The second explanation here -- that the UT model is timing the peak based on the assumption that lockdowns extend indefinitely -- is the correct one. I know this b/c this is what the UT person behind the model has said. I don't want to scoop myself so more on this next week.
If you take the UT model and plug in a reasonable expectation of what relaxing the quarantine measures will do to transmission, it shows things ramping right back up again and us having to lock right back down again.
So yeah, this is exactly what many of the models, UT specifically but also others, are doing and why they show us peaking now. And as we relax restrictions, the models will change & the peak will move back ahead into the future.
The Discourse right at this moment is giving me serious deja vu from February & March. I was watching everyone be in complete denial about what was next, & it was like I was on crazy pills. Same vibe for me this week.
The experts have been real clear about what's going on and what's coming next, all you gotta do is listen to them, watch their webinars, and read their papers. We will ramp up again and we will try to lock down again (whether anyone cooperates w/a second lockdown is 🤷♂️).
And when states try to lock back down again this summer, people will either cooperate & we will flatten out the curve again, or they will not & we will fill up the ICUs in more cities.
All of this is obvious to everyone who is actually following what the experts are saying.
All of this is obvious to everyone who is actually following what the experts are saying.
People who think we've beat this & are done with it, as if it's a hurricane or an earthquake that is now over with, are high. The market, which seems to think we've beat it, is also high. Bookmark this. Take it to the bank. There will either be more lockdowns or more corpses.
I agree with this, largely. I do not think the second lockdown will work out quite as well as the first. I could add another major reason to this list but, again, I am writing about this & don't want to scoop myself.
