Thread by @thedailybeast

Coronavirus lockdowns are a matter of life and death—we know because we ran the numbers.

Epidemiologists and computer scientists at Harvard and MIT prepared models that demonstrate the effect lifting lockdowns could have on COVID-19 death rates. trib.al/QE54vRv

In Georgia, the COVID-19 death toll currently stands at 871 (as of 4/28).

The models show that Gov. Brian Kemp’s scheme to reopen Georgia may cost thousands of lives. In contrast, earlier lockdowns could have saved them.

We’ll help you break it down. trib.al/QE54vRv

If Georgia…

- returned to 50% pre-pandemic activity, the death toll could be between 1,604 and 4,236 deaths

- returned to 100% pre-pandemic activity, the death toll could be between 4,279 and 9,748 deaths

Read more: trib.al/QE54vRv

If Georgia….

- maintained it’s lockdown policy, the death toll could be between 1,004 and 2,922 by June 15

- instituted an earlier lockdown, the death toll could be between 148 and 427 deaths

Read more: trib.al/QE54vRv

Now let's do Florida.

The current death toll stands at 987 (as of 4/28).

Gov. Ron DeSantis has mostly kept his state’s social distancing measures in place while allowing localities to reopen beaches. trib.al/QE54vRv

If Florida returned to pre-pandemic levels, the models show the death toll could be as high as 15,523.

Meanwhile, an earlier lockdown could have kept the death toll as low as 103.

Read more: trib.al/QE54vRv

What about Mississippi? The state’s death toll is at 201 (as of 4/28).

Gov. Tate Reeves signed a decree keeping gyms, salons, and theaters closed while allowing retail stores to open at 50% capacity. trib.al/QE54vRv

That specific Mississippi law isn’t reflected in the models generated by Harvard and MIT, but the shutdown effects still remain.

Read more: trib.al/QE54vRv

Read our excellent reporting by @OliviaMesser and @WillBredderman and the full analysis based on the COVID-19 models for Georgia, Florida, and Mississippi here: trib.al/QE54vRv