My worldview:
1) Short sharp lockdown to get to zero new cases, using as much of Asia, NZ playbook as possible
2) Then test, trace, isolate to maintain a green zone
3) This minimizes both economic & viral damage
4) Alternative is halfway lockdown that stops economy but not virus
1) Short sharp lockdown to get to zero new cases, using as much of Asia, NZ playbook as possible
2) Then test, trace, isolate to maintain a green zone
3) This minimizes both economic & viral damage
4) Alternative is halfway lockdown that stops economy but not virus
Another alternative is “let-it-rip” to allow herd immunity. I get why folks propose this. Spanish Flu didn’t end us, right?
But I’m skeptical because (a) long-term effects still unknown and (b) we are seeing many asymptomatics are actually presymptomatic.
But I’m skeptical because (a) long-term effects still unknown and (b) we are seeing many asymptomatics are actually presymptomatic.
We don’t fully understand everything this virus can do. It’s only four months old. Letting it just go to 100% seems rash to me, if we have an alternative.
Yes, civilization survived Spanish Flu, but millions died and many things are now different.
Yes, civilization survived Spanish Flu, but millions died and many things are now different.
To just cite Spanish Flu recovery without noting differences is IMO ahistorical.
- it didn’t cause record economic crash
- far less of economy was devoted to travel, restaurants, concerts, etc
- whole episode was heavily censored and in shadow of WW1
- it didn’t cause record economic crash
- far less of economy was devoted to travel, restaurants, concerts, etc
- whole episode was heavily censored and in shadow of WW1
We understand why the digital economy of 2020 would be hit harder by a solar storm than the economy of 1859.
Could the consumer economy of 2020 be hit harder by a virus than the agricultural & industrial producer economy of 1918?
It has long supply chains, high leverage, etc
Could the consumer economy of 2020 be hit harder by a virus than the agricultural & industrial producer economy of 1918?
It has long supply chains, high leverage, etc
Why might the consumer economy of 2020 be hit harder by a virus than the agricultural & industrial producer economy of 1918?
Some theses:
1) WW1 had already caused shock to supply chains
2) Today’s physical leisure economy (travel, restaurants, events, etc) is more disrupted
Some theses:
1) WW1 had already caused shock to supply chains
2) Today’s physical leisure economy (travel, restaurants, events, etc) is more disrupted
