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Someone sent me this. From treasury and estimates job losses over three lockdown periods . Seems SA looking at between 2,5 million jobs lost and just over 7 million. Believe the source. This is economic depression type stuff. 1/3
I am not sure who and what goes but we have 16,4 million employed take 7 million away then we are at 9,4 million employed or just one out of four adults working (remember adults includes students, housewives etc) That would push unemployment up to 17,4 2/3
Add 600k new enterants and we have double the number unemployed (broad definition) at 18,4 million to employed! With children etc every employed person will have to carry 6 others! Up from 3,7 now! So even if you work you will be poor - yes that's depression. Weeping now. 3/3
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mike schussler
@mikeschussler
looking at Covid19 cases per million population vs the median age.( Excluding small population countries). One can see that the higher the age generally the higher the number of cases per million people. 1/5
SA is in Red and pretty much where one would expect it to be. SA median age is 27,1 and the group of countries with an median age between 25 and 30 is 276 cases per million. SA is at 77 cases per million. highest average is over 45 years which equals 1752 cases per million 2/5
At the bottom are those countries whose median age is below 20 years of age have 18 cases per million people. So age does play a role in number of covid cases we get. maybe not enough testing in young countries but as we go up in age cases tend to get more 3/5
Read 5 tweets
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mike schussler
@mikeschussler
If SA has the same percentage of job losses that the USA currently has experienced SA will lose 2.768 million jobs! meaning employment drops from 16,42 to 13,65 million employed. If all the new job losers join the unemployment queue then the unemployment numbers will rise 1/7
from 10,38 million to 13,148 million. While SA also gets about net 600 000 new entrants into the job market every year, the unemployment number by year-end would rise to 13.75 million. SA could have more unemployed adults than employed! 2/7
As the labour force excludes the not economically active, such as students and homemakers, the percentage of adults working could drop to 34% from 42%. That means for every adult working two would not be working. 3/7
Read 8 tweets
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mike schussler
@mikeschussler
I do not know enough but I know stats well enough. The peak of the epidemic in the world seems over for now. In the USA total deaths is not the 2,2 million first predicted and far lower than the revised 1,1 million predicted. The mainstream panic is not justified. 1
Other mainly top-rated scientists around the world are now making their voices clear. Latest ones are in Hamburg. They say the numbers do not justify the fear abendblatt.de/hamburg/articl… (use google translate) 2
The head of statistics and virology at Stanford University has stated the same Read it here: medrxiv.org/content/10.110… Stanford professor of medicine John Ioannidis is the top of the top in this game. Far more experience than the very young team at London Imperial College 3
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