1./ A thread about COVID-19 and whether Scotland should be more like Sweden. If you follow Scottish affairs you'll know Scandinavia has long inspired the SNP. Here's activist @LesleyRiddoch waxing lyrical on Swedish radio about just that. sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.a…
2./ She was inspired by Swedish egalitarianism. There's only one thing Swedes love as much: science. When I was in Stockholm for a TV science producers' conference it was opened by @bjornulveus Everyone in Sweden is passionate about science...even that nice bloke from Abba.
3./ But the Swedes are under attack. Their approach to the pandemic is condemned and their liberal attitude that allows hairdressers, gyms and restaurants to stay open lampooned. Here's the latest scare story from @CNN edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2…
4./ Truth is it looks inviting. The country hasn't paid out billions to employers like Victoria Beckham to furlough workers, its economy is still largely intact and the opinion polls show a 10% rise in the popularity of the Social Democrats (led by a former steel worker).
5./ They argue that total lockdown would unfairly impact women and the poor as would the closure of schools. They love their egalitarianism do the Swedes. But here's the astonishing thing: their COVID-19 health outcomes with liberal lockdown are not any worse than Scotland's.
6./ Now first let's be clear this approach would probably not have worked in England. The population density south of the border is much higher and while the Stockholm metro carries 350M people a year London's underground carries 1.3Bn. But Scotland is more comparable.
7./ For while density in Scotland is 65 people per square km & only 25 per km in Sweden remember the Scandinavian nation's land mass is 5 times larger and 85% of Sweden's population is actually urban. Its largest city Stockholm has almost 3 times the population of Glasgow.
8./ So what do you think the saving in lives has been from following the lockdown approach in Scotland as opposed to Sweden where you can go to the gym, meet friends for coffee, kids go to school and up to 50 people can meet if they want to? Err...none actually.
9./ The fairest way to compare countries is by looking at deaths per million of population. Sweden's population is 10.2 M. Scotland's is 5.5M.
Deaths from COVID-19 in Sweden: 2600.
Deaths from COVID-19 in Scotland: 1500
Deaths per million:
Sweden = 254
Scotland = 272
Deaths from COVID-19 in Sweden: 2600.
Deaths from COVID-19 in Scotland: 1500
Deaths per million:
Sweden = 254
Scotland = 272
10./ So the almost total destruction of last swathes of our economy has not saved any lives at all compared to the Swedish more liberal approach. And just to put the absolute difference of 1100 more deaths in Sweden in context, last year 13652 people died in Scotland.
11./ Obviously there are many other factors that make this sort of comparison difficult. Health outcomes, for example, in Scotland are worse than Sweden. Obesity is 10% higher in Scotland (29% to 18%) and that seems to play a major role in deaths. But the median age is the same.
12./ And what this rough and ready comparison can't do is answer how many much death and ill-health (physical and mental) will flow from the much greater damage to the Scottish economy, massively increased unemployment ....and the disruption of schools, education and careers.
13./ We know now that vast swathes of the NHS is effectively doing nothing while the brave ICU teams and COVID wards battle against the disease. Thousands of people fear going to hospital for all the other life-theatening issues they have. And that's not all.
14./ Reports say domestic abuse is up. Social workers are struggling to protect vulnerable children by skype. And the economic disaster that is heading like a tsunami towards us has barely been imagined never mind computed. The Great Depression may have to be renamed.
15. And if a vaccine doesn't come for a year what then? The Swedish CMO estimates that 26% of Swedes are already immune to COVID-19. If and when a second wave strikes in the winter months when everyone is crammed together such immunity may prove vitally important.
16./ Our immunity rates are likely much lower so a second wave could affect us more. Some critics of the UK/ Scottish govts say our death rate is so high because we never went for a total lockdown. Comparisons are hugely difficult but it's not clear lockdown was such a panacea
17./ Or at least not once the virus was circulating widely. Nations calculate C-19 deaths differently but here's per million rates country by country at April 30th. UK was 384, France which had total lockdown was 369, Spain with total lockdown: 524 ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-…
18./ Why does all this matter? I've lost count of the Scots that say they fear the Tories may try to open up the economy too fast. It's in fact a fear shared by the rest of the UK if the BBC's poll is correct that 60% of the public is now afraid to relax lockdown.
19./ The problem is we're caught in a trap. All politicians are vying to sound tough and be the champion of lockdown. Boris included. They're doing us no favours. The SNP could now help Boris and the rest of the UK out of this trap while boosting the Scottish economy.
20./ It's too late to follow the Swedish model and who knows it may not have worked for us two months ago...but we can now learn from their experience and try to apply it. If Swedes can handle a calm, rational, discussion about the balance of the risks surely we can too.
21./ It's time for the Scots with their love of all things Scandinavian to look east again and not to the country with all that oil....we're so obsessed with but instead to the cosmopolitan, urbane and successful trading nation next door that loves science as much as we once did.
