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Moz and Zim troops go on patrol in Cabo Delgado. Why show their exact location? Why are they lined up for easy PKM ambush? Why is the pilot using a cel phone? Why does he have a hole in his pants? Why distribute two identical photos and not crop the foot? Where is that sexy ISR?
Remember Mozambique and the Islamic State are engaged in a battle of narrative and media control. Local soldiers are badly paid, inclined to allow insurgents to raid their stocks and maybe "Sobels": soldiers/rebels...which is why they can "melt away". They live there.
Moz government is systemically corrupt as are police and military forces. The Russians figured out that pretty quick and stick to themselves now. Dog and pony shows (Moz and Zim) with Crashed Mercenary Helicopter sauce splashed on it, is not going to fix Northern Mozambique.
All insurgencies are local. Even if the initial funding, training and manpower is external. Since 2017 someone is determined to get a foothold in the swahili coast. A place that gave momentum to Al Qaeda/IS/AS and continues to grow from Puntland to Pemba.
Much of that growth is the post 9/11 surge in "defeating" centuries old smuggling networks guarded by globally branded "terrorists" as the US and EU entrench themselves. Shaping regional conflicts into global ones and replacing the military metric of"victory" with police work.
In my upcoming book on Africa focusing on my relationship with Joseph Kony and the LRA, I constantly refer to original source documents on Africa and the predictable patterns of movement and commerce. AKA: Explorers didn't really explore they were guided. friendsofmombasa.com/migration-rich…
Outsiders looking to understand the insurgency need a modern day Sidi Mubarak Bombay along with money and patience. He was the man from what is now the Tanzania/Moz border who guided "explorers' along arab trade routes. Sidi would prolly say "polepole". theguardian.com/education/2009…
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