This is so true. I often hear PMs saying I should have had that one after something we discussed goes up 50% without anyone owning it. The fact that no one bought it meant no one had sufficient conviction on the name. More often than not, I realise sometimes, certain names you..
..can pitch day and night and it remains impossible to convince someone to buy it. Cause any individual idea don't always click with everyone. What looks appealing to you depends on your own education as an investor. What worked for you before, what didn't. What insights you..
..feel you have, what you don't. Personally, I never gained comfort in buying banks despite how sticky the business is because gfc taught me many are black boxes and a lot of the economics could be driven by rates which I had no clue about. Someone else that started life as a..
..financial analyst, on the other hand, could get be a lot more comfortable with those names. I guess what I'm saying is, ideas can't be forced. You need to let ideas come to you. At some pt you keep studying it and then one day, a switch just turns the light bulb on and the..
..bull or bear thesis becomes clear. For me, most of my highest conviction ideas were ones I was previously on the fence or even in the bear camp. But it's over months and sometimes years of education. That the light bulb just came on. $nflx is classic one as I hated it for cash
..burn.. But after chatting with multiple stakeholders across different regions in media, the switch turned on and I realised shucks, this thing actually has a proper moat & fcf is only a matter of time. @aapl too has been a 10 year lesson for me in investing. And it's only after
.. Studying brands and luxury in the last year that I think I now appreciate it's core moat. All goes back to branding. So yea.. Can't agree more with Ian here that not all ideas are for you and we can only keep broadening our circle of competence to seed insights that
might turn on our light bulb for the next high conviction idea that hopefully works
