05/01/2020
- Original plan 7 weeks ago was demand down 70% for 2 months, then recover. Didn’t happen.
- Demand essentially still down 100% with no sign of uptick.
- SWA now planning on a 5 year recovery SWA has 14 Billion cash on hand.
05/01/2020 (cont'd)
- UAL has only 9.6 billion cash
- UAL had 6 billion at start of crisis
- SWA much smaller than UAL
- UAL would have to have 25 billion to match SWA
- UAL must reduce cash burn
- AA & DAL cash burn 70M/day
- UAL burning 45M/day
05/01/2020 (cont'd)
- SWA very aggressive & wants more assets as others collapse: wants to be only carrier in DEN & largest in Chicago.
- Displacement bid for Pilots tomorrow
05/01/2020 (cont'd)
- Hoping for demand to recover by 10/1. If not, drastic action for long term survival.
- Prepare for worse case
- Cost structure must match demand: If demand down 30%, payroll must be down 30%. If demand down 90%,
payroll must be down 90%
05/01/2020 (cont'd)
- Will mitigate with job share, early outs, etc. Innovative plans. Working with unions.
- Gave in to IAM. Now all IAM agents going to 30 hrs/week, not original planned 20.
05/01/2020 (cont'd)
- Say that they can legally cut hours (under CARE). No hourly $ cuts, just the hours worked. IAM fighting back strong, but that’s what they should do, according to Kirby.
- All employee groups will have hours, not dollar, cuts.
05/01/2020 (cont'd)
- Need a vaccine before everyone returns.
- UAL loss was so much bigger than others because of write downs.
- Measure of an airline now is Cash Burn. UAL is beating everyone with the lowest cash burn.
- UAL cash burn down 50%-60%
05/01/2020 (cont'd)
- Took an ax to every expense except employees.
- Nobody knows when demand will return. Still no improvement.
- Most optimistic, still down 30% in October.
- Better picture in June/July.
- Fingers crossed.
05/01/2020 (cont'd)
- Not hedging fuel. Does not work.
- May: UAL 63 int’l flights/week. 9 per day. DAL 50.
- “When you’re going through hell, keep going”. Kirby & Winston Churchill
05/01/2020 (end)
- More hard questions from IAH employees than anywhere else.
- If considering/near retirement be aware that schedules, bids,routes,quality of life,& everything will change.Not going to be anything like schedules & airline life was in the past.