'Stratejik Araştırmalar Merkezi' (Centre for Strategic Research), an official think tank of the Turkish MFA, recently published a booklet on 'Post COVID-19 Global System: Old Issues, New Trends'.
I will translate/highlight some of the excerpts I found most noteworthy.
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I will translate/highlight some of the excerpts I found most noteworthy.
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From the Foreword by Turkish FM Mr Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu:
"COVID-19 has the potential to lead to a transformation in many areas, the effects of which could be felt for many years".
"COVID-19 has the potential to lead to a transformation in many areas, the effects of which could be felt for many years".
From 'Global Trends after Coronavirus' by Mr Ufuk Ulutas (Head of SRC):
"COVID-19 will cause paradigm shifts similar to those caused by 9/11 attacks and global financial crisis of 2008/2009 instead of a systemic breakdown as witnessed in 1st/2nd World Wars or end of Cold War..."
"COVID-19 will cause paradigm shifts similar to those caused by 9/11 attacks and global financial crisis of 2008/2009 instead of a systemic breakdown as witnessed in 1st/2nd World Wars or end of Cold War..."
Mr Ulutas (contd):
"We have just started to familiarise with the transformative phenomenon of COVID and the threat perception around it".
"We have just started to familiarise with the transformative phenomenon of COVID and the threat perception around it".
Mr Ulutas (contd):
"We need both medical data and analysis to determine the evolving situation, for which social scientists are ill-equipped; it is also very difficult to predict the evolutionary process in terms of the global system and politics".
"We need both medical data and analysis to determine the evolving situation, for which social scientists are ill-equipped; it is also very difficult to predict the evolutionary process in terms of the global system and politics".
Mr Ulutas (contd):
"...there is a strong link between global political analysis after COVID-19 and the state's anti-epidemic performance".
"...there is a strong link between global political analysis after COVID-19 and the state's anti-epidemic performance".
Mr Ulutas (contd):
"It is of great importance that states formulate a viable vision about the post-epidemic situation and (ensure) that this vision is met globally and locally".
"It is of great importance that states formulate a viable vision about the post-epidemic situation and (ensure) that this vision is met globally and locally".
Mr Ulutas (contd):
"The concept of the 'strong state' will regain its lost reputation as the orientation to the state will increase while combatting COVID-19".
Zaki adds: A reaffirmation of the Westphalian nation state's centrality.
"The concept of the 'strong state' will regain its lost reputation as the orientation to the state will increase while combatting COVID-19".
Zaki adds: A reaffirmation of the Westphalian nation state's centrality.
Mr Ulutas (contd):
"When the inefficient and inadequate roles of transnational organisations such as the WHO and the EU are taken into account, the link between the self-sufficient state and the strong state concepts will be strengthened".
(Imp: Note dissatisfaction on WHO)
"When the inefficient and inadequate roles of transnational organisations such as the WHO and the EU are taken into account, the link between the self-sufficient state and the strong state concepts will be strengthened".
(Imp: Note dissatisfaction on WHO)
Mr Ulutas (contd):
"Contrary to some claims, the strengthening of the state system will not lead to authoritarianism... the idea that democratic/liberal societies will accept authoritarianism against pandemics is naive".
"Contrary to some claims, the strengthening of the state system will not lead to authoritarianism... the idea that democratic/liberal societies will accept authoritarianism against pandemics is naive".
Mr Ulutas (contd):
"It will be very difficult for states which have lost their capacity for administration and action due to weak structures...to manage the escalation of politico-socio-economic anger emerging in the aftermath of the pandemic".
"It will be very difficult for states which have lost their capacity for administration and action due to weak structures...to manage the escalation of politico-socio-economic anger emerging in the aftermath of the pandemic".
Mr Ulutas (contd):
"The most important determinants in the post COVID-19 world include (1) the economy, (2) criticism of the global system and (3) demands for reform."
"The most important determinants in the post COVID-19 world include (1) the economy, (2) criticism of the global system and (3) demands for reform."
Mr Ulutas (contd):
"The economic dimensions of the outbreak...will cause human mobility, political agitation and transformation on a global scale...actors with the vision and capacity to engage in global economic restructuring will manage the revision of the global system".
"The economic dimensions of the outbreak...will cause human mobility, political agitation and transformation on a global scale...actors with the vision and capacity to engage in global economic restructuring will manage the revision of the global system".
Mr Ulutas (contd):
"One of the most cursory claims during preliminary assessments is that in the US-China competition, the needle will shift in favor of China in the period after COVID-19".
"One of the most cursory claims during preliminary assessments is that in the US-China competition, the needle will shift in favor of China in the period after COVID-19".
Mr Ulutas (contd):
China's counter-COVID efforts "certainly provided some advantages...especially in aid campaigns initiated in Europe and in public diplomacy activities".
(Zaki adds: Ignoring outcry in certain European countries against Chinese aid)
China's counter-COVID efforts "certainly provided some advantages...especially in aid campaigns initiated in Europe and in public diplomacy activities".
(Zaki adds: Ignoring outcry in certain European countries against Chinese aid)
Mr Ulutas (contd):
"...despite the pandemic performance of the American administration and all its possibilities...it could not effectively protect its citizens. However, as many analysts have stated, there is still an opportunity for the US to rebound in the global sense".
"...despite the pandemic performance of the American administration and all its possibilities...it could not effectively protect its citizens. However, as many analysts have stated, there is still an opportunity for the US to rebound in the global sense".
Mr Ulutas (contd):
"If the US manages to go beyond the 'America First' approach - the upcoming elections will be the biggest challenge - it can shut itself down with China in the economic restructuring process of the liberal world".
(Zaki adds: Fears of US protectionism)
"If the US manages to go beyond the 'America First' approach - the upcoming elections will be the biggest challenge - it can shut itself down with China in the economic restructuring process of the liberal world".
(Zaki adds: Fears of US protectionism)
Mr Ulutas (contd):
"Another phenomenon that is currently the most questioned is multilateralism. The pandemic performance of transnational and multilateral institutions and organisations will be far below expectations, and will bring along some existential inquiries..."
"Another phenomenon that is currently the most questioned is multilateralism. The pandemic performance of transnational and multilateral institutions and organisations will be far below expectations, and will bring along some existential inquiries..."
Mr Ulutas (contd):
"...even Italy will not be able to evaluate its relationship with the EU only on pandemic performance. EU states, which will need all kinds of support, especially in the post-COVID-19 economic restructuring, will not be able to easily overlook EU funds".
"...even Italy will not be able to evaluate its relationship with the EU only on pandemic performance. EU states, which will need all kinds of support, especially in the post-COVID-19 economic restructuring, will not be able to easily overlook EU funds".
Mr Ulutas (contd):
"As the EU example points out, criticism does not eliminate the need for multilateralism, but rather emphasises the need to activate multilateral mechanisms".
"As the EU example points out, criticism does not eliminate the need for multilateralism, but rather emphasises the need to activate multilateral mechanisms".
Mr Ulutas (contd):
"The inefficiency and failure of multilateral institutions and organisations in the fight against COVID-19 can open the doors of a period in which earlier calls for revisions...will gain more meaning and find more support in the atmosphere after the crisis".
"The inefficiency and failure of multilateral institutions and organisations in the fight against COVID-19 can open the doors of a period in which earlier calls for revisions...will gain more meaning and find more support in the atmosphere after the crisis".
Mr Ulutas (contd):
"This will be the leading discussion of structural and institutional revisions that may occur in the medium term in the global system."
"This will be the leading discussion of structural and institutional revisions that may occur in the medium term in the global system."
Mr Ulutas (contd):
Claims that Turkey will find an opportunity to project its exemplary state structure such as accessible healthcare, citizen evacuation from overseas, crisis management, etc (presenting examples of incumbent regime's efforts).
Claims that Turkey will find an opportunity to project its exemplary state structure such as accessible healthcare, citizen evacuation from overseas, crisis management, etc (presenting examples of incumbent regime's efforts).
Mr Ulutas (contd):
"Along with this, it (Turkey) can find a more positive atmosphere for the reform efforts in international institutions that it has been carrying out for some time".
"Along with this, it (Turkey) can find a more positive atmosphere for the reform efforts in international institutions that it has been carrying out for some time".
From 'The Global System Under Threat' by Ms Meltem Müftüler-Bac (IR Professor at Sabanci University, Istanbul):
"There are 2 important turning points...The first is...keeping the loss of life as low as possible - and the other is to identify steps to prevent similar crises".
"There are 2 important turning points...The first is...keeping the loss of life as low as possible - and the other is to identify steps to prevent similar crises".
Ms Müftüler-Bac (contd):
"In countries where the global pandemic is currently impacting, there are both very serious casualties and economic losses that have not yet been fully revealed".
"In countries where the global pandemic is currently impacting, there are both very serious casualties and economic losses that have not yet been fully revealed".
Ms Müftüler-Bac (contd):
"Measures taken at the national level...are both insufficient to stop the pandemic and have very high costs in the interdependent order of the world. The vital importance and necessity of international cooperation and solidarity has become more evident".
"Measures taken at the national level...are both insufficient to stop the pandemic and have very high costs in the interdependent order of the world. The vital importance and necessity of international cooperation and solidarity has become more evident".
Ms Müftüler-Bac (contd):
"Unfortunately, in terms of international systems, one of the most unexpected consequences of the pandemic has been (the revelation of) how fragile the bases of international cooperation, global governance and international solidarity are".
"Unfortunately, in terms of international systems, one of the most unexpected consequences of the pandemic has been (the revelation of) how fragile the bases of international cooperation, global governance and international solidarity are".
Ms Müftüler-Bac (contd):
"The surprising effects of the virus on the global system in many respects have shown that a new system can be created".
"The surprising effects of the virus on the global system in many respects have shown that a new system can be created".
Ms Müftüler-Bac (contd):
"At a global level, even in a crisis that concerns all humanity - the survival of human life - the lack of adequate communication and the lack of transnational coordination mechanisms have increased the dimensions of the crisis".
"At a global level, even in a crisis that concerns all humanity - the survival of human life - the lack of adequate communication and the lack of transnational coordination mechanisms have increased the dimensions of the crisis".
Ms Müftüler-Bac (contd):
"In particular, the emergence of the virus in a country such as China, which initially had a non-transparent management, caused a lack of information about the possible dimensions of the global threat".
"In particular, the emergence of the virus in a country such as China, which initially had a non-transparent management, caused a lack of information about the possible dimensions of the global threat".
Ms Müftüler-Bac (contd):
"The WHO's inability to fully grasp the situation at first, and the lack of sufficient information flow from the countries where the epidemic was first seen, enlarged the dimensions of the crisis and fuelled the global spread of the virus".
"The WHO's inability to fully grasp the situation at first, and the lack of sufficient information flow from the countries where the epidemic was first seen, enlarged the dimensions of the crisis and fuelled the global spread of the virus".
Ms Müftüler-Bac (contd):
"Although the epidemic affects all countries as a global problem, the preferences of countries have focused on solutions at the national level and have led them to break with the outside world".
(Zaki adds: Reference to isolationism)
"Although the epidemic affects all countries as a global problem, the preferences of countries have focused on solutions at the national level and have led them to break with the outside world".
