Thread by @compound100x

1. Thread on why i'm raising cash into the bounce⬇️

Caveat I'm not a healthcare expert but my views are conclusions drawn from multiple reports.. Long story short, this thing is not under control in US:
- US’s response thus far remains incoherent and uncoordinated

2. across states. They are not implementing as strict a measure as nationwide lockdown that China did, neither are they running the aggressive test, trace and quarantine measures of Korea/Taiwan/Singapore

- Some argue that multiple states being locked down and test capacity

3. ramping as signs that response is better and situation is under control. But i think it will get worse because of following:
- States “locked down”: New Yorkers are leaving the city, likely resulting in cross-state transmission (quarantine orders in place for New Yorkers

4. leaving town but no clear enforcement plans. Despite lock down, people are still out to parks etc. in contrast to the lock downs we see in Europe and had seen in China
- Testing has ramped in places like NYC but not consistently across all states. Shortage of test, swab,

5. component, reagents still an issue. Without aggressive ramp, there is no eyes on the virus and transmission continues. US is not tracking, tracing, quarantine clusters to the extend of successful Asian countries either
- Politicians still debating between getting economy back

6. online when the war in hospitals barely started. Priorities remain wrong.. As Gates said, you can’t have the best of both worlds,: "It’s very tough to say to people, ‘Hey, keep going to restaurants, go buy new houses, ignore that pile of bodies over in the corner. We want you

7. to keep spending because there’s maybe a politician who thinks [gross domestic product] GDP growth is what really counts,’” Gates said, adding that a shutdown may need to remain in place for six to 10 weeks.

8. This is the best article I have seen on COVID response thus far. medium.com/@tomaspueyo/co…. The solution to solving the healthcare and economic problems are the same solution, right now people are thinking its different. And until people realise it is the same,

9. it will likely get worse before better. You can only solve the economy when you solve the virus, and the exponential virus issue means you cannot solve for both concurrently

Many others smarter folks have articulated better, i share some gd ones below

10. "Regardless of what it is that you or I care most about, the best path to fixing it is the same"
@WRGuinn
epsilontheory.com/when-the-story…

11. "What does not appear to have happened anywhere across the West is any sort of meaningful action until it was far too late."
@benthompson
stratechery.com/2020/compaq-an…

12. "But the economy cannot be fixed without solving the pandemic. Only after the virus is contained can we reopen restaurants, bars, gyms and stores; allow people to travel, attend conferences and visit museums; and persuade them to buy cars and houses."
nytimes.com/2020/03/23/opi…

13. And everyday a state delays a lock down increases the likelihood of another Wuhan in US.
fox10tv.com/news/coronavir…

14. Everyday a politician thinks this way.. its 2 steps back for containment..
"Texas' lieutenant governor suggests grandparents are willing to die for US economy"

usatoday.com/story/news/nat…

/end.

Everyday of inconsistent state response buys time for virus to spread further into the community and makes a nationwide shut down increasingly the only solution down the line to tackle an exponentially challenging outbreak.. It is only the start of the crisis..