I started keeping an investing journal since 2017 to keep track of my thoughts at various pts of market. Reading through them today, some pretty interesting ones worth sharing:
- Feb 2017: Appears that we are close to the end of a bull run.. at 12% annual, much of my
- Apr 2017: Markets are just going up up and up.. feels like 2007? What to do with 30% cash..
- Jul 2017: Everyday i'm tempted to buy something.. still hanging with 30% cash
- Aug 2017: Oil has been an interesting lesson. Many said it will bounce back to 80 at some point when it cracked, reasoning that shale is only profitable at certain cost curve. But a lower price environment actually caused more innovation in the space to further squeeze
Nov 2017: 3 years back, I was recommending my friend to get some ETFs, but noted that markets are high and might not be the best time to get it. 2 years back, was discussing with another how we need to hold cash. On hindsight,
Dec 2017: JD continue to see weakness on BABA
Jan 2018: Markets have gone full bull in the first couple weeks of 2018. All indicators are flashing green. People pushing out recession forecast couple years out again
Jun 2018: JD is bouncing out of $35 level low given some
Sep 2018: People are saying JD is bottoming at 25, no clarity on investigation yet, at 23% concentration, i am struggling to add here. Clear sign of bias
Oct 2018: JD trading at 0.2x 2018 sales ex log and finance. What am i missing? or is it just bad sentiments
Oct 2018: Thinking about current rout in JD, lesson in concentration. I bought big
Nov 2018: Look how fast things move. Tencent is back at the 320 level after touching 260. All that bearish
Apr 2019: Folks talking about missing the opp on buying this and tt
Apr 2019: Terry Smith: We don't market time because we know we are not good at it.
Jun 2019: Google antitrust discussion. There is fear that we have 20% more correction to go given momentum, macro outlook etc.. Might make sense to lighten tactically
Jul 2019: What a difference one month makes, discussing Google potentially heading down to $900 and its now back at $1,100. Easy money continues across the world
Aug 2019: Fear is back, market tanked on Trump imposing tariff on $300b more goods. Chinese labelled currency manipulator etc. Yield curve inverted. "Smart" macro
Jan 2020: explosive start to the year as markets rally in full bull mode.. feels like 2018.. beware.. stay true to rules set around sizing and risk management
We all know what happened since Jan 20, but its pretty
Smith, find the good companies, buy at right price and do nothing. And as Buffett reminded us so many times, collect the businesses you'd want to own for LT as if the markets are closed for the next 5 years.
As i was in 2018, can't wait to look back at 2020 in 2022, see how this whole COVID mess shakes out and what consensus thinking now ends up wrong again.
Looking forward for new lessons to be learnt then!