(Zaki adds: Reference to isolationism)
Ms Müftüler-Bac (contd):
"The conflicts within the transnational organisations where political integration was experienced, especially after the Second World War, such as the EU, showed how fragile the solidarity is actually even among the EU members".
"The conflicts within the transnational organisations where political integration was experienced, especially after the Second World War, such as the EU, showed how fragile the solidarity is actually even among the EU members".
Ms Müftüler-Bac (contd):
"...it is impossible to solve the global crisis (COVID-19) at the local level".
"...it is impossible to solve the global crisis (COVID-19) at the local level".
Ms Müftüler-Bac (contd):
"...the world order will be very different from the pre-March 2020 outbreak. It is not yet foreseen how and under which conditions the free movement can come back... it appears to be certain that nation states will emerge from this crisis even stronger".
"...the world order will be very different from the pre-March 2020 outbreak. It is not yet foreseen how and under which conditions the free movement can come back... it appears to be certain that nation states will emerge from this crisis even stronger".
Ms Müftüler-Bac (contd):
"Nation states will have to waive various aspects of globalisation in order to protect their citizens. A trend towards a new world order has become evident where states are less open and less physically engaged".
"Nation states will have to waive various aspects of globalisation in order to protect their citizens. A trend towards a new world order has become evident where states are less open and less physically engaged".
Ms Müftüler-Bac (contd):
"On the other hand, the global crisis has created new opportunities. The world of business and education, which had to comply with social isolation in their homes, started to access remotely with a breakthrough..."
"On the other hand, the global crisis has created new opportunities. The world of business and education, which had to comply with social isolation in their homes, started to access remotely with a breakthrough..."
Ms Müftüler-Bac (contd):
"Continuing public and private sector studies through teleconferencing method gave the first signals of a system in which the constraints of physical space were overcome and another working system was shaped".
"Continuing public and private sector studies through teleconferencing method gave the first signals of a system in which the constraints of physical space were overcome and another working system was shaped".
Ms Müftüler-Bac (contd):
"This situation, which creates an additional motivation for the development of new technologies, will also accelerate the technology wars between countries".
"This situation, which creates an additional motivation for the development of new technologies, will also accelerate the technology wars between countries".
Ms Müftüler-Bac (contd):
Post COVID-19 situation "...may lead states to transform themselves more, to develop more national policies and to protect borders, as well as to a system where international solidarity can increase with different international cooperation mechanisms".
Post COVID-19 situation "...may lead states to transform themselves more, to develop more national policies and to protect borders, as well as to a system where international solidarity can increase with different international cooperation mechanisms".
Ms Müftüler-Bac (contd):
"If the protectionist national policies of the nation states are not enough to protect their material interests and they realise that they can only survive this crisis with international cooperation, there may be a rapid transition to a new world order".
"If the protectionist national policies of the nation states are not enough to protect their material interests and they realise that they can only survive this crisis with international cooperation, there may be a rapid transition to a new world order".
Ms Müftüler-Bac (contd):
"...the country or group of countries that will take the leadership role at the global level is necessary for the international system to evolve more rapidly towards the inter-country solidarity and cooperation model".
"...the country or group of countries that will take the leadership role at the global level is necessary for the international system to evolve more rapidly towards the inter-country solidarity and cooperation model".
Ms Müftüler-Bac (contd):
It is important that Turkey "become more visible on international platforms and increase international cooperation".
It is important that Turkey "become more visible on international platforms and increase international cooperation".
From 'The World After COVID-19: Two Options' by Mr M. Şükrü Hanioğlu (Prof of late Ottoman History at Princeton University):
The post COVID-19 world will witness "strengthening of authoritarianism...narrowing of private space".
The post COVID-19 world will witness "strengthening of authoritarianism...narrowing of private space".
Mr Hanioğlu (contd):
The new world order post COVID-19 will include "the questioning of multiculturalism, the tendency to wall the borders, the spread of isolation, the question of the existence of the EU and international institutions".
The new world order post COVID-19 will include "the questioning of multiculturalism, the tendency to wall the borders, the spread of isolation, the question of the existence of the EU and international institutions".
Mr Hanioğlu (contd):
"On the other hand, it can be argued that the COVID-19 crisis will not trigger a major change in order in the field of international relations..."
"On the other hand, it can be argued that the COVID-19 crisis will not trigger a major change in order in the field of international relations..."
Mr Hanioğlu (contd):
"In contrast, the idealist conventions to be developed will probably not even achieve a "short-running" success, similar to the 'Wilsonian moment' after 1918".
"In contrast, the idealist conventions to be developed will probably not even achieve a "short-running" success, similar to the 'Wilsonian moment' after 1918".
Mr Hanioğlu (contd):
Idealism "will not be able to make its voice heard...leaving the square open for 'realpolitik' approach".
Idealism "will not be able to make its voice heard...leaving the square open for 'realpolitik' approach".
Mr Hanioğlu (contd):
The 'America First' approach, zero-sum attitude etc "will try to take competitiveness to a higher level".
The 'America First' approach, zero-sum attitude etc "will try to take competitiveness to a higher level".
Mr Hanioğlu (contd):
"...it is obvious that Europe cannot be one of the main actors in maintaining the 'old order'...it is a utopia that will become anachronism after the COVID-19 crisis".
"...it is obvious that Europe cannot be one of the main actors in maintaining the 'old order'...it is a utopia that will become anachronism after the COVID-19 crisis".
Mr Hanioğlu (contd):
"The People's Republic of China...is ready to continue the zero-sum competitive game. This is evidenced by Beijing's continued uncompromising stance in the South China Sea dispute during the COVID-19 crisis".
"The People's Republic of China...is ready to continue the zero-sum competitive game. This is evidenced by Beijing's continued uncompromising stance in the South China Sea dispute during the COVID-19 crisis".
Mr Hanioğlu (contd):
"Policies to be developed in the fields of stopping the pandemic, developing vaccines, preventing the economic crisis after the pandemic and protecting the liberal world order will prevent the anachronism from becoming dominant".
"Policies to be developed in the fields of stopping the pandemic, developing vaccines, preventing the economic crisis after the pandemic and protecting the liberal world order will prevent the anachronism from becoming dominant".
From 'A New World Order Or Illegality After Coronavirus?' by Mr Burhanettin Duran (SETA Foundation):
"After the COVID-19 pandemic, the scenario of China's rise to a superpower position that will replace the US in the near-medium term does not seem realistic".
"After the COVID-19 pandemic, the scenario of China's rise to a superpower position that will replace the US in the near-medium term does not seem realistic".
Mr Duran (contd):
"...it is conceivable that the geopolitical effect of COVID-19 is not "reshaping history" but "acceleration", as Richard Haass points out".
(Zaki adds: Richard N. Haass, President of the Council on Foreign Relations, US)
"...it is conceivable that the geopolitical effect of COVID-19 is not "reshaping history" but "acceleration", as Richard Haass points out".
(Zaki adds: Richard N. Haass, President of the Council on Foreign Relations, US)
Mr Duran (contd):
"...the leadership of the US (will) continues to decline, the global cooperation will weaken further, many countries will become unsuccessful states and the great power competition will deepen".
"...the leadership of the US (will) continues to decline, the global cooperation will weaken further, many countries will become unsuccessful states and the great power competition will deepen".
Mr Duran (contd):
Lack of Sino-US cooperation after the pandemic will "add a virus war to the trade wars".
Lack of Sino-US cooperation after the pandemic will "add a virus war to the trade wars".
Mr Duran (contd):
"Although a new world order cannot be established, it is understood that 'irregularity based on great power competition' i.e. 'turbulence' will intensify".
"Although a new world order cannot be established, it is understood that 'irregularity based on great power competition' i.e. 'turbulence' will intensify".
Mr Duran (contd):
"...countries would protect their strategic sectors under special protection in order to be self-sufficient".
"...countries would protect their strategic sectors under special protection in order to be self-sufficient".
Mr Duran (contd):
"All capitals will feel the utmost care about the security of national technology capacity from high technology to communication. This 'safety storm' carries great power competition to new areas, including 'model discussions'".
"All capitals will feel the utmost care about the security of national technology capacity from high technology to communication. This 'safety storm' carries great power competition to new areas, including 'model discussions'".
Mr Duran (contd):
"...the prospect of international cooperation is very low in the face of intensification of power competition".
"...the prospect of international cooperation is very low in the face of intensification of power competition".
Mr Duran (contd):
"This is closely related to the forecasts of the fall of the US leadership, the growth of the US-China cold war, and the continuation of the 'deep pain' of the EU".
"This is closely related to the forecasts of the fall of the US leadership, the growth of the US-China cold war, and the continuation of the 'deep pain' of the EU".
Mr Duran (contd):
"President Trump's inability to lead the fight against COVID-19 and his failure to pursue diplomacy beyond blaming China are seen as new signs of the 'collapse of the liberal world order' thesis, which has been frequently mentioned in recent years".
"President Trump's inability to lead the fight against COVID-19 and his failure to pursue diplomacy beyond blaming China are seen as new signs of the 'collapse of the liberal world order' thesis, which has been frequently mentioned in recent years".
Mr Duran (contd):
"'Hot-headed' Trump's failure to manage the pandemic both internally and globally raises the fear that the balance will deteriorate against the US and that China will take the lead in power competition in Washington, both in Republican and Democratic circles".
"'Hot-headed' Trump's failure to manage the pandemic both internally and globally raises the fear that the balance will deteriorate against the US and that China will take the lead in power competition in Washington, both in Republican and Democratic circles".
Mr Duran (contd):
"While EU countries have even been able to withhold basic healthcare materials from Italy, China helped Iran, Italy, Belgium and Serbia...."
"While EU countries have even been able to withhold basic healthcare materials from Italy, China helped Iran, Italy, Belgium and Serbia...."
From 'Durability of the International System and its Outcomes' by Mr Ersel Aydinli (IR Department, Bilkent University):
"...it would be more appropriate to make a more cautious prediction that the current order will continue".
"...it would be more appropriate to make a more cautious prediction that the current order will continue".
Mr Aydinli (contd):
"The changes we can see will probably be more within the country...will be an important test for states and governance performances at the first stage".
"The changes we can see will probably be more within the country...will be an important test for states and governance performances at the first stage".
Mr Aydinli (contd):
"Pressures on political change and reform may arise in open societies on the basis of the painful experiences that are already being achieved".
"Pressures on political change and reform may arise in open societies on the basis of the painful experiences that are already being achieved".
Mr Aydinli (contd):
"In more closed societies, it may take some time to understand the negative effects of the situation. In any case, reform processes may begin for governments to be more prepared to protect their people".
"In more closed societies, it may take some time to understand the negative effects of the situation. In any case, reform processes may begin for governments to be more prepared to protect their people".
Mr Aydinli (contd):
"This situation leads to restriction of multilateralism and global mobility, and may result in more protectionist and defensive positions".
"This situation leads to restriction of multilateralism and global mobility, and may result in more protectionist and defensive positions".
Mr Aydinli (contd):
"...it will be sufficient to pay attention...to the rise of more protective and nationalist policies in the world. COVID-19 will likely speed up this process, as anyone who feels threatened will adopt the 'self-help' philosophy more".
