People on the right seem to misunderstand what "reopening America" is about.
It's not about it being safe outside.
It's about *hospital capacity*—whether hospitals have room for you if/when you go outside and get sick.
Until there's a vaccine, social contact remains dangerous.
It's not about it being safe outside.
It's about *hospital capacity*—whether hospitals have room for you if/when you go outside and get sick.
Until there's a vaccine, social contact remains dangerous.
PS/ Media—for all the podcasts, primetime specials, and PSAs—still gives the impression that if or when infection and death rates drop, it means going outside is *notably* safer. What it really means is that, if you get sick, there's reliably a hospital bed with your name on it.
PS2/ Remember that 25% to 75% of those with COVID-19 are asymptomatic; symptoms can take 5+ days to appear; and virtually no one is getting tested. Even declining "reported infection and death rates" give us little sense how many we might come in contact with outside who are ill.
PS3/ Declining "reported infection and death rates" are great; increased testing is great; lower hospitalization rates are great. But they're "great" because they mean hospitals *have enough capacity*—*not* because they indicate non-socially distant interactions outside are safe.
PS4/ So when your GOP governor says, "We're reopening because infection, death, and hospitalization rates are below a certain level," they're *not* saying "these rates are low enough that it's safe outside," they're saying "at these rates, we can hospitalize you if you get sick."
PS5/ Since we don't yet know the mortality rate for COVID-19, *no one* should be thinking, "Well, as long as you can hospitalize me if I get sick..." So even when states "reopen," only those with *no choice* but to be outside and in contact with others should—it would seem—be so.
PS6/ I won't address CFR here, as even if you look at studies on the CFR of H1N1, you find that different scientists in different nations—assessing things different ways—came up with literally hundreds of different numbers. My point is that, pre-vaccine, social contact is unsafe.
PS7/ Per research, COVID-19 travels up to 16 feet when expelled from the mouth; can hang in the air for an unknown duration; and can stay on surfaces—depending on how porous they are—for 3+ days. So no one should pretend keeping socially distant is anything but a *huge* obstacle.
