Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #debt

Most recents (24)

For hose who still believe that economics is irrelevant to #SinglePayer #healthcare (or to any healthcare ‘plan’ that’s out there), I was once like you. But you and I, and everyone else like us, were/are a critical part of the problem.

Let’s begin. #MMT 1/
No matter what your goal is (starting a business, fighting a war, designing a healthcare system etc) you need the resources neasesary to be successful and accomplish your goal. To the degree that you don’t get the needed resources you will fail to meet that goal on some level. 2/
And how do we get access to resources? Money. 💰is the legal means by which we get resources. So it matters who pays for any endeavor. How much 💴 they can bring to bear is going to have a direct impact on acquiring the needed resources so you can succeed at your goal. 3/
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When someone says the word #SIP, most of us associate it with equity #mutualfunds. But did you know that SIPs are possible in the fixed income asset class as well?
#Debt SIPs can be one of the most useful ways to meet your short term goals, recurring goals, and asset allocation needs.
SIPs in #debtfunds can be used to meet yearly school fees, build an emergency reserve, your annual vacation, regular recurring expenses, working capital, etc.
Read 8 tweets
1/4 The #Tory government has put #disabled & chronically ill people through hell the past 10 years. The reason? To stop fraudulent benefit claims and reduce cost. The outcome? Thousands of us died and thousands more suffered humiliation, #poverty & devastating health implications
2/4 The kick in the teeth is; the benefit reforms and #DWP errors actually cost more than the original fraud. On top of this, the Tory's removed all funding for vital services that many vulnerable people in society relied upon. #ToriesOut #Tories #Health #Benefits
3/4 Austerity measures were supposed to reduce debt and save the UK from financial crisis, yet National #debt is the highest it's ever been. The #NHS is on it's last breath, and many of us fear we will not survive another 4 years of #Tory lies, neglect and abuse. #VoteLabour
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THREAD: Trust. It’s a highly underrated “gut feeling” when a person closes the curtain behind them to vote. I strongly support many of @PeteButtigieg’s policies but here are 4 reasons I simply trust him:
1) He’s not wealthy. I trust someone to prioritize issues like #college affordability if their family has personally struggled with college #debt. Pete has the lowest net worth of any candidate.
2) He’s young. I trust someone to address #ClimateChange if they will likely be around to experience it and to be held accountable for the actions they took or did not take.
Read 6 tweets
India's Bond market is both growing and contracting at the same time. Here's the how and why: (1/n) #bonds #Debt #Banking #StateofIndia
In value terms, bond market (outstanding value of corporate bonds), has grown at around 8.5% YoY in the first half of FY20. That is a slowdown from ~12% growth in FY19, but it is still growth. And overall credit growth in the economy itself has slowed. (2/n) #bonds #StateofIndia
In volume terms though the bond market (outstanding issues of corporate bonds) has been declining for 7 consecutive quarters. The number of outstanding issues are down almost 10% from the peak in September-2017! (3/n) #bonds #Debt #Banking #StateofIndia
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"Up #debt creek without a paddle"
#Iraq's budget’s structural imbalance between current & investment expenditures, as ever-increasing current expenditures will overtake revenues, needs debt to fund this gap.

Data in chart: 2010-2024 IMF estimates & projections.

1/10
#Iraq has been fortunate that higher oil prices & exports led to a budget surplus of over $27.5bn by end of Jul 2019. Revenue-expenditure gap is pushed forward in time. But, it is only a matter of when, not if, expenditures will overtake revenues.



2/10
This structural imbalance needs time be addressed, in the meantime there will be an urgent need to finance both.

The social contract, re-public employment, cannot be broken without creating the conditions for private sector growth to absorb an ever-growing labour force.

3/10
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The double Ds - demographic & debt - & how that leads to the triple Ds - DEFLATION.

Ready?
#demographics World population growth rates are expected to slow, w/ contraction in many places (think Europe, East Asia - Japan, China, South Korea, etc).

