Our new analysis of COVID-19 effects on CO2 emissions. Under a "base case" where things recover quickly, 2020 emissions will fall ~5%. If outbreak lingers and recovery is slower they fall 8%. 2021 is much more uncertain but emissions likely below 2019: 1/9 thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/… 
This report provides a new estimate of likely country-level CO2 emissions in 2020 and 2021 as a result of COVID-19, using four GDP scenarios developed by the IMF: 2/9
We forecast CO2 emissions based both on GDP projections and the historical rate of decarbonization in each country (along with its uncertainties). We estimate US emissions will fall by 9% (4% to 14%) in the most optimistic "base case"; much more if the pandemic lingers. 3/9
We also look at how estimates of COVID-19 impacts on CO2 have increased over time in subsequent studies. Note that there is also a new IEA estimate out today of 8%, similar to our results for the "longer outbreak" scenario. 4/9 carbonbrief.org/iea-coronaviru…
Despite the largest drop in global CO2 emissions ever recorded, the crisis will have minimal effects on CO2 concentrations and warming, which are based much more on the total (cumulative) emissions that have ever occurred than our emissions in a single year. 5/9
This also illustrates the staggering cost of emissions reductions through decreasing economic activity. The effective “cost” per ton of CO2 reduced is around $1,750, exceeding mitigation costs of virtually every clean energy tech by order(s) of magnitude. 6/9
The fact that the biggest global economic contraction since the Great Depression will not make a dent in future warming should be sobering. 7/9
It highlights that we need to change the way we build human prosperity – by replacing fossil fuels with clean energy – rather than purposefully shrinking the economy if we want to make a sustainable, long-term reduction in CO2 emissions. 8/9
Theres also real risk that economic downturn could slow down investments in clean tech, leading to higher emissions in the long-run – particularly if countries do not prioritize job creation measures with decarbonization co-benefits as part of economic recovery efforts. 9/9
