In one week Kentucky voters will deliver a verdict on Amendment 2, which if passed would allow public dollars to be diverted to private schools. Here’s what you need to know: 👇1/ Amendment 2 gives politicians a blank check to redirect public money to private education. It’s written with no guardrails on what it will cost & how wealthy a household can be to benefit. It’ll allow policies that take $ away from the public schools that serve 90% of KY kids. 2/

Important to know that paying the full costs of busing kids to & from school is a state responsibility under law. But it's one the legislature has skipped since 2005. Despite billions now in the rainy day fund, the state still pays only 70% of these costs in the current budget. The numbers in the graph mean this: if the state had been fulfilling its responsibility to fund transportation, JCPS would've had 82% more state dollars over the last three years dedicated specifically to hiring and retaining bus drivers, and 43% more this year.

Today the Senate is expected to vote on cutting the income tax to 4%. The top rate was 6% from 1936 to 2018. The income tax funds 41% of the state budget, & we've heard of no plan--& no viable options--to replace the enormous lost revenue from continuing to cut it. 1/ The legislature applied the sales tax to about 35 new services last year. But that raises only $1 in revenue for every $12 we lose from reducing the income tax to 4%. 2/

Senate A&R now amending a bill to apparently again make the highly ineffective and expensive film tax credit refundable at a cost of $75 million a year, giving away a massive amount of money on an idea that was never given a public hearing or introduced as a bill. #sewage In addition, Kentucky will be required to refund federal aid equal to the cost of all tax cuts and tax breaks like the film tax credit because of the new provisions of the American Rescue Plan. A double hit to our budget. #kyga21

The new budget would bar the governor from spending the $2.4 billion to the state as well as the $185 million for capital projects that support work, education and health (i.e. remote work, telehealth) without the General Assembly's authorization.

https://twitter.com/joesonka/status/1370742929774551040

Similar language was not included in last year's budget which was enacted after the CARES Act passed. The governor used the Coronavirus Relief Fund from that act throughout the rest of the year to shore up the budget, address the public health crisis, and provide aid.

NEW interim forecast says state revenues will collapse 18.2%-23.7% this quarter--creating a shortfall of $319- $496 million--and then 10.5%-17.2% the next two quarters of the new fisc year.

Kentucky needs Congress to step in with *much more* in fiscal relief. #statecovidrelief Corporate taxes projected will fall especially--from 68%-79% this quarter. Sales taxes will fall 18%-20% and individual income taxes 5%-13%. The lottery will drop 32%, property tax 14%, coal severance 46% and other 28%. All massive declines.

As we approach a possible special session on pensions and quasi-governmental organizations, let's reflect on how we got here--and specifically the assumption changes the KRS board made in 2017. <thread> Assumptions are long term & should apply to a ~30 year period. Given that, the pre-2017 assumptions were not way out of line. For KERS NH, the investment assumption was 6.75% (just lowered from 7.5%), nearly the lowest in US at the time & below what plan has earned historically.

False claims of a crisis & even insolvency for the pension plans because of today's Supreme Court ruling. Let's be clear: those saying so have no analysis to back them up. (1/6) First of all, KY's retirements plans have $38 billion in assets in total (money that is invested). Those funds have built up through past contributions as well as investment returns. That's an amount equal to 18% of KY's entire economy. Not money that's about to run out. (2/6)