"...it will be sufficient to pay attention...to the rise of more protective and nationalist policies in the world. COVID-19 will likely speed up this process, as anyone who feels threatened will adopt the 'self-help' philosophy more".
Mr Aydinli (contd):
"The state will return not only with its 'external protector' identity that has emerged in recent years in the face of terrorism, migration and threats from rising powers, but also with its 'internal protector' identity defending its citizens".
"The state will return not only with its 'external protector' identity that has emerged in recent years in the face of terrorism, migration and threats from rising powers, but also with its 'internal protector' identity defending its citizens".
Mr Aydinli (contd):
"States and institutions will gain importance as ensuring security of the public will be a priority".
"States and institutions will gain importance as ensuring security of the public will be a priority".
Mr Aydinli (contd):
"The more attention given to nation-states and administration, the more state-centered international relations will be. In other words, this is a continuity rather than a transformation".
"The more attention given to nation-states and administration, the more state-centered international relations will be. In other words, this is a continuity rather than a transformation".
Mr Aydinli (contd):
"Existing practices regarding foreign relations, alliances, cooperation, conflict and diplomacy will continue".
"Existing practices regarding foreign relations, alliances, cooperation, conflict and diplomacy will continue".
Mr Aydinli (contd):
"State institutions that can act together with their communities, increase their capacity, provide prosperity, and support social trust and support will be strong enough to survive in the competitive state-centered system".
"State institutions that can act together with their communities, increase their capacity, provide prosperity, and support social trust and support will be strong enough to survive in the competitive state-centered system".
Mr Aydinli (contd):
"In the 'new' international system, the power of a nation will depend on its domestic success rather than the successes of other states".
"In the 'new' international system, the power of a nation will depend on its domestic success rather than the successes of other states".
From 'International Order' by Mr Mustafa Aydin (President of the IR Council of Turkey):
"...what matters is the effectiveness and skill of the regime rather than the type of regime" (whether 'democratic' or 'authoritarian')
"...what matters is the effectiveness and skill of the regime rather than the type of regime" (whether 'democratic' or 'authoritarian')
Mr Aydin (contd):
"...whether liberal or authoritarian, when it comes to their security and presence, citizens were prepared to compromise their liberty in favour of the state".
"...whether liberal or authoritarian, when it comes to their security and presence, citizens were prepared to compromise their liberty in favour of the state".
Mr Aydin (contd):
"When considering the transformation after the crisis, we should also take into account that the economic model, in which the state is getting smaller, is no longer accepted because of the social costs and recurrent crises".
"When considering the transformation after the crisis, we should also take into account that the economic model, in which the state is getting smaller, is no longer accepted because of the social costs and recurrent crises".
Mr Aydin (contd):
"We can also assume that some international trends that have developed in recent years (eg increasing populism in politics, economic nationalism and xenophobia) will not experience major changes due to this epidemic".
"We can also assume that some international trends that have developed in recent years (eg increasing populism in politics, economic nationalism and xenophobia) will not experience major changes due to this epidemic".
Mr Aydin (contd):
"What determines where the process will evolve from here is what kind of regimes and economic and political measures will best respond to the demands of the post-crisis period, rather than what happened during the crisis".
(Zaki adds: Imp observation)
"What determines where the process will evolve from here is what kind of regimes and economic and political measures will best respond to the demands of the post-crisis period, rather than what happened during the crisis".
(Zaki adds: Imp observation)
Mr Aydin (contd):
"...the 'new world order' debates...have come to life with this crisis...these debates will contribute to the evolution that has already begun, rather than taking the world political-economic system to a completely different direction".
"...the 'new world order' debates...have come to life with this crisis...these debates will contribute to the evolution that has already begun, rather than taking the world political-economic system to a completely different direction".
Mr Aydin (contd):
"...the China-USA competition, which started clearly before the crisis, will continue rapidly and will enter a period of intense tension that prevails in the economic direction".
"...the China-USA competition, which started clearly before the crisis, will continue rapidly and will enter a period of intense tension that prevails in the economic direction".
Mr Aydin (contd):
"...after the crisis, the causes of failure of existing international cooperation models will be discussed".
"...after the crisis, the causes of failure of existing international cooperation models will be discussed".
Mr Aydin (contd):
"...the EU's presence after the crisis will be determined within the framework of the transformation it will provide...which is the main field of concern, and the contribution it will make to the survival of the coming economic crisis with the least damage".
"...the EU's presence after the crisis will be determined within the framework of the transformation it will provide...which is the main field of concern, and the contribution it will make to the survival of the coming economic crisis with the least damage".
Mr Aydin (contd):
"...chemical-biological threats, which have already entered the national security documents of the states by security organisations, but still do not seem to be adequately prepared, will be at the top of the following plans".
"...chemical-biological threats, which have already entered the national security documents of the states by security organisations, but still do not seem to be adequately prepared, will be at the top of the following plans".
Mr Aydin (contd):
"...the armed forces' active role in combating the epidemic in many countries will open a new debate on civil-military relations after the crisis and the mobility of the armies in non-military matters".
(Zaki adds: Imp observation)
"...the armed forces' active role in combating the epidemic in many countries will open a new debate on civil-military relations after the crisis and the mobility of the armies in non-military matters".
(Zaki adds: Imp observation)
Mr Aydin (contd):
"The common life, education and working methods of the armies that eliminate the social distance will certainly come to the fore in these discussions".
(Zaki adds: Reference to the Operational Environment)
"The common life, education and working methods of the armies that eliminate the social distance will certainly come to the fore in these discussions".
(Zaki adds: Reference to the Operational Environment)
Mr Aydin (contd):
"...the wide-ranging social changes we have experienced for some time after the epidemic will accelerate. This can lead us to a different global political and economic system in the long run. At that point, maybe nothing really may be as before".
"...the wide-ranging social changes we have experienced for some time after the epidemic will accelerate. This can lead us to a different global political and economic system in the long run. At that point, maybe nothing really may be as before".
From 'Rethinking The COVID-19 Pandemic' by Dr Tuncay Kardaş (Associate IR Professor at Middle East Institute):
"...one of the most overlooked consequences of the COVID-19 crisis is the blow to our reasoning ability".
"...one of the most overlooked consequences of the COVID-19 crisis is the blow to our reasoning ability".
Dr Kardaş (contd):
"China, which caused an epidemic but later turned it into an opportunity, should draw attention to the rising hegemonic attitudes of world politics".
"China, which caused an epidemic but later turned it into an opportunity, should draw attention to the rising hegemonic attitudes of world politics".
Dr Kardaş (contd):
"We have a great power that gives the opportunity to provide financial aid and technical information to the European countries that are struggling with the epidemic in a short time".
"We have a great power that gives the opportunity to provide financial aid and technical information to the European countries that are struggling with the epidemic in a short time".
Dr Kardaş (contd):
"China's efforts to consolidate the missing institutional leg of its hegemony with initiatives such as 'Health Silk Road' in Europe on 17 March and 'Outbreak Prevention and Control Research Centre' in Africa should not be overlooked".
"China's efforts to consolidate the missing institutional leg of its hegemony with initiatives such as 'Health Silk Road' in Europe on 17 March and 'Outbreak Prevention and Control Research Centre' in Africa should not be overlooked".
Dr Kardaş (contd):
"The world has been familiar with traditional (or hybrid) wars between proxies (non-state armed actors) rather than inter-state wars. However, in the pandemic period, global politics seems to have entered a period of general conflict".
"The world has been familiar with traditional (or hybrid) wars between proxies (non-state armed actors) rather than inter-state wars. However, in the pandemic period, global politics seems to have entered a period of general conflict".
Dr Kardaş (contd):
"...regional conflicts stopped. Many groups from Colombia to the Philippines are forced to take a break. Among the motivations of these groups, tactical factors such as logistic cuts due to curfews and the health of their supporters are also effective".
"...regional conflicts stopped. Many groups from Colombia to the Philippines are forced to take a break. Among the motivations of these groups, tactical factors such as logistic cuts due to curfews and the health of their supporters are also effective".
Dr Kardaş (contd):
"While countries' health systems and economies are mobilising...individuals are fighting an isolated war between the rooms of the house from their families and society".
"While countries' health systems and economies are mobilising...individuals are fighting an isolated war between the rooms of the house from their families and society".
Dr Kardaş (contd):
"Everyone is a potential enemy in this war. The personal continues to be political, but people are now very dangerous".
"Everyone is a potential enemy in this war. The personal continues to be political, but people are now very dangerous".
Dr Kardaş (contd):
"Today, health-based techno-policies (and related scientific boards) deeply affect decision-making dynamics. Critical socio-economic decisions regarding the future of most countries are shaped by special-technical information regimes and representatives".
"Today, health-based techno-policies (and related scientific boards) deeply affect decision-making dynamics. Critical socio-economic decisions regarding the future of most countries are shaped by special-technical information regimes and representatives".
Dr Kardaş (contd):
"If the COVID-19 outbreak is to be billed, it is better to cut it not for global modernity but for those who insist on post-truth domination".
"If the COVID-19 outbreak is to be billed, it is better to cut it not for global modernity but for those who insist on post-truth domination".
Dr Kardaş (contd):
"...the introduction of politics into a techno-political form will not only push the average citizen out of corporate politics, but also a stronger one against the individual (state or private companies) holding the health-technical regimes".
"...the introduction of politics into a techno-political form will not only push the average citizen out of corporate politics, but also a stronger one against the individual (state or private companies) holding the health-technical regimes".
Dr Kardaş (contd):
"...it is not the strengthening of authoritarian regimes that are to be considered here (they are already strong) but the authoritarianisation of liberal-democratic governments".
"...it is not the strengthening of authoritarian regimes that are to be considered here (they are already strong) but the authoritarianisation of liberal-democratic governments".
From 'Positive Discrimination After COVID-19' by Dr Mustafa Kibaroglu (Pol Sci and IR Chair at MEF University):
"The global epidemic has shown that 'food security' and 'healthcare' are among the most essential needs of social life".
"The global epidemic has shown that 'food security' and 'healthcare' are among the most essential needs of social life".
Dr Kibaroglu (contd):
"The global epidemic has demonstrated that, without exception, all international organisations are unable to fulfill their basic missions on paper and have created bureaucratic structures that inflated over time".
"The global epidemic has demonstrated that, without exception, all international organisations are unable to fulfill their basic missions on paper and have created bureaucratic structures that inflated over time".
Dr Kibaroglu (contd):
"The future will continue to maintain a visible presence of NATO and Turkey should continue to have the respected protection within the Alliance".
"The future will continue to maintain a visible presence of NATO and Turkey should continue to have the respected protection within the Alliance".
From 'Will COVID-19 Be The End of Civilisation?' by Dr Altay Atli (Lecturer at Boğaziçi University):
"There is enough reason to declare the end of globalisation...we have moved to a world which belongs to the virus".
"There is enough reason to declare the end of globalisation...we have moved to a world which belongs to the virus".
Dr Atli (contd):
"Globalisation is currently in intensive care, but when it is discharged, it will be stronger and free from problems that not only release the virus, but also lower its immune system before the virus".
"Globalisation is currently in intensive care, but when it is discharged, it will be stronger and free from problems that not only release the virus, but also lower its immune system before the virus".
