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We are one month away from the official start of hurricane season and if you live anywhere that can be affected by a storm you need to make preparations now.

*I understand this is a big ask given the current economic situation but hurricanes don't care that there is a pandemic.*

You are going to need to rethink your plans. If you live along the coast you probably already have some semblance of a hurricane plan. Go through it step by step. What needs to change now because of the pandemic? (This will look slightly different for everyone.)

1. Where are you getting your information from? Have you been consciously not watching the news because *gestures around* it's stressful? I get it but you need to be aware of any impending weather issues. So, make sure you're signed up for local alerts.

2. What supplies do you need for both sheltering in place and evacuating? Theoretically, you have a 2 week supply of food at home now but is that food you can eat with the power off for a week? You'll also need water.

We aren't crowding into stores the day before. Do this now.

3. Speaking of power. Do you have a generator and gas? Some have speculated that power outages could last longer because of the added challenges of the pandemic.

Also, whatever other supplies you need (medication, etc).

4. Do you have the supplies you need to prep your property for a storm? Boards for windows? Nails? Screws? Rope to tie things down? Sandbags? You can't necessarily just run to the store a few days before a storm like you usually do. You've got to be thinking further ahead.

5. Do you have a plan for sheltering in place on your own? You can't just decide part way into the storm that you're going to go stay at your neighbor's house. There's an added risk.

I swear to god if I see yall having hurricane parties this year!!

6. Assuming you shelter in place, what's your plan for what comes next? What if your house is destroyed and you need to find someplace else to live? Where is that going to be? This is a hard question in non-pandemic times and an even more difficult question now.

7. There are different evacuation scenarios, of course, but let's go big: A mass-evacuation (I'm talking Gustav, Irma, Rita).

This turns into a nightmare really fast.

You need a transportation plan ESPECIALLY if you're reliant on carpooling or public transportation to evacuate. This becomes riskier. You need to check and see what your town's plans are... some of them are reworking their plans so it may be different than last year.

Where are you going to stay? Generally, there are three options and right now, none of them are great. First, you stay with family or friends. You need to communicate with those people now. Are they high risk? Are you high risk? This might not be the year to stay with grandma.

Second, many people stay at hotels/ campgrounds. Are these places open? Many are closed right now and it's not clear if they'll reopen, have staff, etc. If you do stay at a hotel you need to be extra cautious about hanging out in communal spaces.

Third, shelters. Look, the general sentiment seems to be that shelters will try to implement physical distancing as much as possible BUT there are some places that have said they may not open shelters at all. This is an especially dangerous situation with no good options.

You need to figure out now if your town is going to have shelters or not. Of course, we know from research that even when local government/ the Red Cross doesn't open a shelter someone in the community will do it anyway (they're called emergent sheltering).

If people need shelter from a hurricane, they need shelter from a hurricane. But this also means that there won't necessarily be set guidelines on how to safely run these shelters (something the RC is working on) because it's just a random person opening them.

You've found a place to stay and a way to get there but what about the things you need while you're evacuated? Are restaurants closed? Store shelves are already strained. What are you going to do while you're there for a week? What's the impact on the community you're staying in?

A mass evacuation means moving potentially millions of people around the country which truly is the last thing you want to do in a pandemic. Ordering evacuations is always complicated but this is just... nuts.

8. At the same time people leave impacted communities, there's also a convergence of other people into the affected area. This is probably going to look different. We are very reliant in help coming from neighboring communities and states -- this is more difficult now.

Not only is EVERY community in the country already dealing with the response to a pandemic (and therefore has strained resources) but there's also a greater risk for them to send their first responders, etc. to a place where they may get sick.

This is not at all to say help won't come. We know that people are pro-social in disasters and as we've already seen with the tornadoes people are still volunteering... it's just less and different than normal. I'd expect that to be the case for a hurricane as well.

9. Right now many (most?) emergency management agencies are operating virtually. That's a perfectly fine idea until everyone loses internet. Emergency operation centers are going to have to be in person for a major hurricane. (I'm interested to hear other ideas here but...)

Once the storm passes there are many tasks that have to happen that traditionally require people to be in close proximity to each other.

10. For those who do not/ cannot evacuate there's search and rescue. Formal SAR teams may have some form of PPE but most SAR is informal.

11. You know those warehouses full of in-kind donations that are an absolute nightmare to manage? Uh-huh. Try that in a pandemic where you possibly have fewer volunteers.

Cash is best, especially in a pandemic.

12. A shortlist of items needed to start gutting homes that have begun to mold: lots of people, masks, PPE suits, and hand sanitizer (in the absence of running water).

It would be funny if this wasn't about a hurricane during a pandemic.

13. There are always places where the community congregates together afterward -- to see each other, to share information, talk to nonprofit/ gov't reps, get a hot meal, pick up in-kind donations, etc. There's got to be a plan for how to do this safely.

14. What does volunteerism in recovery look like? Many disaster nonprofits have paused recovery operations bc of the pandemic. Do they restart? How? You can’t fly volunteers in from across the country. I’m having flashbacks to volunteer camps post-Katrina. No, no, and no.

15. It’s difficult to imagine there not being an outbreak of COVID in the weeks following a hurricane at the same time healthcare systems are destroyed (I would very much like someone in public health to tell me I'm wrong about this but no one has so far.)

I’m going to stop here (not because there isn’t more to say but because I didn’t actually mean to write such a massive thread).

It’s me. A person who perpetually accidentally writes threads that should be an article.

There are many factors at play here. Again, this is a generalization. A hurricane scenario can be much worse or better than whatever you're imagining.

I don’t even want to write out my worst-case scenarios but it involves multiple major hurricanes in multiple major cities in the middle of a second wave.

I’m sure I sound like a broken record but the US emergency management system is not ready for this…

I don't say that to scare you but rather to inspire you to do what you can to prepare.

(BTW, this is not for lack of many emergency managers trying. Building the type of capacity this requires takes YEARS. Public officials have NOT made that kind of investment.)

We’ve got (generally) a month to figure this out. Emergency managers have to be re-writing plans but so do individuals and nonprofits and businesses. AND YALL HAVE TO COMMUNICATE THOSE PLANS TO EACH OTHER.

***I realize asking people to figure this out in a pandemic when so many people have lost jobs/ incomes is ridiculous but I also know what could happen so you're going to have to think this through***

***Hurricanes, like COVID and all disasters, are not great equalizers. Some people & communities are significantly more vulnerable than others. In this instance, I’m most concerned about anyone who falls into the high-risk category and low-income folks.

Quarantelli, a pioneer of disaster sociology, wrote that “Social scientists studying disasters ought to be able to predict at least in general terms the future.”

I'm having nightmares about this, guys.

Please take it seriously.

@ByAdamWagner

@ByAdamWagner

A number of journalists have been covering these issues related to all hazards. Here are some of the hurricane ones.

@ByAdamWagner writing about North Carolina:
newsobserver.com/news/local/art…