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There's a new study out that says 6% of Miami-Dade county residents are COVID Antibody +.
Is that a surprise? Does it mean the disease is way more widespread than expected?
miamiherald.com/news/coronavir…
1/n
There's a new study out that says 6% of Miami-Dade county residents are COVID Antibody +.
Is that a surprise? Does it mean the disease is way more widespread than expected?
miamiherald.com/news/coronavir…
1/n
Some data:
@statnews tracker says that there are 11,570 people known to be infected with COVID19 in M-D county.
There are 2.7 million people who live in M-D county.
So that means 0.43% of the population known to be COVID19 +
2/4
@statnews tracker says that there are 11,570 people known to be infected with COVID19 in M-D county.
There are 2.7 million people who live in M-D county.
So that means 0.43% of the population known to be COVID19 +
2/4
Math
0.43% by PCR
6% by antibody
So 14X people have had the infection as identified based on PCR testing.
In NYC, that number is about 13X.
Because of under-testing, I and others have argued that true number is 10-20X the identified cases
These studies in line that
3/4
0.43% by PCR
6% by antibody
So 14X people have had the infection as identified based on PCR testing.
In NYC, that number is about 13X.
Because of under-testing, I and others have argued that true number is 10-20X the identified cases
These studies in line that
3/4
So what does this mean?
Nationalized, M-D study suggests between 3% & 6% of the US population has been infected w SARS-CoV2
Lots of other issues to tackle including sampling, specificity, that ignoring for now.
Bottom line: Early in outbreak. No where near herd immunity
Fin
Nationalized, M-D study suggests between 3% & 6% of the US population has been infected w SARS-CoV2
Lots of other issues to tackle including sampling, specificity, that ignoring for now.
Bottom line: Early in outbreak. No where near herd immunity
Fin