Dr Atli (contd):
"While globalisation is committed to the win-win system to the world, the actors who lost their hope, as seen clearly in the trade wars between the US and China, started to return to zero-sum games by saying 'me first'".
"While globalisation is committed to the win-win system to the world, the actors who lost their hope, as seen clearly in the trade wars between the US and China, started to return to zero-sum games by saying 'me first'".
Dr Atli (contd):
"...because the authoritarian regimes like China are more successful against the liberal regimes in the fight against the epidemic, the global supply chains considered as the symbol of the economic globalisation will suffer greatly in this process".
"...because the authoritarian regimes like China are more successful against the liberal regimes in the fight against the epidemic, the global supply chains considered as the symbol of the economic globalisation will suffer greatly in this process".
Dr Atli (contd):
"COVID-19 showed the world that everyone, every country, every segment, every individual is equal. The global hegemon US is currently the country that suffers the most from the epidemic".
"COVID-19 showed the world that everyone, every country, every segment, every individual is equal. The global hegemon US is currently the country that suffers the most from the epidemic".
Dr Atli (contd):
"...a world that lives this process and sees how equally everyone is, will have enough motivation to overcome artificially constructed inequalities to date".
"...a world that lives this process and sees how equally everyone is, will have enough motivation to overcome artificially constructed inequalities to date".
Dr Atli (contd):
"China started to position itself as a pioneer in this matter with the outbreak first, taking measures early, and achieving relative success in controlling the outbreak..."
"China started to position itself as a pioneer in this matter with the outbreak first, taking measures early, and achieving relative success in controlling the outbreak..."
Dr Atli (contd):
"...the fight against epidemic requires not the stability that a new hegemon will bring, but the common benefit of the widespread international cooperation envisaged by the liberal school of the discipline of international relations..."
"...the fight against epidemic requires not the stability that a new hegemon will bring, but the common benefit of the widespread international cooperation envisaged by the liberal school of the discipline of international relations..."
Dr Atli (contd):
"The liberal democracies of Germany, Japan, and South Korea have also made significant strides, and it was not the authoritarian rule but the powerful institutional capacity and functioning of the state".
"The liberal democracies of Germany, Japan, and South Korea have also made significant strides, and it was not the authoritarian rule but the powerful institutional capacity and functioning of the state".
From 'Coronavirus, Globalisation and International System' by Mr Emre Erşen, Lecturer at Middle East Institute:
"...the development of vaccines and drugs...necessitates intensive cooperation and information sharing, involving non-state actors as well as national governments".
"...the development of vaccines and drugs...necessitates intensive cooperation and information sharing, involving non-state actors as well as national governments".
Mr Erşen (contd):
"...the claims that the geopolitical axis of the world is shifting from the West to the East are gaining power once again, just like in the 2007-2008 period".
"...the claims that the geopolitical axis of the world is shifting from the West to the East are gaining power once again, just like in the 2007-2008 period".
Mr Erşen (contd):
"...the claim that China has established a moral superiority over other actors in this process (relief efforts) seems at least highly controversial at this stage".
"...the claim that China has established a moral superiority over other actors in this process (relief efforts) seems at least highly controversial at this stage".
Mr Erşen (contd):
"...trying to interpret the effects of the crisis on the international system only through the US-China competition is a very reductionist approach".
"...trying to interpret the effects of the crisis on the international system only through the US-China competition is a very reductionist approach".
From 'COVID-19 - National State and Risk Society' by Mr Mehmet Özay (International Affairs Professor at Carleton University):
"...even the experience gained from psychological destructions can ensure that global public does not remain silent towards confrontational tendencies".
"...even the experience gained from psychological destructions can ensure that global public does not remain silent towards confrontational tendencies".
Mr Özay (contd):
"...the success of civil society will reveal the power of the large community to succeed in mobilising their own national political structures".
"...the success of civil society will reveal the power of the large community to succeed in mobilising their own national political structures".
Mr Özay (contd):
"Due to the importance it carries for public health, new steps will be taken globally on how to manage water and food resources. This approach will be decisive in the relations between countries and unions in the coming period".
"Due to the importance it carries for public health, new steps will be taken globally on how to manage water and food resources. This approach will be decisive in the relations between countries and unions in the coming period".
Mr Özay (contd):
"...vital structures that will be created not only by the private sector but also by the possibilities of nation states, such as having health, water and food resources, and reorganising logistic support areas in access to them, will be important".
"...vital structures that will be created not only by the private sector but also by the possibilities of nation states, such as having health, water and food resources, and reorganising logistic support areas in access to them, will be important".
Mr Özay (contd):
"...it has become important for individuals and societies to be powerless in the face of the global disaster that comes with COVID-19, and that the nation state is strong".
"...it has become important for individuals and societies to be powerless in the face of the global disaster that comes with COVID-19, and that the nation state is strong".
Mr Özay (contd):
"In the fight against COVID-19, the weakness of the global powers namely the US, China and the EU will be handled carefully both by their own society and by the global public".
"In the fight against COVID-19, the weakness of the global powers namely the US, China and the EU will be handled carefully both by their own society and by the global public".
Mr Özay (contd):
"Turkey has the potential to renew the positive image it has given to the global public for the last two decades, leading to the implementation of an alternative discourse with a strong structuring".
"Turkey has the potential to renew the positive image it has given to the global public for the last two decades, leading to the implementation of an alternative discourse with a strong structuring".
From 'Coronalisation in the International System' by Dr Ferhat Pirinççi (Uludağ University):
"...the inability of regional and international organisations to respond adequately to the epidemic has shaken idealistic and functionalist approaches to international cooperation".
"...the inability of regional and international organisations to respond adequately to the epidemic has shaken idealistic and functionalist approaches to international cooperation".
Dr Pirinççi (contd):
"The absence of a global actor taking initiative for regional or global problems or the dysfunction of existing actors causes the problems to grow steadily".
"The absence of a global actor taking initiative for regional or global problems or the dysfunction of existing actors causes the problems to grow steadily".
Dr Pirinççi (contd):
"...a field of motion has emerged for new actors at the global and regional level. The actors who can fill this power gap will be the actors who are successful in fighting the virus to a great extent".
"...a field of motion has emerged for new actors at the global and regional level. The actors who can fill this power gap will be the actors who are successful in fighting the virus to a great extent".
Dr Pirinççi (contd):
"Turkey will use that window of opportunity effectively and is thought to be the leading actor to fill the power vacuum".
"Turkey will use that window of opportunity effectively and is thought to be the leading actor to fill the power vacuum".
Dr Pirinççi (contd):
"...supporting domestic production for advanced medical devices and medical supplies has become important in the fight at the national level and as a foreign policy tool, just as in the domestic defence industry".
"...supporting domestic production for advanced medical devices and medical supplies has become important in the fight at the national level and as a foreign policy tool, just as in the domestic defence industry".
Dr Pirinççi (contd):
"...the health dimension is expected to become an integral part of border security for all states".
"...the health dimension is expected to become an integral part of border security for all states".
Dr Pirinççi (contd):
"It is possible that the strict migration policy to be followed by the states will find a response to other institutions and the people and a new wave of increase in xenophobia".
"It is possible that the strict migration policy to be followed by the states will find a response to other institutions and the people and a new wave of increase in xenophobia".
Dr Pirinççi (contd):
"...it is expected that the contributions of national budgets to international organisations, especially UN specialist organisations, will decrease due to the economic problems at the national level".
"...it is expected that the contributions of national budgets to international organisations, especially UN specialist organisations, will decrease due to the economic problems at the national level".
Dr Pirinççi (contd):
"...given the human mobility in coronavirus becoming an epidemic, states are likely to solidify visa regimes in the new period".
"...given the human mobility in coronavirus becoming an epidemic, states are likely to solidify visa regimes in the new period".
From 'The Role of COVID-19 and International Institutions' by Dr Birol Akgün (Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt University):
"...the performances of the UN and other international organisations in preventing, responding and managing crisis, are not very bright and even worse".
"...the performances of the UN and other international organisations in preventing, responding and managing crisis, are not very bright and even worse".
Dr Akgün (contd):
"...there is no sign that UNSC started to see the issue of combating common diseases as a security issue, as in the fight against terrorism".
"...there is no sign that UNSC started to see the issue of combating common diseases as a security issue, as in the fight against terrorism".
Dr Akgün (contd):
"It is clear that in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic, every state has suffered and self-help has shaken the already weak trust in international institutions".
"It is clear that in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic, every state has suffered and self-help has shaken the already weak trust in international institutions".
Dr Akgün (contd):
"The financial, economic and related social crises that started in 2008 in core capitalist centres such as Europe and the US have...created a xenophobia, Islamophobia and an anti-globalist political wave".
"The financial, economic and related social crises that started in 2008 in core capitalist centres such as Europe and the US have...created a xenophobia, Islamophobia and an anti-globalist political wave".
Dr Akgün (contd):
"...after the COVID-19, the increasing wave of nationalism in the US, UK and European countries will continue to weaken the role of international institutions in the functioning of the world order".
"...after the COVID-19, the increasing wave of nationalism in the US, UK and European countries will continue to weaken the role of international institutions in the functioning of the world order".
Dr Akgün (contd):
"...even if a realistic diplomat like Kissinger calls Westerners to return to multilateralism, it will not be easy for a soul to relapse in the West unless the virus epidemic produces huge consequences that will destroy humanity in huge waves".
"...even if a realistic diplomat like Kissinger calls Westerners to return to multilateralism, it will not be easy for a soul to relapse in the West unless the virus epidemic produces huge consequences that will destroy humanity in huge waves".
Dr Akgün (contd):
"A more realistic scenario is continuation of the moves of actors such as China to increase power in the decision-making mechanisms and policies of international organisations in an environment where the internal problems of the Western world are deepening".
"A more realistic scenario is continuation of the moves of actors such as China to increase power in the decision-making mechanisms and policies of international organisations in an environment where the internal problems of the Western world are deepening".
Dr Akgün (contd):
"During the period of crisis, priority should be given to leadership-level contacts and assessments, particularly the leaders of the great powers, for the resolution of the humanitarian crisis and the development of common policies for the post-crisis period".
"During the period of crisis, priority should be given to leadership-level contacts and assessments, particularly the leaders of the great powers, for the resolution of the humanitarian crisis and the development of common policies for the post-crisis period".
From 'Global Security and Defence after COVID-19' by Dr Can Kasapoğlu (renowned military analyst):
"...the defense economies at the global level will shrink in the period ahead".
"...the defense economies at the global level will shrink in the period ahead".
Dr Kasapoğlu (contd):
"It is thought that European defence economies and their combat capacities will face serious problems".
"It is thought that European defence economies and their combat capacities will face serious problems".
Dr Kasapoğlu (contd):
"The hydrocarbon economy needs to closely monitor the situation of the Russian Federation, which provides 21% of global defence supply (2015-2019) and the Gulf Arab countries, especially Saudi Arabia, which makes 12% of global arms imports (2015-2019)".
"The hydrocarbon economy needs to closely monitor the situation of the Russian Federation, which provides 21% of global defence supply (2015-2019) and the Gulf Arab countries, especially Saudi Arabia, which makes 12% of global arms imports (2015-2019)".
