Very confusing responses at the press briefing today. Asked about criticisms regarding lack of public health officials in SAGE, Eustice says that although SAGE member names cannot be published, the minutes from SAGE meetings are publicly available. Is this true?
Until now, we've been told that minutes won't released until after the outbreak. He asks Powis to comment on this, who appears to sidestep this point completely. Can someone verify whether SAGE minutes have been made publicly available?
Powis asked about evidence for claims that cases in care homes are declining in line with cases across the country. Question not addressed. Would be good to see any studies informing this evidence, given active testing not ongoing in care homes.
The govt now considering quarantine of incoming travellers. Hard to understand why these measures are being implemented now, and weren't implemented earlier. Surely, if they are considered effective now, they must have been effective in early stages of the epidemic. Why not then?
Powis again emphasising the success of social distancing. The public has clearly done its bit - the govt. clearly hasn't. They've failed on every level- from timing of lockdown to provision of tests, PPE, and basic public health responses.
Asked again about evidence about decline of deaths in care homes & why these are not being counted. Eustice talks about financial support to local authorities without answering the question. Powis says as NHS medical director he is 'most concerned' with reporting hospital deaths.
Powis says there is no centralised authority for care homes. Also speaks about lack of testing, which may have influence death certification by doctors - and this info is collected by the ONS which has a several weak lag. No one discusses underreporting in the community.
The care home crisis is of major concern - and one that's not being addressed by any specific intervention by govt - transmission in care homes is likely to not follow predictions based on modelling by members of SAGE. Here's my take on a recent model.
We need a consolidated public health response that doesn't just look at blanket measures across the general public, but also focuses on networks of high transmission - particularly when the WHO is reporting that half the deaths in Europe are likely to be within care homes.
Many countries in SE Asia foresaw this, and some of the first measures implemented were to protect care home residents, with aggressive case detection, & quarantines imposed to block transmission in highly connected networks - where infections are likely to result in fatality.
