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The way the Trump admin's favored model keeps predicting a rapid decline in cases that doesn't happen reminds me of monetary projections after 2010, when the Fed kept predicting a normalization of interest rates that kept not happening 1/
Wrong forecasts happen to everyone. If you keep being wrong in the same direction, you need to rethink your model! 2/
Gah. Forgot to include the link in the 1st tweet 3/ vox.com/future-perfect…
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Paul Krugman
@paulkrugman
Are other people feeling the same sense of doom I'm feeling? On the epidemiological front, the virus is still rampant yet political pressure for rapid, careless reopening —and going maskless — mounting 1/
On the economic side, indications that unemployment heading toward 25%, yet Trump and Senate Rs determined to snatch away safety net 2/ sites.google.com/view/covid-rps/
Obviously huge uncertainty, but rising odds for a nightmare this fall — still high and maybe surging deaths, mass financial hardship. Lack of leadership may take a terrible toll 3/
Read 4 tweets
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Paul Krugman
@paulkrugman
Trump has been unable to shift away from boosterism, from pretending that everything is great on his watch, even in a pandemic 1/ nytimes.com/2020/05/21/opi…
What's remarkable is that this isn't just a crime, it's a mistake. During the brief period when it seemed as if Trump might be taking Covid-19 seriously, his approval surged, only to collapse as he reverted to type 2/ abcnews.go.com/Politics/black…
Ezra Klein finds it puzzling that conservatives, who are usually more fearful than liberals, are so dismissive of the coronavirus. Applies to Trump, too: remember his talk of "American carnage" in an era of <20K homicides per year 3/ vox.com/2020/5/21/2126…
Read 6 tweets
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Paul Krugman
@paulkrugman
Today's broadcast, "Who's afraid of the big bad debt?", going up shortly. Let me share a couple of slides that may also be relevant to today's column 1/ krugmantoday.com
First, when people ask how we'll pay back the debt incurred as we respond to Covid-19, or suggest that debt over 100 percent of GDP would be disastrous, consider the history of the UK in the mid-20th century 2/
Britain emerged from World War II with debt of more than 250 percent of GDP. It didn't have a debt crisis. And it never paid off that debt, just rolled it over. However, debt as a share of GDP eroded as the economy grew. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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