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It’s looking likely the national state of emergency gets extended, possibly for months depending on the degree of attainment on reducing human-to-human contact.

www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2020…
Japan’s simplest way of measuring this has been asking the cell phone providers to give anonymized usage data for major commuting chokepoints and shopping districts in cities.
The target reduction is 80% less contact from normal, and the messaged expectation has been that would lead to an 80% reduction in rate of growth within 15 days. 65% would imply 2+ months.

We do not appear to have achieved those numbers consistently yet, though some cities close
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Patrick McKenzie
@patio11
I think we’re excessively surprised as to what happens if you e.g. read literally every book in the library on WWII.

Intuitively, we know what is likely to happen. We discount the possibility of it happening for a 10 year old to protect our understanding of the status of adults.
One level out from “I totally believe a bright 10 year old could memorize literally every capital ship in the Imperial Japanese navy by outline; that would be an unexceptional level of expertise or dedication to bring to Minecraft”, what does this suggest about nudges to make?
Because I think one level out from “Some ten year olds can have graduate student levels of understanding of raw historical facts, but we can’t acknowledge that” is probably “Some ten year olds can be about as productive as graduate students at e.g. programming X models, but...”
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Patrick McKenzie
@patio11
Third study we have with similar conclusions: ~6% serological positive result in Tokyo.

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Previously:

Correction: this is about the 2nd study, so it is not another new confirmatory data point.

(My bad for this; didn't realize identifying information matched on first glance.)
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Patrick McKenzie
@patio11
My policy has been keeping the door open, signposting ~50% reply rates, explicitly encouraging people to help prioritize by e.g. re-pinging, turning common good questions into public artifacts, and attempting to accept the implications of scarcity while doing one's best.
This is a question everyone who works in public has to deal with sooner or later, and there are a variety of strategies for it. I generally support people making whatever tradeoffs make sense for their situation, but since the world benefits from more transparency here, *tweet*.
"About how much email do you get?"

On the order of 10 non-trivial emails a day. Heavily variable depending on degree of public activity, various cycles relevant to my audience and institutions which matter to them, etc.

"About how much time have you spent on this?"

~Xk hours.
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