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Michael Levitt Profile picture
Michael Levitt
@MLevitt_NP2013
Stanford Prof. of Biophysics, Cambridge PhD and DSc, 2013 Chemistry Nobel Laureate (complex systems), FRS & US National Academy member, I code well for my age.
20 subscribers
Jan 16, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Just so Europe does not feel left out, here are some of the larger countries.

All use the same 5.5W sheet
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

Spain 133,000 cases/day at peak on 12-Jan.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d… Italy 181,000 cases/day on peak on 13-Jan.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Jan 16, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
USA Omicron has peaked. Daily new cases on the decline.

Open Sheet:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d… Big states looking good too.

California 130K cases/day at peak on 19-Jan.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Aug 8, 2021 • 5 tweets • 4 min read
As someone who broke the news to Israeli leaders on Sweden’s handling of COVID-19 in Mar. 2020, I am so distressed to be reading this now m.ynet.co.il/articles/hj30k…

When will Homo Sapiens realize that we can never stop a tiny virus & re-engineer human biology by force not smarts? Please note that the two translation are automatic. I give independent results from Microsoft and Google. The original is in Hebrew.

Taking this opportunity to rejoice in machine translation. It it so worthwhile to get used to its quirks.
Jul 11, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1/n
 Growth of COVID-19 outbreaks may seems specialized, but is crucially important.

If growing by commonly used Logistic function, early growth is exponential & forecast of outcome is impossible.

For Gompertz function, growth is slowing from start allowing forecast of end. 2/n
 Described on YouTube year ago, this is still not widely understood


Then we focused on small outbreaks (1000's cases) well-contained in New Zealand and South Korea.

Stimulated by @Marco_Piani & @PienaarJm, we now analyze Lompardy, NYC, UK & Spain.
May 30, 2021 • 9 tweets • 5 min read
I am sure that there will be something that correlates with COVID19 death rate better that the stringency of restrictions.

Finding it is important!

The entire world needs to know what to do the next time there is a serious viral threat. 1/8
 Interesting replies led me to carefully analyze data in @youyanggu GitHub table. Alway more objective when one collects data, another analyses it.

Looking at data so first tidy table in Excel.

Color formatting is red-yellow-green low value to high. Image
Mar 21, 2021 • 7 tweets • 6 min read
1/7
 Excess death (E) in any period is the difference between the actual all-cause deaths and those that are expected. Expected deaths in the current year, c, can be calculated in many ways. Easiest is to use the data from a few recent years as a reference (we use, 2017 to 2019). 2/7
 Data can be used in 3 ways to calculate expected deaths.
(1) as average death in the reference years.
(2) as average corrected for the change in total population.
(3) as average for each age band corrected for its population, what we call age-adjusted.

We use 5 age bands.
Mar 11, 2021 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Thanks all. Link is ynet.co.il/news/article/B…

Your analyses in reply to @AlexBerenson are wonderful.

I worry that the number of deaths (0, 1 & 2 vaccines) averages 46/day for first 6 weeks. Real Israeli deaths then are 171/day, 3.7X more.

Something is wrong. Please help me. @ynetnews @adiryanko @Blitz20191 @AlexBerenson @MatanHolzer @dvir_a @boulderfish
Sorry I missed you analyses. Just for a little sanity check. In Israel there are ~45,000 deaths each year (about 124/day). This year expected 47,000/year or 129/day. Where are missing deaths?
·
Jul 27, 2020 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Excess deaths are related to total all-cause deaths. While subject to recording delays, this number avoids all uncertainty about what caused death. Often reported each week, total death can be converted to excess by subtracting a baseline of the total number of deaths expected. The baseline can be calculated as an average over earlier years or even simply be the totals for a different year. Deaths can be reported anywhere but a larger population makes numbers more certain. The total death is shown here for Europe (350 million) euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps.
May 27, 2020 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
Here is my clearer analysis of the Population Fatality Rate (PFR) related to influential predictions by Ferguson et al. 2020. It use data released by the Chinese CDC on 14Apr20 @ChinaCDCWeekly, not full-text indexed by Google @Google but released in The @guardian on 1Mar20. ImageImageImage Here is the evidence showing Google still does not full-text index this essential report. The Guardian @guardian finally gave CCDC @chinacdc age-range death numbers on 1 Apr. weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/…
theguardian.com/world/2020/mar… Vulnerability of OLDER people is not even headlined! ImageImageImage
May 16, 2020 • 5 tweets • 6 min read
@EdConwaySky @benton328 @phil_luttazi @KielRobinson @CeeMacBee @ScottGottliebMD @CT_Bergstrom @BuckSexton @nataliexdean @sav_says_ @JamesOKeefeIII @NAChristakis Europe's COVID19 Excess Deaths plateau at 153,006, 15% more than 17/18 Flu with same age range counts. Details follow ImageImageImageImage EuroMOMO euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps Excess Deaths from 2020 Week 8 now match reported COVID Deaths @JHUSystems perfectly (better than 2%). In earlier weeks the reported deaths were lower. Not sure why? It allows me to do this in depth analysis & comparison with EuroMOMO influenza. Image
May 7, 2020 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
"Comparative Analysis of COVID-19". Stanford group of 5 is well-supported by @StanfordMed & @NIH. Three helped part-time: Andrea Scaiewicz @andreascaie, Frédéric Poitevin @fredericpoitev1 , João Rodrigues @jpglmrodrigues . Also Francesco Zonta @Cescoxonta (at @ShanghaiTechUni Image The app was written in Python by Andrea Scaiewicz advised by João Rodrigues. It is research software allowing comparison of all locations with >50 deaths or >3000 cases (see examples). Response is slow as freely hosted by heroku @heroku. Tested too little, it is likely buggy. ImageImageImageImage
Apr 27, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
This is part 2 of my first Tweet today on EuroMOMO euromomo.eu/graphs-and-map; I hit send and not (+) and have no idea how to link them. I ended part one "is now substantially higher with about 46,000 added deaths." See below. Image Continuing properly... (2) EuroMOMO euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps now gives numbers by mouse-over. Getting values is easier than WebPlotDigitization but still tricky with my laptop and track pad. What I post here has been double checked but EuroMOMO does update. Please do check me!