Dr Kasapoğlu (contd):
"On the one hand, the contraction in defence economies will make military cooperation more essential, especially for medium-sized states, while on the other hand it will be difficult to protect large-scale production networks".
"On the one hand, the contraction in defence economies will make military cooperation more essential, especially for medium-sized states, while on the other hand it will be difficult to protect large-scale production networks".
Dr Kasapoğlu (contd):
"...progress made by humanity in fields such as biomedical research, bio-technology, molecular biology, and the non-state groups allow more use of pathogens for military purposes".
"...progress made by humanity in fields such as biomedical research, bio-technology, molecular biology, and the non-state groups allow more use of pathogens for military purposes".
Dr Kasapoğlu (contd):
"...states should be expected to be highly active in the field of bio-security in the upcoming period".
"...states should be expected to be highly active in the field of bio-security in the upcoming period".
Dr Kasapoğlu (contd):
"The COVID-19 outbreak brings with it the risk of fragile or unsuccessful states".
"The COVID-19 outbreak brings with it the risk of fragile or unsuccessful states".
Dr Kasapoğlu (contd):
"...the development of medical intelligence (MEDINT) capabilities and their inclusion in military base planning is essential".
"...the development of medical intelligence (MEDINT) capabilities and their inclusion in military base planning is essential".
From 'Rise of Medical Intelligence' by Merve Seren (Assistant Professor at Ankara Yildirim Beyazit University):
COVID-19 "has shown that national intelligence agencies...should (also) have abilities in medical and social aspects that concern public health".
COVID-19 "has shown that national intelligence agencies...should (also) have abilities in medical and social aspects that concern public health".
Ms Seren (contd):
"...while the COVID-19 case reveals the necessity of competence and efficiency acquisition in all intelligence gathering disciplines; It also revealed the rise of 'medical intelligence'".
"...while the COVID-19 case reveals the necessity of competence and efficiency acquisition in all intelligence gathering disciplines; It also revealed the rise of 'medical intelligence'".
Ms Seren (contd):
"...thanks to human intelligence, it was possible to learn many data about medical supplies shortage and poor hospital conditions in European countries such as England, France, Italy and in the US".
"...thanks to human intelligence, it was possible to learn many data about medical supplies shortage and poor hospital conditions in European countries such as England, France, Italy and in the US".
Ms Seren (contd):
"...open source intelligence is particularly important in terms of real-time and instant data flow. However, the density, timelessness, uncontrolled and unsupervised data flow should be considered".
"...open source intelligence is particularly important in terms of real-time and instant data flow. However, the density, timelessness, uncontrolled and unsupervised data flow should be considered".
Ms Seren (contd):
"...it may be a matter of getting the talks and correspondences between the state leaders easier. Likewise, industrial espionage is likely to become widespread. There may also be a violation of the privacy of individuals and communities".
"...it may be a matter of getting the talks and correspondences between the state leaders easier. Likewise, industrial espionage is likely to become widespread. There may also be a violation of the privacy of individuals and communities".
Ms Seren (contd):
"...there was a cyber intelligence war between states for propaganda and disinformation in the coronavirus process".
"...there was a cyber intelligence war between states for propaganda and disinformation in the coronavirus process".
Ms Seren (contd):
"...it is seen that Taiwan and the United States often accuse China of organising cyber attacks and cyber warfare in order to undermine the fight against coronavirus, steal data or crash it".
"...it is seen that Taiwan and the United States often accuse China of organising cyber attacks and cyber warfare in order to undermine the fight against coronavirus, steal data or crash it".
Ms Seren (contd):
"...the history of medical intelligence is based on the Second World War. This concept, which was used by the US for the first time during the Second World War, revealed its role and importance within the scope of Operation Infektion..."
"...the history of medical intelligence is based on the Second World War. This concept, which was used by the US for the first time during the Second World War, revealed its role and importance within the scope of Operation Infektion..."
Ms Seren (contd):
"COVID-19 is capable of raising awareness not only of the major intelligence agencies but also of the importance of medical intelligence worldwide".
"COVID-19 is capable of raising awareness not only of the major intelligence agencies but also of the importance of medical intelligence worldwide".
Ms Seren (contd):
"...intelligence agencies need to have a much closer dialogue mechanism and cooperation with the medical world".
"...intelligence agencies need to have a much closer dialogue mechanism and cooperation with the medical world".
From 'Coronavirus as a National Security Problem' by Dr Nihat Ali Özcan (Security Policy Analyst at TEPAV):
"...it is clear that coronavirus and similar outbreaks will have a negative multiplier effect in the 'security' area as in all areas of life".
"...it is clear that coronavirus and similar outbreaks will have a negative multiplier effect in the 'security' area as in all areas of life".
Dr Özcan (contd):
"States, terrorism and criminal organisations that have managed to survive in an environment where the psychological dimension is important or adopted asymmetric methods as strategies can see developments as an opportunity to bring down / control the state."
"States, terrorism and criminal organisations that have managed to survive in an environment where the psychological dimension is important or adopted asymmetric methods as strategies can see developments as an opportunity to bring down / control the state."
Dr Özcan (contd):
"At this point, coronavirus-like threats will affect the 'sovereign states' much more than networked terrorism and criminal organisations".
"At this point, coronavirus-like threats will affect the 'sovereign states' much more than networked terrorism and criminal organisations".
Dr Özcan (contd):
"...dealing with the epidemic is not only a medical mobilisation, but a serious public relations and public order activity".
"...dealing with the epidemic is not only a medical mobilisation, but a serious public relations and public order activity".
Dr Özcan (contd):
"...security agencies will continue their activities both at home and abroad. However, in order to prevent personnel and capacity loss, they should take measures against coronavirus and similar threats".
"...security agencies will continue their activities both at home and abroad. However, in order to prevent personnel and capacity loss, they should take measures against coronavirus and similar threats".
Dr Özcan (contd):
"Security and intelligence units' ability to perform their duties better and more effectively under the Coronavirus and similar conditions will require change of understanding and reorganisation in the following areas...."
"Security and intelligence units' ability to perform their duties better and more effectively under the Coronavirus and similar conditions will require change of understanding and reorganisation in the following areas...."
Dr Özcan (contd):
"Change in operations, methods, norms and equipment. New financial burden..."
"Change in operations, methods, norms and equipment. New financial burden..."
Dr Özcan (contd):
"Priority in intelligence, difficulties of collection method. Analysis and risk change. Putting 'medical employment barrage' on the agenda".
"Priority in intelligence, difficulties of collection method. Analysis and risk change. Putting 'medical employment barrage' on the agenda".
Dr Özcan (contd):
"Arrangements for the safety of staff and their families".
"Arrangements for the safety of staff and their families".
Dr Özcan (contd):
"Supply ofhygiene and food safety equipment in the field of logistics. Classification of important health equipment as 'strategic production', production of national and domestic defence industry".
"Supply ofhygiene and food safety equipment in the field of logistics. Classification of important health equipment as 'strategic production', production of national and domestic defence industry".
Dr Özcan (contd):
"Reworking the understanding of duty, service and settlement in the barracks, law enforcement facilities, aircraft and ships, other bases, domestically and abroad within the framework of the coronavirus".
"Reworking the understanding of duty, service and settlement in the barracks, law enforcement facilities, aircraft and ships, other bases, domestically and abroad within the framework of the coronavirus".
Dr Özcan (contd):
"Reorganising health services of security units".
"Reorganising health services of security units".
Dr Özcan (contd):
"All state institutions will be taught together at the CBRN School to develop a common understanding..."
"All state institutions will be taught together at the CBRN School to develop a common understanding..."
Dr Özcan (contd):
"Rethinking the 'hybrid threats' of the pandemic such as terrorism, peacekeeping, watchdog, public order, irregular migration, border security, human trafficking, aid in natural disasters, and propaganda war targeting public order".
"Rethinking the 'hybrid threats' of the pandemic such as terrorism, peacekeeping, watchdog, public order, irregular migration, border security, human trafficking, aid in natural disasters, and propaganda war targeting public order".
Dr Özcan (contd):
"...the coronavirus outbreak is not only a public health problem, but also a direct and indirect security problem. The pandemic, as in all areas, requires raising awareness in the security area".
"...the coronavirus outbreak is not only a public health problem, but also a direct and indirect security problem. The pandemic, as in all areas, requires raising awareness in the security area".
From 'Global Security Trends after COVID-19' by Dr Giray Sadik (Associate IR Professor at Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt University):
"...international organisations have provided very late and limited support to the expectations of its members...especially the UN and the EU".
"...international organisations have provided very late and limited support to the expectations of its members...especially the UN and the EU".
Dr Sadik (contd):
"Italy's post-coronavirus entry into the EU exit process like England is strongly possible, and this may be the beginning of the end for the EU".
"Italy's post-coronavirus entry into the EU exit process like England is strongly possible, and this may be the beginning of the end for the EU".
Dr Sadik (contd):
"Whether or not the coronavirus is a type of bio-weapon, there will be state and non-state actors who want to take advantage of such a global potential".
"Whether or not the coronavirus is a type of bio-weapon, there will be state and non-state actors who want to take advantage of such a global potential".
Dr Sadik (contd):
"International organisations such as the UN, EU, NATO, SCO, which have important security functions along with states, and various cross-border terrorist and criminal organisations will also be affected by these changes".
"International organisations such as the UN, EU, NATO, SCO, which have important security functions along with states, and various cross-border terrorist and criminal organisations will also be affected by these changes".
Dr Sadik (contd):
"...the process of transition from hybrid wars to 'hybrid partnerships', where competition and occasional limited conflicts are observed simultaneously, has gained momentum with the coronavirus".
"...the process of transition from hybrid wars to 'hybrid partnerships', where competition and occasional limited conflicts are observed simultaneously, has gained momentum with the coronavirus".
Dr Sadik (contd):
"In the past, biological weapons, which seemed to be the WMDs of countries with limited nuclear power, have been shown to have a global potential, and the arrow has come out of the bow..."
"In the past, biological weapons, which seemed to be the WMDs of countries with limited nuclear power, have been shown to have a global potential, and the arrow has come out of the bow..."
Dr Sadik (contd):
"Another arrow from the bow right after the pandemic is the struggle to guide global public opinion. It has varieties ranging from information pollution to disinformation and perception operations".
"Another arrow from the bow right after the pandemic is the struggle to guide global public opinion. It has varieties ranging from information pollution to disinformation and perception operations".
Dr Sadik (contd):
"The fact that the coronavirus became a global pandemic risks increasing its appeal for asymmetrical activities".
"The fact that the coronavirus became a global pandemic risks increasing its appeal for asymmetrical activities".
Dr Sadik (contd):
"These and similar threats can be expected in the post-corona period ranging from direct attacks on soft targets, such as the security forces and quarantine centres, to bio-terrorist attacks".
"These and similar threats can be expected in the post-corona period ranging from direct attacks on soft targets, such as the security forces and quarantine centres, to bio-terrorist attacks".
Dr Sadik (contd):
"...global terrorism and wars will continue to increase...it also increases the risk of those seeking asymmetric game-changing advantages during this period to use viruses with a potential for mass destruction and perception".
"...global terrorism and wars will continue to increase...it also increases the risk of those seeking asymmetric game-changing advantages during this period to use viruses with a potential for mass destruction and perception".
