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LE BASI ARITMETICHE: 3d 1/3

NON E' POSSIBILE 150K terapie intensive l'8 Giugno!!!!!
questo stiamo leggendo

OK Ipotesi

4 Maggio: ALL OUT NO ACTIONS
Contatti MEDI: 20
R0=3
Implied Attack Rate: 15%

TI=1% INFETTATI
INFETTATI TARGET: 15mln(25%)
HERD IMMUNITY: 67% population
2/3
 Suscettibilita' omogenea
Incubazione 6gg
Onset of symptons 2.5gg
Time to ICU 7-9gg

IL CANDIDATO CALCOLI IL NUMERO DI PARTENZA NECESSARIO AD ARRIVARE A 15mn/150K INFETTATI/TI l'8 GIUGNO
3/3
 O IN ALTERNATIVA PARTENDO DA 1 INFETTATO CALCOLI I GIORNI NECESSARI A RAGGIUNGER 15 MLN/150K INFETTATI/TI

Saluti

Spoiler 1, 30-32gg

@ThManfredi @CrossWordsCW
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More from @gianlucac1 see all

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gianluca c 🏴‍☠️🇻🇪
@gianlucac1
Il PIANO SEGRETO (???) COVID19: 1/

apparantemente il Governo e' dal 12 febbraio in possesso di una simulazione (il piano segreto lol) che proietta il numero di morti per (con?) Covid19 sotto diverse condizioni.

Le condizioni in epidemiologia sono BOTTLENECKS e ACTIONS,
2/
 e includono dispositivi, social distancing, lockdowns di vario tipo, posti letto in ospedale, terapie intensive etc

Lo studio è simile se non identico a studi di Imperial college, CDC, Harvard etc etc

Le famose curve da FLATTARE, coi picchi, i morti etc
3/
 studi a disposizione di tutti gli italiani su internet nei vari siti ufficiali

Nello scenario che chiamero' "let it go perche tanto e' influenza" si sarebbero stimati 400K morti e (dico io) circa 40mln di infettati. Probabilmente in 3 mesi.

Pare si sia deciso di nn dirlo ...
Read 8 tweets
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gianluca c 🏴‍☠️🇻🇪
@gianlucac1
WHY R0 IN ITALY/LOMBARDY IS STILL HIGH? ONE POSSIBLE REASON 3d 1/8

this 3d welcomes criticism.

Since the outbreak started, Italy adopted "quarantine at home" policy

Currently 80K mild cases are quarantined at home

The national lockdown started on the 20th of March
Since then, as work from @ciro @mtizzoni and team showed, compliance has been pretty succesful showing decrease of movements to the tune of 84%

here covid19mm.github.io/in-progress/20…

so why on earth R0 in italy/lombardia is R0 still circa 1?
2/
R0 can be represented by

Secondary Attack Rate (SAR) times Contacts

and can be broken down in 4 components
R0 Household
R0 Work
R0 Schooling
Ro Community

crossing Ciro and Michele work with google location, since the lockdown started we know that social contacts due to 3/
Read 10 tweets
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gianluca c 🏴‍☠️🇻🇪
@gianlucac1
CALLING BULLSHIT: ITALIAN VERSION

HOME QUARANTINING: MISTAKE

We dont have any data on SAR (secondary attack rate)

but it is quite astonishing that after 20 days from a full lockdown we still have 4000 daily cases circa
Centralized quarantining started the 1st of February in China. Lockdown the 23rd of January.

As many studies showed, lockdown reduces daily contacts, but cant do little to reduce family contacts
It is likely that people working on essential activities represent a chunk of the current contagion chain

But it is sure that the infection between family members is contributing, if newly infected people are quarantined at home.
Read 4 tweets

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