As I feared, the federal government wasted April much as it wasted February.
That is a harsh assessment given how much the country has been suffering. But without competent federal leadership, the best we are managing is to tread water. Some stats:
First week of April averaged 144k tests/day.
Last week of April averaged 220k tests/day.
At those levels, antibody surveys suggest we're only finding <1 in 10 cases.
That's certainly better than an R of 3 (3 new cases for each existing). But it doesn't put us on a path to containment.
Which suggests that without further measures (more on that in a sec), we could remain on this plateau for quite a while.
If we relax the restrictions too early, death tallies could be much worse.
We must, must, must scale up testing and tracing as well. Without that we are stuck.
This amazing thread lays it out clearly.
But that will be tough to deliver without the feds.
Instead they have to hide their tests and PPE to avoid the feds confiscating them.
They've lost April by failing to lay the foundation for a safe exit from the lockdowns.
Will they lose May as well?