From 'Geopolitical Reflections of Economic Transformation Dynamics' by Dr Sedat Aybar (İstanbul Aydın University):
"The interesting part of this bio-economic crisis is that it has the potential to solve onflict dynamics that occurred in the previous period".
"The interesting part of this bio-economic crisis is that it has the potential to solve onflict dynamics that occurred in the previous period".
Dr Aybar (contd):
"...those who can harness AI, robotics, 5G technologies, big data and Industry 4.0, who enter the production chain and can adapt to the culture of doing business, will also be the determinants of global geopolitics".
"...those who can harness AI, robotics, 5G technologies, big data and Industry 4.0, who enter the production chain and can adapt to the culture of doing business, will also be the determinants of global geopolitics".
Dr Aybar (contd):
"It is no longer possible to rise to the top in the global states' ranking without having a workforce with creative participation in new business habits".
"It is no longer possible to rise to the top in the global states' ranking without having a workforce with creative participation in new business habits".
Dr Aybar (contd):
"...the economic contraction shaped by the pandemic did not affect the rich and poor countries equally. The African continent, which the pandemic affected relatively less, was the most negatively affected geography".
"...the economic contraction shaped by the pandemic did not affect the rich and poor countries equally. The African continent, which the pandemic affected relatively less, was the most negatively affected geography".
Dr Aybar (contd):
"...the organisational nature of corporate sector and the production chains in China is its biggest obstacle to become a global hegemon despite the Belt and Road Initiative".
"...the organisational nature of corporate sector and the production chains in China is its biggest obstacle to become a global hegemon despite the Belt and Road Initiative".
Dr Aybar (contd):
"...the slowing down and revision of the BRI may come to the fore. The use of new technologies in transportation and logistics networks and e-commerce will only be possible in an environment where wages are suppressed and social unrest increases".
"...the slowing down and revision of the BRI may come to the fore. The use of new technologies in transportation and logistics networks and e-commerce will only be possible in an environment where wages are suppressed and social unrest increases".
Dr Aybar (contd):
"In the context of restrictive measures taken by China to combat the pandemic, the negative impact of the simultaneous contraction of supply chains and demand front on global trade lowered the prices of raw materials and oil".
"In the context of restrictive measures taken by China to combat the pandemic, the negative impact of the simultaneous contraction of supply chains and demand front on global trade lowered the prices of raw materials and oil".
Dr Aybar (contd):
"In an era when oil companies are gradually shut down, alliances built on the cost-benefit dilemma become unsustainable".
"In an era when oil companies are gradually shut down, alliances built on the cost-benefit dilemma become unsustainable".
Dr Aybar (contd):
"American companies will seek to protect their global advantages by integrating the technological transformation of the new world, the renewable energy, robots, AI, semiconductors, flexible ways of doing business etc".
"American companies will seek to protect their global advantages by integrating the technological transformation of the new world, the renewable energy, robots, AI, semiconductors, flexible ways of doing business etc".
Dr Aybar (contd):
"The policy of strengthening the middle classes will now bring to the (US) election a means to cool relations with China, which has lost the advantage of cheap labour..."
"The policy of strengthening the middle classes will now bring to the (US) election a means to cool relations with China, which has lost the advantage of cheap labour..."
From 'Global Economic Trends After COVID-19' by Dr Emrah Zarifoglu (Data Science Programme Director at IBM):
"Cross-border and global supply chains started to work against the increasing demand, primarily with the decrease in the production capacity of China..."
"Cross-border and global supply chains started to work against the increasing demand, primarily with the decrease in the production capacity of China..."
Dr Zarifoglu (contd):
"Many companies operating in different fields from food to textile and electronics have already started to design new supply chains, go to geographical resource diversity and create local alternatives in areas in which they can".
"Many companies operating in different fields from food to textile and electronics have already started to design new supply chains, go to geographical resource diversity and create local alternatives in areas in which they can".
Dr Zarifoglu (contd):
"...while some American companies started to shift some of their production activities from China to Vietnam, they started to increase their local purchases".
"...while some American companies started to shift some of their production activities from China to Vietnam, they started to increase their local purchases".
Dr Zarifoglu (contd):
"Although it is not realistic to think that the dependency on China...will disappear completely, every decrease in this share (30%) will cause serious movement both in alternative production locations and in the West's own domestic production economy".
"Although it is not realistic to think that the dependency on China...will disappear completely, every decrease in this share (30%) will cause serious movement both in alternative production locations and in the West's own domestic production economy".
Dr Zarifoglu (contd):
"...with a high capacity to mobilise, especially in the field of textile, Turkey can take a very important share in this field from China and other Asian countries as the natural supplier of Europe".
"...with a high capacity to mobilise, especially in the field of textile, Turkey can take a very important share in this field from China and other Asian countries as the natural supplier of Europe".
Dr Zarifoglu (contd):
"COVID-19's failure to show reflexes fast enough, especially in the field of medical equipment production, paved the way for governments to be more intervening in both the short and long term in many areas left to the initiative of private companies".
"COVID-19's failure to show reflexes fast enough, especially in the field of medical equipment production, paved the way for governments to be more intervening in both the short and long term in many areas left to the initiative of private companies".
Dr Zarifoglu (contd):
"While we see that the share of the West in production has increased, we will see that China is trying to close the deficit of its lost market share over other countries that it has been economically influencing in recent years".
"While we see that the share of the West in production has increased, we will see that China is trying to close the deficit of its lost market share over other countries that it has been economically influencing in recent years".
Dr Zarifoglu (contd):
"...while many white-collar jobs are actually sustainable regardless of location, blue-collared people are at higher risk, both in terms of health and economy and due to the nature of their work".
"...while many white-collar jobs are actually sustainable regardless of location, blue-collared people are at higher risk, both in terms of health and economy and due to the nature of their work".
Dr Zarifoglu (contd):
"...we can witness an increase of automation efforts in the production and service sectors while expanding the social support programmes of states in the post-pandemic period".
"...we can witness an increase of automation efforts in the production and service sectors while expanding the social support programmes of states in the post-pandemic period".
Dr Zarifoglu (contd):
"...with increasing work from home, the pressure on city centres will decrease. This, of course, will cause provinces to become prominent while the weight of big metropolises on the economy will decrease".
"...with increasing work from home, the pressure on city centres will decrease. This, of course, will cause provinces to become prominent while the weight of big metropolises on the economy will decrease".
Dr Zarifoglu (contd):
"...hydrocarbon prices will not rise to the level desired by oil producers due to decreasing demand caused by changing consumption habits and income losses experienced by the working sector".
"...hydrocarbon prices will not rise to the level desired by oil producers due to decreasing demand caused by changing consumption habits and income losses experienced by the working sector".
Dr Zarifoglu (contd):
"...low oil prices will have a negative impact on climate change and global warming in the long term".
"...low oil prices will have a negative impact on climate change and global warming in the long term".
Dr Zarifoglu (contd):
"...lower energy costs for energy-dependent countries such as Turkey, of course, will be positive".
"...lower energy costs for energy-dependent countries such as Turkey, of course, will be positive".
Dr Zarifoglu (contd):
COVID-19 "can be compared with the Cold War period after the Second World War in terms of political and international relations".
COVID-19 "can be compared with the Cold War period after the Second World War in terms of political and international relations".
Dr Zarifoglu (contd):
"Post COVID-19, Turkey is definitely going to become an important and key global actor".
"Post COVID-19, Turkey is definitely going to become an important and key global actor".
From 'Coronavirus and Global Conflict Dynamics' by Dr Talha Köse (Ibn Haldun University):
"The US, European countries, Russia and China competed during the Cold War period, but there were no direct conflicts in these regions and between these actors".
"The US, European countries, Russia and China competed during the Cold War period, but there were no direct conflicts in these regions and between these actors".
Dr Köse (contd):
"These actors (US, European countries, Russia, China) were able to keep hot conflicts outside of their borders and to continue the competition between them via deputies or in a third environment".
"These actors (US, European countries, Russia, China) were able to keep hot conflicts outside of their borders and to continue the competition between them via deputies or in a third environment".
Dr Köse (contd):
"Political and economic uncertainties in world politics after the coronavirus outbreak will increase the likelihood of these actors directly facing each other".
"Political and economic uncertainties in world politics after the coronavirus outbreak will increase the likelihood of these actors directly facing each other".
Dr Köse (contd):
"The impact of the coronavirus outbreak on world conflicts is expected to be higher than other crises in the post-World War II era".
"The impact of the coronavirus outbreak on world conflicts is expected to be higher than other crises in the post-World War II era".
Dr Köse (contd):
"The pandemic, which started as a public health crisis, will show its effects on economies at the first stage and then shift to the political area".
"The pandemic, which started as a public health crisis, will show its effects on economies at the first stage and then shift to the political area".
Dr Köse (contd):
"...mainstream actors in Western politics will be transformed, and actors who cannot keep up will be completely erased from the political scene".
"...mainstream actors in Western politics will be transformed, and actors who cannot keep up will be completely erased from the political scene".
Dr Köse (contd):
"In Europe and the US, the consensus, which is formed between the state, society and economic actors and provides stability, is likely to undergo a structural change in the coming period".
"In Europe and the US, the consensus, which is formed between the state, society and economic actors and provides stability, is likely to undergo a structural change in the coming period".
Dr Köse (contd):
"Political and social polarisations that occured after 2008 are also likely to increase, triggering waves of protest and rebellion".
"Political and social polarisations that occured after 2008 are also likely to increase, triggering waves of protest and rebellion".
Dr Köse (contd):
"Tensions due to increased unemployment and income distribution inequality can trigger protests and conflicts in European cities and the US".
"Tensions due to increased unemployment and income distribution inequality can trigger protests and conflicts in European cities and the US".
Dr Köse (contd):
"If the current risk cannot be managed properly, a deep economic and political crisis may occur at the centre of world politics and economy".
"If the current risk cannot be managed properly, a deep economic and political crisis may occur at the centre of world politics and economy".
Dr Köse (contd):
"Belief in international law and norms has been significantly worn down in recent years, as institutions such as the EU, the UN and the WHO have been ineffective in the face of the current crisis".
"Belief in international law and norms has been significantly worn down in recent years, as institutions such as the EU, the UN and the WHO have been ineffective in the face of the current crisis".
Dr Köse (contd):
"The fact that the US under Donald Trump and the EU, which cannot reach a consensus in itself, cannot exhibit a constructive leadership attitude, reduces the possibility of conflict prevention".
"The fact that the US under Donald Trump and the EU, which cannot reach a consensus in itself, cannot exhibit a constructive leadership attitude, reduces the possibility of conflict prevention".
Dr Köse (contd):
"The Beijing administration seems more willing to play such a leadership role. The view that the pandemic was largely under control in China gives it an advantage".
"The Beijing administration seems more willing to play such a leadership role. The view that the pandemic was largely under control in China gives it an advantage".
Dr Köse (contd):
"However...the second wave of the pandemic may be a source of uncertainty for China".
"However...the second wave of the pandemic may be a source of uncertainty for China".
Dr Köse (contd):
"The mechanisms and processes that will contribute to solving problems by balancing these conflict dynamics are getting weaker".
