Predicting 72k deaths in total by the end of the current wave (predicted to be in 1 month) doesn't pass an elementary smell test. We're at 62.5k right now and growing by >2000 per day. New cases at 25k-30k per day, guaranteeing deaths will stay in that range for the new few weeks
That model is assuming a sudden, dramatic drop in the next few weeks. No empirical data that I've seen supports this hypothesis.
Every expert model I've seen since mid March has seemed completely irrational
Every expert model I've seen since mid March has seemed completely irrational
At first, you could justify it by saying, "they didn't much data to work from, so the variance was high". This is no longer the case