We will grow at the slowest pace than anytime since 1950. Growth rate peaked in 1965-1970 👈🏻
#demographics Breaking this down into regions - very clear that Asian population peaking & will fall.

Look at Sub-Saharan Africa. Note that this is a projection & we shouldn't take anything beyond 2050 too seriously. The UN revises this very often but still useful for trends.
Read 25 tweets
Corporate Bond Market in India - A snapshot

Corporate Bond Market comprises of all the debt fund-raising/ financing/ fund mobilisation activities by Corporates through debt capital market instruments - Debentures or Bonds. Read on to know more about this market. Thread 1/12
As per SEBI data, the total outstanding corporate bonds in India aggregate to ~ Rs. 30.63 lakh crore.

This is about one third the size of the G-Sec market as well as the aggregate of Bank credit (i.e. total outstanding loans of banks). 2/12
The accumulated value of all the Corporate Bonds outstanding is only about 16% of the GDP.

In comparison, the size of the US corporate bond market to GDP is ~124%. It shows that the corporates in India rely heavily on banks. 3/12
Read 18 tweets
State Government Debt Risk - a history that repeats too often!

As the work on building Amravati, the new capital city AP, comes to a grinding halt, concerns emerge about Amravati (APCRDA) bonds held by Franklin MF (~Rs. 1000 Cr) and Birla MF (Rs. ~300 Cr). Thread 1/11
During the Chandrababu Govt, Amravati received political as well as financial patronage. Now, with Jagan Reddy being incharge of the state, the project is in shambles. World Bank & ADB pulled out of the project and the Government is looking for reasons to scrap it. 2/n
The bonds issued to support the financing needs of the project were subscribed by Franklin MF and Birla MF. The bonds are guaranteed by the AP Govt but it's not sure if the Govt would keep servicing the bonds. The risk of lending to a state govt has again come to the fore. 3/11
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1/6 As Powell puts in his recent speech, we are “in a world of slow global growth, low inflation, and low interest rates…" and "fac[ing] heightened risks of lengthy, difficult-to-escape periods in which our policy interest rate is pinned near zero.”
2/6 CF40 member Miao Yanliang mentioned in his book that, under a #fiscal policy framework, the #demographic change and pessimistic anticipation collectively contribute to the world characterized by LOW #inflation, LOW #growth and LOW interest rate.
mp.weixin.qq.com/s/6q8SJ9RHmrKh…
3/6 After the global financial #crisis in 2008, major developed countries faced pressure to reduce #deficits, #debt, and private sector #deleveraging. In this context, the macro-policy has shifted from the former #monetary dominance to #fiscal dominance. #macroeconomics
Read 6 tweets
After the buildup and the crash-course in my last post, here is my post analysing Promoter Financing market in India. The analysis attempts to explain the slowdown in promoter financing in India and brings out some interesting facts. Read on to know more. Thread 1/12
As per BSE data, the aggregate value of promoters' pledged shares was ~1.85 lakh crore as at Aug 23, 2019. In comparison, the value of promoters' pledged shares stood at ~Rs 2.5 lakh crore as at Aug 30, 2018. The fall in pledge levels indicate slowdown in promoter financing. 2/12
An ET article (July 22), observed that 'pledging of shares by promoters of NSE companies dropped to a six-year low'. Another ET article (Aug 15), noted that 'interest rates on loans against shares (LAS) have surged by about 300 basis points in the past 3 months'. 3/12
Read 18 tweets
This post is a crash course on promoter funding, which serves as a bedrock for my next post.

Promoter funding/ financing, is the colloquial term used for raising of debt funds by Promoters of companies usually against the security/ comfort of shares. Thread 1/13
A promoter, many a times, needs money for (a) equity infusion in a new/ growing business, (b) personal use (c) enhancing stake in established business (d) family settlement etc.

If he doesn't have enough cash at his disposal, he borrows from finance firms. 2/13
The most liquid and widely accepted collateral/ security for these borrowings are shares of established (usually listed) companies.

