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All McDonalds in Japan to cease in-store dining.

japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/04/2…
I think my new response to "So things went really well in Japan, huh?" will be "You can't eat in any McDonalds in the country."

It's very, very far from the worst problem, but you don't need any level of knowledge to understand what that observation says about ground truth.
Masks sufficient? Every McDonalds is closed.

Bowing helps? Every McDonalds is closed.

No real lockdown? Every McDonalds is closed.

Barely any cases? Every McDonalds is closed.

Cutting-edge healthcare? Every McDonalds is closed.

"You're alarmist"? Every McDonalds is closed.
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Patrick McKenzie
@patio11
Third study we have with similar conclusions: ~6% serological positive result in Tokyo.

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Previously:

Correction: this is about the 2nd study, so it is not another new confirmatory data point.

(My bad for this; didn't realize identifying information matched on first glance.)
Read 3 tweets
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Patrick McKenzie
@patio11
My policy has been keeping the door open, signposting ~50% reply rates, explicitly encouraging people to help prioritize by e.g. re-pinging, turning common good questions into public artifacts, and attempting to accept the implications of scarcity while doing one's best.
This is a question everyone who works in public has to deal with sooner or later, and there are a variety of strategies for it. I generally support people making whatever tradeoffs make sense for their situation, but since the world benefits from more transparency here, *tweet*.
"About how much email do you get?"

On the order of 10 non-trivial emails a day. Heavily variable depending on degree of public activity, various cycles relevant to my audience and institutions which matter to them, etc.

"About how much time have you spent on this?"

~Xk hours.
Read 4 tweets
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Patrick McKenzie
@patio11
The Dagger and the Coin series is rapidly becoming one of my favorite ever. (Elevator pitch: banking + dragons. Obviously, my objectivity is compromised.)

It is the rare work that grows in ambition over time and simultaneously in skill to meet it.
I don't want to spoil why but let me say that the central conceit of the series remains the central conceit of the series, has layers to it both in the plot and in the meta-plot that seem entirely earned rather than attempts to avoid retreading old ground, and gets *literary.*
Also quite possibly the best series I've ever read where every POV character thoroughly believes that they are the center of the story that most matters in the universe, which is a piece of writing advice mostly observed in the breach.
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