NEW interim forecast says state revenues will collapse 18.2%-23.7% this quarter--creating a shortfall of $319- $496 million--and then 10.5%-17.2% the next two quarters of the new fisc year.
Kentucky needs Congress to step in with *much more* in fiscal relief. #statecovidrelief
Kentucky needs Congress to step in with *much more* in fiscal relief. #statecovidrelief
Corporate taxes projected will fall especially--from 68%-79% this quarter. Sales taxes will fall 18%-20% and individual income taxes 5%-13%. The lottery will drop 32%, property tax 14%, coal severance 46% and other 28%. All massive declines.
Road Fund receipts will also crater, falling 36.8%-55.2% in April-June compared to the prior year. The gas tax will fall 33.6%-52.1% and the usage tax (based on car sales) will fall 52.5%-72.1%. That creates a Road Fund shortfall between $116 million and $195 million this year.
Here's the report: osbd.ky.gov/Publications/Q…
These numbers suggest total shortfalls below the forecast through December alone of $930 million-$1.493 billion. And there will be more declines after December. 
Congress hasn't provided anywhere close to that amount of federal aid so far. Treasury prohibited states from using the Coronavirus Relief Fund money to close revenue gaps caused by the coronavirus.
Given the levels of unemployment we're seeing in Kentucky, these numbers may well prove conservative. If we don't want budget cuts and layoffs to drag down our economy further, we need Congress to do its duty by providing much more in aid, and fast #statecovidrelief
