take note of the bit below. This is really the most important global event since World War 2. Touches every person on earth.
But take note of the bit below. This is really the most important global event since World War 2. Touches every person on earth.
The virus may end the late 20th century way of life.
Large physical gatherings of strangers will be viewed with concern from here on out. That means political rallies, concerts, events, restaurants, dense cities.
The only hygienic gatherings are online.
Large physical gatherings of strangers will be viewed with concern from here on out. That means political rallies, concerts, events, restaurants, dense cities.
The only hygienic gatherings are online.
The entire world is also moving from a thrive to a survive economy.
Make something people need. Buy only things you need. Many people will slash consumption and become ultra-conservative in many ways.
This does mean a premium for those willing and able to take calculated risks.
Make something people need. Buy only things you need. Many people will slash consumption and become ultra-conservative in many ways.
This does mean a premium for those willing and able to take calculated risks.
Follow-up with several reasons physical crowds may not fully bounce back. We need:
- vaccine equivalent
- government permission
- solvent businesses
- unchanged preferences
- no internet-based alternatives
- fast vaccine updates
- high disposable income
- vaccine equivalent
- government permission
- solvent businesses
- unchanged preferences
- no internet-based alternatives
- fast vaccine updates
- high disposable income
