This is part 2 of my first Tweet today on EuroMOMO euromomo.eu/graphs-and-map; I hit send and not (+) and have no idea how to link them. I ended part one "is now substantially higher with about 46,000 added deaths." See below.
Continuing properly... (2) EuroMOMO euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps now gives numbers by mouse-over. Getting values is easier than WebPlotDigitization but still tricky with my laptop and track pad. What I post here has been double checked but EuroMOMO does update. Please do check me!
With these numbers I made a table showing the Excess Deaths for Weeks 8 to 16 of 2020 (26-Feb-20 to 22-Apr-20). Remember Excess Deaths are a count of total deaths for all causes. If COVID related lock-down reduced traffic deaths, they will affect the the total.
The Table shows All Age Deaths and the Deaths Over 65. As of 12 hours ago 111,000 COVID deaths were reported for these EuroMOMO countries. Actual Excess Deaths are 101,079 for All Ages and 100,138 for Over 65. Surprising is that all but 941 of these deaths are over 65 (99%).
A summary of age-range deaths percent for EuroMOMO countries shows 10% of deaths under 65. This is 10 times more than the 1% seen from the EuroMOMO Excess Deaths. Two of many explanations: (1) Lives saved by lock-down, (2) reporting deaths "WITH" coronavirus as "BECAUSE OF".
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As someone who broke the news to Israeli leaders on Sweden’s handling of COVID-19 in Mar. 2020, I am so distressed to be reading this now m.ynet.co.il/articles/hj30k…
When will Homo Sapiens realize that we can never stop a tiny virus & re-engineer human biology by force not smarts?
Please note that the two translation are automatic. I give independent results from Microsoft and Google. The original is in Hebrew.
Taking this opportunity to rejoice in machine translation. It it so worthwhile to get used to its quirks.
Fortunately age-adjusted excess death in Israel for the 75 weeks from 1-Jan-20 to 6-Jun-21 is almost as small as that in Sweden (<2% of natural death in 75 weeks)
Economic, social, medical & educational cost to Israel likely higher than to Sweden.
2/8 Rather than make plots of one measure against another, we get the correlation coefficient of all pairs of measures.
Correlation coefficient, CC, of A to B is same as CC of B to A so table is symmetric. Correlation coefficient of A to A is always 1; it is whited out here.
1/7 Excess death (E) in any period is the difference between the actual all-cause deaths and those that are expected. Expected deaths in the current year, c, can be calculated in many ways. Easiest is to use the data from a few recent years as a reference (we use, 2017 to 2019).
2/7 Data can be used in 3 ways to calculate expected deaths. (1) as average death in the reference years. (2) as average corrected for the change in total population. (3) as average for each age band corrected for its population, what we call age-adjusted.
We use 5 age bands.
3/7 (1) If D(i) is death in reference years i, then expected death in year c is E(c)=average[D(i)]. (2) If P(i) is population; E(c)=P(c)*average[D(i)/P(i)]. (3) If (P(i,j) is population of age band j in year i, D(i,j) the corresponding death; E(c,j)=P(c,j)*average[D(i,j)/P(i,j)]