"The mechanisms and processes that will contribute to solving problems by balancing these conflict dynamics are getting weaker".
Dr Köse (contd):
"...the global power shift will be towards China. Such a power shift has been evident over the past decade. China was taking more confident and even more provocative steps in international politics than previous periods".
"...the global power shift will be towards China. Such a power shift has been evident over the past decade. China was taking more confident and even more provocative steps in international politics than previous periods".
Dr Köse (contd):
"In the upcoming period, competition between China and the US may increase in the South China Sea, Africa and some other regions, and this could escalate with the inclusion of other actors".
"In the upcoming period, competition between China and the US may increase in the South China Sea, Africa and some other regions, and this could escalate with the inclusion of other actors".
Dr Köse (contd):
"...the main parameter to determine China's attitude will be the approaches of the US and Europe to China. In any case, the US will try to prevent or slow down the global power shift towards China".
"...the main parameter to determine China's attitude will be the approaches of the US and Europe to China. In any case, the US will try to prevent or slow down the global power shift towards China".
Dr Köse (contd):
"...the outbreak will further increase the vulnerabilities of weak and fragile states".
"...the outbreak will further increase the vulnerabilities of weak and fragile states".
Dr Köse (contd):
"...Iraq, Lebanon, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia and Malawi and Central American states do not have the necessary infrastructure and capacity to combat this crisis. This will further increase their fragility..."
"...Iraq, Lebanon, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia and Malawi and Central American states do not have the necessary infrastructure and capacity to combat this crisis. This will further increase their fragility..."
Dr Köse (contd):
"In these countries, it may not be possible to provide health services, food security and the supply of basic needs. In such an environment, encountering new waves of protest and conflict or mass deaths is a possible scenario".
"In these countries, it may not be possible to provide health services, food security and the supply of basic needs. In such an environment, encountering new waves of protest and conflict or mass deaths is a possible scenario".
Dr Köse (contd):
"Currently, the lack of solidarity and coordination among key international actors will make it difficult to resolve problems".
"Currently, the lack of solidarity and coordination among key international actors will make it difficult to resolve problems".
From 'What Will COVID-19 Change In The Middle East?' by Dr Nurşin Ateşoğlu Güney (Yıldız Technical University):
The first question is "...how long Iran can continue the militia wars, which is one of the countries most affected by the pandemic?"
The first question is "...how long Iran can continue the militia wars, which is one of the countries most affected by the pandemic?"
Dr Güney (contd):
"Due to the coronavirus pandemic, there will be a decrease in tourism (including religious tourism) revenues. The mobilisation of economic resources for regime security could create a break in the desire to continue cross-border proxy wars".
"Due to the coronavirus pandemic, there will be a decrease in tourism (including religious tourism) revenues. The mobilisation of economic resources for regime security could create a break in the desire to continue cross-border proxy wars".
Dr Güney (contd):
"...a similar difficulty manifests differently for Israel...the Trump administration might divert its economic and political resources into to win the presidential election, rather than the coronavirus, which affects Tel Aviv".
"...a similar difficulty manifests differently for Israel...the Trump administration might divert its economic and political resources into to win the presidential election, rather than the coronavirus, which affects Tel Aviv".
Dr Güney (contd):
"This (US abandonment) may make it difficult for Israel to focus its resources solely on military investments during the period of temporary and compulsory isolation".
"This (US abandonment) may make it difficult for Israel to focus its resources solely on military investments during the period of temporary and compulsory isolation".
Dr Güney (contd):
"As a result of the oil war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, the excessive drop in oil prices naturally reduced the attractiveness of hydrocarbon resources in the Mediterranean Sea to many Western firms".
"As a result of the oil war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, the excessive drop in oil prices naturally reduced the attractiveness of hydrocarbon resources in the Mediterranean Sea to many Western firms".
Dr Güney (contd):
"...regional powers are currently withdrawing from the policy of shaping the region. However, this process of withdrawal is temporary".
"...regional powers are currently withdrawing from the policy of shaping the region. However, this process of withdrawal is temporary".
Dr Güney (contd):
After COVID-19 "...the visibility of the US...will probably decrease in the Middle East".
After COVID-19 "...the visibility of the US...will probably decrease in the Middle East".
Dr Güney (contd):
"...the visibility of Moscow is not expected to decrease visibly like the US, but the freedom of movement of the Kremlin can be significantly reduced in the region".
"...the visibility of Moscow is not expected to decrease visibly like the US, but the freedom of movement of the Kremlin can be significantly reduced in the region".
Dr Güney (contd):
European countries "...could not establish common and collaborative solidarity-based policies within the EU".
European countries "...could not establish common and collaborative solidarity-based policies within the EU".
Dr Güney (contd):
"Britain has seen that although it has left the EU, it cannot easily save itself from the problems caused by geographical proximity".
"Britain has seen that although it has left the EU, it cannot easily save itself from the problems caused by geographical proximity".
Dr Güney (contd):
"Europeans will focus on the economic and intellectual recovery of the EU after the pandemic...This means that utopian and marginal ideas about shaping the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East are on the shelf".
"Europeans will focus on the economic and intellectual recovery of the EU after the pandemic...This means that utopian and marginal ideas about shaping the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East are on the shelf".
Dr Güney (contd):
"I do not think that the world order will have a China-based belt (BRI) because China will be affected by the contraction in the global economy..."
"I do not think that the world order will have a China-based belt (BRI) because China will be affected by the contraction in the global economy..."
Dr Güney (contd):
"Turkey...has launched its soft power in the intermediate neighboring regions and is also providing medical assistance to the Middle East...will open the door to a new cooperation zone based in Turkey..."
"Turkey...has launched its soft power in the intermediate neighboring regions and is also providing medical assistance to the Middle East...will open the door to a new cooperation zone based in Turkey..."
From 'Possible Effects of Coronavirus on the Middle East Region' by Mr Mesut Özcan (Director of DiplomacyAcademy at Turkish MFA):
COVID-19 "will have negative consequences for Middle Eastern countries".
COVID-19 "will have negative consequences for Middle Eastern countries".
Mr Özcan (contd):
"Another factor that complicates the current problems in the Middle East is rapid population growth in the region, associated unemployment and excessive concentration of the population in certain regions..."
"Another factor that complicates the current problems in the Middle East is rapid population growth in the region, associated unemployment and excessive concentration of the population in certain regions..."
Mr Özcan (contd):
"The Arab uprisings that started 10 years ago emerged in connection with the inability of the authoritarian governments in the region to cope with the reflections of the 2008-2009 global economic crisis".
"The Arab uprisings that started 10 years ago emerged in connection with the inability of the authoritarian governments in the region to cope with the reflections of the 2008-2009 global economic crisis".
Mr Özcan (contd):
"Countries that are oil and natural gas producers and whose income is largely covered by the export of natural resources (Gulf, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria) will experience serious economic difficulties due to the decrease in the prices of these products".
"Countries that are oil and natural gas producers and whose income is largely covered by the export of natural resources (Gulf, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria) will experience serious economic difficulties due to the decrease in the prices of these products".
Mr Özcan (contd):
"8 million people in the Arab world could fall into poverty due to this pandemic".
"8 million people in the Arab world could fall into poverty due to this pandemic".
Mr Özcan (contd):
"...general support programmes of international institutions will help Middle Eastern countries. If Turkey also extends state support, it could yield positive results".
"...general support programmes of international institutions will help Middle Eastern countries. If Turkey also extends state support, it could yield positive results".
Mr Özcan (contd):
"...due to the immigration movements caused by the instability that emerged in the region after the Arab uprisings, European countries will want to support countries that are likely to emigrate in order not to face a similar wave".
"...due to the immigration movements caused by the instability that emerged in the region after the Arab uprisings, European countries will want to support countries that are likely to emigrate in order not to face a similar wave".
Mr Özcan (contd):
"With a population of approximately 100 million, Egypt can evolve into an even more authoritative administration as it becomes economically challenging in the next period".
"With a population of approximately 100 million, Egypt can evolve into an even more authoritative administration as it becomes economically challenging in the next period".
Mr Özcan (contd):
"Decreasing tourism income will require Cairo to fight poverty, not political opposition. The source of the Gulf countries funding Egypt will gradually decrease due to the drop in oil prices".
"Decreasing tourism income will require Cairo to fight poverty, not political opposition. The source of the Gulf countries funding Egypt will gradually decrease due to the drop in oil prices".
Mr Özcan (contd):
"Ongoing relations with the IMF will become more important for the Egyptian economy and social order. Very serious economic difficulties can cause unexpected demonstrations as in 2019".
"Ongoing relations with the IMF will become more important for the Egyptian economy and social order. Very serious economic difficulties can cause unexpected demonstrations as in 2019".
Mr Özcan (contd):
"Maintaining the internal coherence of Tripoli is very important for Turkey. The possibility of increased immigration can scare European countries and push further support for Haftar".
"Maintaining the internal coherence of Tripoli is very important for Turkey. The possibility of increased immigration can scare European countries and push further support for Haftar".
Mr Özcan (contd):
"The difficulties that may arise in Tunisia, which is economically fragile, can push the democratic process into trouble".
"The difficulties that may arise in Tunisia, which is economically fragile, can push the democratic process into trouble".
Mr Özcan (contd):
"Even though the political change after the demonstrations in Algeria has provided a certain stability, pressures of social demands continue. Trust in the government is low...and the infrastructure of the government in the fields of health and economy is weak".
"Even though the political change after the demonstrations in Algeria has provided a certain stability, pressures of social demands continue. Trust in the government is low...and the infrastructure of the government in the fields of health and economy is weak".
Mr Özcan (contd):
"The decline in oil and natural gas prices will be very challenging for Algeria, where Turkish investments and bilateral trade will have negative repercussions".
"The decline in oil and natural gas prices will be very challenging for Algeria, where Turkish investments and bilateral trade will have negative repercussions".
Mr Özcan (contd):
"Morocco is in a relatively better condition and its infrastructure has been stronger than in other countries".
"Morocco is in a relatively better condition and its infrastructure has been stronger than in other countries".
Mr Özcan (contd):
"In the Central Middle East, besides the state collapse in our neighbour Syria, economic problems have affected the areas controlled by the regime in recent months".
"In the Central Middle East, besides the state collapse in our neighbour Syria, economic problems have affected the areas controlled by the regime in recent months".
Mr Özcan (contd):
"The drop in oil prices may lead to a decrease in Iran and Russia's economic support to the regime (Assad's), and consequently a decrease in loyalty to the regime and an increase in regional autonomy demands".
"The drop in oil prices may lead to a decrease in Iran and Russia's economic support to the regime (Assad's), and consequently a decrease in loyalty to the regime and an increase in regional autonomy demands".
Mr Özcan (contd):
"The efforts of the PKK-related SDG to gain legitimacy will continue with the support of the US. Demonstrations in Iraq before the crisis are likely to continue after it..."
"The efforts of the PKK-related SDG to gain legitimacy will continue with the support of the US. Demonstrations in Iraq before the crisis are likely to continue after it..."
Mr Özcan (contd):
"While the economic distress in Jordan increases further, it will be one of the main goals of Israel and Western countries to prevent possible demonstrations and instability".
