This week's @Equifax @EquifaxInsights weekly 🇺🇸household debt update is now out. 📉🙏
🚨THEY'VE ADDED DATA ON ORIGINATIONS INCLUDING SPLITS BY CREDIT RISK AND WE ARE SEEING IMPORTANT STUFF!🚨
Here's my take.
1/8
#HouseholdFinance #CoronaVirusIndicators
🚨THEY'VE ADDED DATA ON ORIGINATIONS INCLUDING SPLITS BY CREDIT RISK AND WE ARE SEEING IMPORTANT STUFF!🚨
Here's my take.
1/8
#HouseholdFinance #CoronaVirusIndicators
OUTSTANDING DEBT (to April 20) remains unchanged
Tl; dr my summary from last week still seems the story across products on outstanding stock.
2/8
Tl; dr my summary from last week still seems the story across products on outstanding stock.
2/8
OUTSTANDING CREDIT CARD debt + utilization are still falling sharply 3/n
OUTSTANDING STUDENT LOAN severe delinquency rates continue to plummet due to CARES are now below 3%! 4/8
Now ORIGINATIONS...
CAVEAT: Reporting lags mean data for March + April is v.incomplete: lighter shading = more subject to revision.
It is hard to know whether the declines and risk shifts are really as sharp as implied.
5/8
CAVEAT: Reporting lags mean data for March + April is v.incomplete: lighter shading = more subject to revision.
It is hard to know whether the declines and risk shifts are really as sharp as implied.
5/8
MORTGAGE ORIGINATIONS: Increasingly from prime borrowers (n.b. April figures v.incomplete!).
There's a lot more in the pack if interested (link at end of thread to download). 6/8
There's a lot more in the pack if interested (link at end of thread to download). 6/8
CREDIT CARD ORIGINATIONS: Falling number of originations and rising subprime share.
Remember in aggregate we are seeing declining credit card spending (i.e. lower demand).
Whereas more subprime:prime lending.
HETEROGENEITY MATTERS PEEPS! 7/8
Remember in aggregate we are seeing declining credit card spending (i.e. lower demand).
Whereas more subprime:prime lending.
HETEROGENEITY MATTERS PEEPS! 7/8
From Agarwal Chomsisengphet @nealemahoney @stroebel_econ QJE we expect tightening lending criteria to the riskiest borrowers.
So to see this risk shift likely implies a big fall in low risk demand + understates rise in high risk borrower demand 8/8
So to see this risk shift likely implies a big fall in low risk demand + understates rise in high risk borrower demand 8/8
Download full reports for free:
equifax.com/business/marke…
Paper referenced:
pages.stern.nyu.edu/~jstroebe/PDF/…
equifax.com/business/marke…
Paper referenced:
pages.stern.nyu.edu/~jstroebe/PDF/…
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