These shares are pledged to the financing firm (or a trustee) to avail of the debt facility. 3/13
Read 18 tweets
Rana Kapoor's Grandstanding

The Economic Times, today, on its front page, carried a news item proclaiming 'Rana Kapoor holding companies pre-pay part of loans'. Nothing can be more misleading than the use of word 'pre-pay'. Thread 1/8

m.economictimes.com/markets/stocks…
The article quotes Mr. Kapoor's statement that bonds issued by promoter hold cos - Yes Capital and Morgan Credits, have been pre-paid ahead of maturity dates i.e. Oct 2020 and Apr 2021 respectively. 2/8
The clever use of 'maturity date' to imply voluntary prepayment hides the fact that these facilities were probably pre-paid owing to the pressure of fund managers (Franklin and Reliance MF) on account of failure of these hold cos to meet the obligations under the facility. 3/8
Read 12 tweets
Today I cover the Government Securities (G-Secs) market. G-Secs, in short, are debt instruments through which Government borrows from the public (banks, financial institutions etc.). This post covers the size, type of lenders, and other broad contours of G-Sec market. Thread 1/8
The total size of the G-Sec market is approx. 92.86 lakh crore. In comparison, the size of the listed equity market (total market capitalisation of all listed stocks) was 141.47 lakh crore in July, 2019. (2/8)
Out of the total borrowing of Rs. 92.86 lakh crore, ~ Rs. 64.49 lakh crore borrowing is from Central Govt and the remaining Rs. 28.37 lakh crore borrowing is from State Govts i.e. of the the total borrowings 69.45 % is from Central Govt and 30.55 % is from State Govts. (3/8)
Read 11 tweets
I am revisiting the topic of Public Issue of Non-Convertible Debentures (NCDs) covered a couple of days back. Only this time, I am focusing on Subordinated (Tier II) NCDs that are slipped in (sometimes slyly) along with senior secured NCDs of NBFCs. Thread (1/9)
Refer to the picture, below (the pic is representative only). A subordinated NCD (circled in red) appears as one of the many maturity options. A naive investor may think that it is similar to other NCDs on offer, just that it has a longer maturity. (2/9)
What many investors are unaware of is the fact that subordinated NCDs are paid after senior NCD holders in-case the company goes into liquidation i.e. subscribers to option I to VIII NCDs, in the pic above, would be paid before payments are made to option IX to XI NCDs. (3/9)
Read 13 tweets
There have been a flurry of public issue of NCDs lately. These issues are primarily from NBFCs who are finding it tough to raise funds though banks and MFs. Here, I explain why the public issue NCDs are not in the interest of retail investors. Thread (1/9)
A) There is a common misconception that public issue NCDs are akin to Fixed Deposits (FDs). FDs of PSU banks are covered under the umbrella limit of 1 lakh deposit insurance. NCDs are not. A case in point is the expected loss to retail investors in DHFL public issue NCDs. 2/9
B) The rate offered by these NBFCs in public issue is much lower than what they offer in privately placed deals. Further, a substantial fee is cornered by brokers for selling these NCDs to retail investors. 3/9
Read 13 tweets
Vacation time 🙂I'm currently in beautiful Oregon, US. Been flying, rafting, hiking, eating and playing with the kids - great time! Now - small break to update myself on the markets. Stay tuned for some #HZupdates
Where the #USD goes, rest of the market follows! Getting the direction of USD right is key. This is how I see #DXY short term. Further downside to develop - with target ~95.0. This is likely a major bottom - before DXY explodes higher #HZupdates
Following the ST weakness in #DXY, I think we will see much higher levels coming , as the shortage of USDs in the financial system becomes very clear. The target remains 107-109 - pot. higher to be reached some time around Mid-2020 #HZupdates
Read 19 tweets
Good morning all! 🙂 Morning in Copenhagen - listening to Ludovico while I'm updating analyses and family sleeps. Fantastic piece of music: #AllisGood
Time for some #HZupdates. Let's take a look at the market from the way I see it. Where is that deflation, I have been forecasting? Did CBs succeed to do their magic and eliminate that threat? What about the Kondratiev's winter - over/done? Stay tuned! 🙂
AUDUSD is inflation gauge. Rally=inflation up; Decline=inflation down. LT perspective looks like this. Decline in 2008 = wave A. Rally up to 2011 = wave B. We have since been in wave C. Wave 5 will take us to ~0.5. Note the horizontal line. When this goes -->free fall #HZupdates
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I'm supporting a neighbour through #ESA assessment #dwp #maximus homevisit denied despite written medical evidence he has #agorophobia severe anxiety chronic depression #mentalheath
If he can't go all #benefits stopped he has young children #poverty
#classwar #dwpmurders #JC4PM
Thanku everyone for your lovely replies I'll update u soon just nipping to sit with Barry while his partner goesmto go as she is I'll with the stress of it all
I appreciate all your support xxxx
Gp not go x
Read 69 tweets
#UniversalCreditUncovered Week 3: this is what the DWP’s ad campaign says people should do while waiting for #UniversalCredit. But an advance is a loan that has to be repaid. It’s not the solution to the wait - in fact, repaying it can push people further into hardship. 1/5
We're working with debt charity @StepChange as part of the #5WeeksTooLong campaign so this week we’ve joined forces to highlight why so many people are forced into needless #debt because of the 5-week wait. Read our new joint briefing here: 2/5 trusselltrust.org/wp-content/upl…
Why is repaying an advance a problem? People’s ability to afford repayments isn’t taken into account; even small deductions have a big impact when people are living on a knife edge; & people can be hit by multiple repayments. This can push people further into #poverty. 3/5
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1) It’s #BibleStudyCoffeeTime.
Parshas Behar (Leviticus 25:1-26:2; supplemental reading Jeremiah 32:6-32:27)

