It may help to understand how close current valuations are to the worst moments in investment history, and how far they are from "attractive" ones.
10-year S&P 500 nominal total return projection is back below zero (as on 4/17). Internals still ragged.
I know you don't care.
10-year S&P 500 nominal total return projection is back below zero (as on 4/17). Internals still ragged.
I know you don't care.
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It's almost like I get so many identical "what about" questions that I wish people would read my stuff.
It's almost like I get so many identical "what about" questions that I wish people would read my stuff.
Distinction. Distinction. Distinction. Distinction. Distinction.
Let's be really clear. Safe liquidity is an "inferior" asset only if investors are inclined toward speculation. If the uniformity of market internals improves, one can defer near-term concerns about valuation.
Let's be really clear. Safe liquidity is an "inferior" asset only if investors are inclined toward speculation. If the uniformity of market internals improves, one can defer near-term concerns about valuation.
Note this now. YES. We can suspend a near-term bearish outlook if our measures of market internals improve.
But overbought rallies in overvalued, risk-averse conditions are not your friends - EVEN when the Fed is easing, as they did the whole way down in 2000-02 & 2007-09.
But overbought rallies in overvalued, risk-averse conditions are not your friends - EVEN when the Fed is easing, as they did the whole way down in 2000-02 & 2007-09.