"While the economic distress in Jordan increases further, it will be one of the main goals of Israel and Western countries to prevent possible demonstrations and instability".
Mr Özcan (contd):
"Israel, which has entered the virus crisis more readily in state capacity, can accelerate its efforts to annex the West Bank. Israel may take advantage of the economic difficulties of Palestinians and try to dictate some legal regulations to them".
"Israel, which has entered the virus crisis more readily in state capacity, can accelerate its efforts to annex the West Bank. Israel may take advantage of the economic difficulties of Palestinians and try to dictate some legal regulations to them".
Mr Özcan (contd):
"Demonstrations in Lebanon will also reappear because the virus crisis will worsen the already disorganised economic situation".
"Demonstrations in Lebanon will also reappear because the virus crisis will worsen the already disorganised economic situation".
Mr Özcan (contd):
"Possible developments in the Gulf region will be the economic difficulties of these countries due to the decrease in oil prices, tourism (for UAE and Saudi Arabia) and a decrease in air transportation".
"Possible developments in the Gulf region will be the economic difficulties of these countries due to the decrease in oil prices, tourism (for UAE and Saudi Arabia) and a decrease in air transportation".
Mr Özcan (contd):
"Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE will continue their efforts to be effective in regional politics with their resources in the short term, but will have to shrink targets in the medium term".
"Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE will continue their efforts to be effective in regional politics with their resources in the short term, but will have to shrink targets in the medium term".
Mr Özcan (contd):
"Iran will also not want to lose its effectiveness in its foreign policy in Syria and Iraq...will be more open to bargaining on regional issues (especially with the US and Israel) as it reduces support for Hezbollah and similar representatives".
"Iran will also not want to lose its effectiveness in its foreign policy in Syria and Iraq...will be more open to bargaining on regional issues (especially with the US and Israel) as it reduces support for Hezbollah and similar representatives".
Mr Özcan (contd):
"If the restrictions on Iran decrease due to the crisis, Tehran may have the opportunity to turn it into an opportunity".
"If the restrictions on Iran decrease due to the crisis, Tehran may have the opportunity to turn it into an opportunity".
Mr Özcan (contd):
"...a future may arise where unemployment in the Middle East is rising, new social shows (incidents) are emerging and possible waves of migration increase".
"...a future may arise where unemployment in the Middle East is rising, new social shows (incidents) are emerging and possible waves of migration increase".
Mr Özcan (contd):
"It is imperative that governments (in the Gulf) use this empowerment for authoritarianism. Such an atmosphere can unfortunately create new crises".
"It is imperative that governments (in the Gulf) use this empowerment for authoritarianism. Such an atmosphere can unfortunately create new crises".
From 'Coronavirus and China' by Mr Kadir Temiz (İstanbul Şehir University):
"...the current Xi Jinping government has successfully overcome the crisis".
"...the current Xi Jinping government has successfully overcome the crisis".
Mr Temiz (contd):
"...the central government has maintained its image in the short term. However, in some city, town and village management units, especially Wuhan, serious reactions have emerged against local administrators".
"...the central government has maintained its image in the short term. However, in some city, town and village management units, especially Wuhan, serious reactions have emerged against local administrators".
Mr Temiz (contd):
"As long as the criticism for the central government remains at a sufficient level, it will not pose a serious problem for regime security".
"As long as the criticism for the central government remains at a sufficient level, it will not pose a serious problem for regime security".
Mr Temiz (contd):
"In the next period, the central government may move the search for political legitimacy to a more ideological field due to increasing economic problems".
"In the next period, the central government may move the search for political legitimacy to a more ideological field due to increasing economic problems".
Mr Temiz (contd):
"China can use the rising nationalism within the world as a trump card against...anti-Chinese discourses. The most important result of this process to continue in the long term may be the return of China to a closed and introverted political system".
"China can use the rising nationalism within the world as a trump card against...anti-Chinese discourses. The most important result of this process to continue in the long term may be the return of China to a closed and introverted political system".
Mr Temiz (contd):
"The forty-year reform process can also be seriously affected..."
"The forty-year reform process can also be seriously affected..."
Mr Temiz (contd):
"A shift in the global supply chain that may occur in especially technology-intensive sectors may undermine China's position as the centre of world production, even if it is not in the short term".
"A shift in the global supply chain that may occur in especially technology-intensive sectors may undermine China's position as the centre of world production, even if it is not in the short term".
Mr Temiz (contd):
"Alternative globalisation proposals, such as China's BRI, may be disrupted in recent years...BRI may suffer a serious image loss".
"Alternative globalisation proposals, such as China's BRI, may be disrupted in recent years...BRI may suffer a serious image loss".
Mr Temiz (contd):
"It can be expected that uninterrupted trade, infrastructure investments and financial support offered by China to BRI countries will also suffer serious injuries in this process".
"It can be expected that uninterrupted trade, infrastructure investments and financial support offered by China to BRI countries will also suffer serious injuries in this process".
Mr Temiz (contd):
"Considering the priorities of the Chinese foreign policy in recent years, the debate on China's role in the international system, especially its relations with major powers, will be reignited".
"Considering the priorities of the Chinese foreign policy in recent years, the debate on China's role in the international system, especially its relations with major powers, will be reignited".
Mr Temiz (contd):
"...late information to international institutions caused WHO not to declare a pandemic at an earlier stage. This has prevented countries such as Italy from developing early relations with China in the near future".
"...late information to international institutions caused WHO not to declare a pandemic at an earlier stage. This has prevented countries such as Italy from developing early relations with China in the near future".
Mr Temiz (contd):
"If the Chinese economy loses momentum within, this new and alternative Chinese globalisation (BRI), which is one of the priorities of Chinese foreign policy, will be interrupted".
"If the Chinese economy loses momentum within, this new and alternative Chinese globalisation (BRI), which is one of the priorities of Chinese foreign policy, will be interrupted".
Mr Temiz (contd):
"As the burden of the crisis in East Asia region is not as heavy as in Europe and the US, anti-Chinese opposition is not very effective".
"As the burden of the crisis in East Asia region is not as heavy as in Europe and the US, anti-Chinese opposition is not very effective".
From 'COVID-19 Pandemic and Migration' by Dr Kadir Onur Unutulmaz (Ankara Social Sciences University):
"...human mobility will decrease significantly and the globalization process will decrease".
"...human mobility will decrease significantly and the globalization process will decrease".
Dr Unutulmaz (contd):
"In the near future, it can be expected that developed countries will intensify similar negative practices and policies against asylum seekers and irregular migrants while trying to attract migrants that they deem necessary for their economies".
"In the near future, it can be expected that developed countries will intensify similar negative practices and policies against asylum seekers and irregular migrants while trying to attract migrants that they deem necessary for their economies".
Dr Unutulmaz (contd):
"...we can expect a decrease in migration due to the economic shrinkage of countries, the decline in globalisation and the formation of more introverted economies...as well as the tendency to return to their country in significant numbers".
"...we can expect a decrease in migration due to the economic shrinkage of countries, the decline in globalisation and the formation of more introverted economies...as well as the tendency to return to their country in significant numbers".
Dr Unutulmaz (contd):
"...refugee camps pose a great risk to all communities, primarily for refugees living in it, and then for refugees who will act in panic and can accelerate the spread of the disease".
"...refugee camps pose a great risk to all communities, primarily for refugees living in it, and then for refugees who will act in panic and can accelerate the spread of the disease".
Dr Unutulmaz (contd):
"In addition to the economic cost of the pandemic for the economy of each country, the economies of remittance-dependent countries can be expected to experience economic crises in the future".
"In addition to the economic cost of the pandemic for the economy of each country, the economies of remittance-dependent countries can be expected to experience economic crises in the future".
Dr Unutulmaz (contd):
"The tendency to benefit from healthcare migrants can fuel high-quality migrant competition".
"The tendency to benefit from healthcare migrants can fuel high-quality migrant competition".
Dr Unutulmaz (contd):
"In the coming period, it may be expected that the already existing international competition to attract highly qualified immigrants to their countries, especially those working in the field of health, will intensify more".
"In the coming period, it may be expected that the already existing international competition to attract highly qualified immigrants to their countries, especially those working in the field of health, will intensify more".
Dr Unutulmaz (contd):
"...groups who want to benefit from central administrations turning all their attention and energies into combatting the epidemic can fuel violence".
"...groups who want to benefit from central administrations turning all their attention and energies into combatting the epidemic can fuel violence".
Dr Unutulmaz (contd):
"...people in conflict zones are less likely to protect themselves from pandemics...This situation increases the immigration of many displaced persons toward refugee areas within their own country or as refugees by leaving their countries".
"...people in conflict zones are less likely to protect themselves from pandemics...This situation increases the immigration of many displaced persons toward refugee areas within their own country or as refugees by leaving their countries".
From 'COVID-19, The New Normal and Digital Diplomacy' by Mr Gökhan Yücel (Adviser to Education Minister):
"As the spread of the virus accelerates, diplomacy becomes viral with the new media".
"As the spread of the virus accelerates, diplomacy becomes viral with the new media".
Mr Yücel (contd):
"...with COVID-19, the 'social distance', which has become a social norm or even a new social contract, has turned modern media and public spaces into 'no man’s zones'".
"...with COVID-19, the 'social distance', which has become a social norm or even a new social contract, has turned modern media and public spaces into 'no man’s zones'".
Mr Yücel (contd):
"Life is largely reduced to science (health data, tackling the pandemic) and fiction (new normal) discussions".
"Life is largely reduced to science (health data, tackling the pandemic) and fiction (new normal) discussions".
Mr Yücel (contd):
"The algorithmic order (non-existent) is increasingly announcing its resilience".
"The algorithmic order (non-existent) is increasingly announcing its resilience".
Mr Yücel (contd):
"...new normally destructive, autonomous, computational, algorithmic and quantum versions of power definitions that are evaluated in diplomacy as 'hard' and 'soft' should be seriously addressed".
"...new normally destructive, autonomous, computational, algorithmic and quantum versions of power definitions that are evaluated in diplomacy as 'hard' and 'soft' should be seriously addressed".
Mr Yücel (contd):
"The COVID-19 outbreak largely digitalises behaviour in the categories of users, customers, citizens, audiences and participants. The concept of power, which forms the basis of diplomacy, is becoming widespread with the advances in technology".
"The COVID-19 outbreak largely digitalises behaviour in the categories of users, customers, citizens, audiences and participants. The concept of power, which forms the basis of diplomacy, is becoming widespread with the advances in technology".
Mr Yücel (contd):
"Speaking of perspectives on the concepts of diplomacy and digital diplomacy, and talking about the future of digital diplomacy definition, the new normal will be determinative".
"Speaking of perspectives on the concepts of diplomacy and digital diplomacy, and talking about the future of digital diplomacy definition, the new normal will be determinative".
Mr Yücel (contd):
"...the accelerating effect of COVID-19 will make the broad definition of digital diplomacy more and more a mainstream stance in international relations".
"...the accelerating effect of COVID-19 will make the broad definition of digital diplomacy more and more a mainstream stance in international relations".
You can read the entire 145-pager document (currently in Turkish only) here:
sam.gov.tr/tr/wp-content/…
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sam.gov.tr/tr/wp-content/…
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