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Gallup showing Trump at 49/47 approval split helps make a point about something I just noticed yesterday - if you toggle between polls of adults (like Gallup) and registered/likely voters on 538 avg, Trump's approval is now better among all adults. Used to be the opposite
538 all polls Trump approve/disapprove: 42.9/52.4
All adults avg: 43.6/51.7
Likely/registered voters: 42.7/52.7.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval…
Trendlines shown here. You can see how all adults was usually worse than RV/LV -- Gallup itself is probably a big part of that, as it had Trump's approval generally weaker than many in the past but now better. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval…
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Kyle Kondik
@kkondik
Crystal Ball: The combined top-two voting in CA House races can sometimes give us some clues for the fall. Let me take you through some of what I found (thread) centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…
First of all, we made three rating changes in CA today. All of them benefited Republicans:

CA-25 special Leans D > Toss-up
Devin Nunes (R, CA-22) Likely R > Safe R
Tom McClintock (R, CA-4) Likely R > Safe R
The CA-25 special change has much more to do with the election circumstances than the top-2 results from the primary, which I think were perfectly fine for the Ds. More here (the CA-25 stuff is mostly at the end of the piece) centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…
Read 14 tweets
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Kyle Kondik
@kkondik
1. I've got a broad primary overview in the Crystal Ball today, detailing the road from tonight through early June, and the marathon to the magic number of 1,991 delegates. There are eight stages as I see them. Let's take a look (thread) centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…
2. The first stage is the carve-out states of IA/NH/NV/SC. Big on PR value, but not really in delegates. Not even 4% of the total pledged delegates are awarded this month. I call this stage "The Sizzle Before the Steak"
3. Super Tuesday follows, where a little over a third of all the pledged delegates will be awarded. The closest thing to a national primary we have. The initial headlines out of CA might not match the eventual results there, which won't be finalized until weeks after
Read 11 tweets
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Kyle Kondik
@kkondik
1.The impeachment saga really reminds me of the Merrick Garland nomination. They both expose how what seem like hard limits in our governing system often are actually soft limits – or, rather, aren’t limits at all (a thread)
2.In the case of Garland, McConnell and Senate Rs grasped that there were no legal requirements for them to vote on Garland, or even hold hearings. They acted accordingly.
3. Reasonable people can argue that they SHOULD have handled it differently. But because they were not REQUIRED to handle it differently, they did not.
Read 16 tweets

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