May 25, 2019
2) The focus of this portion is on restraining our greed.
3) We learn about the concept of Shemittah, the Sabbatical year; every 7 years we stop working the land and let it be free of human intervention.
Read 29 tweets
Great talk by @martinwolf_ at the 46th Economics Conference @oenb @suerf_org on escaping the #trap: secular #stagnation, monetary #policy and financial fragility
Before the outbreak of the global financial crisis @martinwolf_ saw himself as an orthodox economist - now suggests to read Minsky, Godley et al.
'Everything depends on everything else' - eternal truth by @martinwolf_
Read 9 tweets
Hi #fintwit 😎 We are approaching a watershed moment in markets. Final deflationary phase of Kondratiev's winter is about to play out. Huge implications for #EUR, #Gold, #SP500, #DXY etc. I have some new interesting followers - hence something extra in this week's #HZupdates
#Kondratiev's winter is a period where #Velocity of Money drops which creates a disinflationary economic environment, where growth is subdued due to #debt levels. Since ~2000 we have been in this winter - and are still to see a range of "major economic events" unfold #HZupdates
In fact, we have never left the #Financial #Crisis. We have only been bouncing in the great "Financial and Sovereign Debt Crisis" of this #Kondratiev's winter. This can be observed from the #Deflation Gauges #Copper, #XAU, AUD, EUR. We are about to see wave C develop #HZupdates
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Amidst the #JetAirwaysCrisis that we are in today, some timely wisdom from Herb Kelleher (co-founder at Southwest Airlines) on debt, profitability, market share, and running an airline.
Southwest Airlines has never had a loss for a full year since 1972 and never furloughed an employee when the rest of the industry up until now has probably furloughed about a million-and-a-half employees throughout the world.
"Basically we looked at history and said this is a very dicey business to be in. So we may be flamboyant from the marketing standpoint but we're going to be very conservative from the fiscal standpoint" - Herb Kelleher
Read 9 tweets

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