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Extraordinary, record breaking French (-5.8%) and Spanish (-5.2%) GDP fall in Q1 - will be broken again in Q2 though. Sign of the tremendous economic hit, but also earlier and more adhered to lockdowns...
ECB President @lagarde warns eurozone economy could contract 5-12% this year depending on length of pandemic & shutdowns...
Now 30 million initial claims for unemployment insurance in the US, after this week’s data came in at 3.8 million...
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Non-announcement of start of quarantine, and then subsequent exemption of France in joint statement from quarantine that wasn’t announced v curious. Worth remembering in late March there was a similar conversation where France was set to close border...
Earlier in the month France exempted UK from its quarantine...
In general terms these discussions on quarantine will become very difficult health, economic, and diplomatic balancing acts... logically it will be countries where virus is under control and tracked, who will apply them to areas where it is not. Interesting dilemmas re, eg US.
Read 3 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
PM’s speech:

Little changed. The core decision, is that lockdown remains, PM is prioritising public health over quick reopening of economy.

But he’s also trying to get business/ workers to use discretion in existing non-watertight lockdown, to maximise econ reopening... /1
Ie... he again warned of the “madness” of risking a second peak of the virus, and said this “sketch of a plan” was being driven by science and health, not by “economic necessity”...
In saying that workers should by default, go back to work, rather than “stay at home” that is a “change of emphasis” as he puts it - but possibly more relevant for scaling down of furlough scheme...
Read 12 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
PM: “by adopting those measures we prevented this country from being engulfed by what could have been a catastrophe in which the reasonable worst case scenario was half a million fatalities”
PM: “madness now to throw away that achievement by allowing a second spike.
We must stay alert.... we must also recognise that this campaign against the virus has come at colossal cost to our way of life.”
PM calls it: “the shape of a plan to address both fears [health and economic].
Both to beat the virus and provide the first sketch of a road map for reopening society.”
Read 11 tweets

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