Will large crowds rebound to the same extent after the coronavirus pandemic?
If we can quantify this, would be happy to bet with Nate at longbets.org with the proceeds going to charity.
If we can quantify this, would be happy to bet with Nate at longbets.org with the proceeds going to charity.
First, there would need to be an effective vaccine, treatment, or something similar to permit unmasked large assemblies.
Second, governments would need to allow them.
Third, the relevant businesses would need to stay solvent (or arise again in a profitable way).
Second, governments would need to allow them.
Third, the relevant businesses would need to stay solvent (or arise again in a profitable way).
Fourth, all of society would need unchanged preferences. If even 30% opted out of large gatherings, many would become sub-scale businesses.
Fifth, internet-based alternatives would need to be abandoned in the rebound. But (eg) Zoom seems to be catalyzing persistent changes.
Fifth, internet-based alternatives would need to be abandoned in the rebound. But (eg) Zoom seems to be catalyzing persistent changes.
This gets back to @tylercowen's base rater vs growther thing. People emotionally want the world to remain the same.
In general, I think people are underestimating the duration of the pandemic & the challenges associated with scaling a vaccine.
See also:
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
In general, I think people are underestimating the duration of the pandemic & the challenges associated with scaling a vaccine.
See also:
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
Sixth, this is now the fifth endemic coronavirus. That means we may see COVID-22 and COVID-26 and so on. If there is a vaccine, it can be updated, but there could be a gap period in between.
If this happens, it's an ongoing disincentive to avoid crowds.
theatlantic.com/health/archive…
If this happens, it's an ongoing disincentive to avoid crowds.
theatlantic.com/health/archive…
Seventh, due to the economic crash (which is just starting), people will have less disposable income.
Physical events are more expensive than digital events, both for organizers & attendees, especially post-COVID. So many may choose digital alternatives.
Physical events are more expensive than digital events, both for organizers & attendees, especially post-COVID. So many may choose digital alternatives.
