The phrase "rookie corner rule" has popped up in my thread a few times recently. To my understanding, it's a #FFIDP platitude whereby a rookie CB will be tested by QBs and see more action, resulting in more opportunities for INTs, PBUs, and tackles of receptions allowed. (1/4)
Two sharp #FFIDP analysts whose work I admire believe Jeff Okudah could "benefit" (i.e., attract more targets and/or score more fantasy points, at least early in 2020. Two more analysts, whose work I also admire, refute the existence of the "rookie corner rule." (2/4)
So, I couldn't help myself! I crunched some numbers for 2019. I found rookie CBs allowed 5.0% more targets and 7.5% more receptions per coverage snap than vets. 🤓
In the context of 30 coverage snaps (about a game's worth), those are very marginal gains. (3/4)
In the context of 30 coverage snaps (about a game's worth), those are very marginal gains. (3/4)
Looking for an edge? The average slot defender faces 4.95 targets per 30 coverage snaps and allows 3.47 receptions. I expect Justin Coleman, the Lions' slot defender who finished among top-20 fantasy CBs in 2019, will again be the Lions' CB to roster rather than Okudah. (4/4)
EDIT
I just found that the chart I posted in 3 of 4 didn't take. Here are the data again:
I just found that the chart I posted in 3 of 4 didn't take. Here are the data again:
