Thread by @NiskanenCenter

NEW: @RachelBitecofer has released her 2020 congressional forecast. Her conclusion: Republicans should brace themselves for the possibility of a Democratic-controlled Senate. niskanencenter.org/negative-parti…

A blue tsunami is the likely outcome even if states are unable to mobilize to vote by mail in November 2020. Take what happened this year in Wisconsin as an example.

If more Democrats and left-leaning independents vote than did so in 2016 AND if pure independents break against Trump and congressional Republicans, Democrats are poised to expand on their House majority and could take control of the Senate.

Bitecofer’s model is based on “negative partisanship:” the idea that the determination to vote out the opposition drives Americans to the polls...not the issues. That gives the Democrats, as the “out of power” party, a coalitional advantage.

Negative partisanship means that in 2020 (in places where partisan competition is equalized) the coalition that is angrier and/or more frightened will win the battle, even when voting infrastructure is manipulated to discourage participation.

In 2018, Republicans suffered from having an unpopular leader, demographic changes, and the mere fact that they were the party in power. They stood to be at a similar advantage this year.

Now add the effects of the pandemic. “Voters are likely to forgive Trump the crisis itself, but they will judge him on how he, and by extension, his party, handles the response, a record that is already plagued with allegations of mismanagement."
nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/…

She continues: “COVID-19 has leveled both the American and global economies, and America’s weak social welfare infrastructure and Republican control of the Senate have blunted the types of aid being made available to displaced workers.”

MOREOVER, Republican-led states like GA are reopening their states even in the midst of rising infection and death rates. By the fall, this could work against them in the eyes of the voters, as the pandemic continues to play out.

Indeed, we’ve already witnessed something unprecedented in terms of the public’s reaction to the crisis: a near total lack of what is known as the “rally around the flag effect, where people support their leaders during a crisis.
businessinsider.com/trump-approval…

That the public is so critical of Trump now speaks uniquely to how they see Trump’s handling of the crisis. And this does not bode well for Republicans.

That said, we live in a polarized era. And while Republicans are suffering from a lack of goodwill, the support of their base will provide them a much-needed cushion.

Given all of these factors, can Democrats flip the Senate? Bitecofer thinks it’s possible, even likely, if they pursue a stellar campaign strategy.

Starting the cycle with 47 seats, Democrats appear to need just 3-4 seats to win control, and Bitecofer predicts that they’ll pick up 3 seats. The hardest of these 3 to win will be Maine; they’ll be likely to win seats in AZ and CO.

Democrat success in winning a seat in Maine will depend on how closely they associate Susan Collins w/ Trump. In addition to Maine, they’ll need one more seat to secure a Senate flip, as the incumbent democrat, Doug Jones is likely to lose his seat in AL.

Bitecofer lays out 5 possibilities, showing where that seat could come from. Read her commentary and take a look at her forecast to see which districts are likely to flip this November.
niskanencenter.org/negative-parti…