Gates: “If in the spring of 2021 people are going to big public events.. will be because we have a miraculous treatment that made people feel confident.. hard to know what the threshold is I suspect it is 95%.. possible treatments will have 95% effectiveness, it’s not likely” 😬 
“Short of a miracle treatment, which we can't count on, the only way to return the world to where it was before COVID-19 showed up is a highly effective vaccine that prevents the disease.”
This is encouraging. I have read much more pessimistic estimates including whether one will be developed at all:
“I am often asked when large-scale vaccination will start.. I say it is likely to be 18 months even though it could be as short as nine months or closer to two years”
“I am often asked when large-scale vaccination will start.. I say it is likely to be 18 months even though it could be as short as nine months or closer to two years”
“There is one other factor that is hard to account for: human nature. Some people will be naturally reluctant to go out even once the government says it is okay. Others will take the opposite view-they will assume government is being overly cautious and start bucking the rules”
Bill Gates full memo gatesnotes.com/Health/Pandemi…
