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These are service sectors apparently gaining from lower tariffs, the US scarcely eats lamb, there are significant non-tariff barriers to dairy imports (which are unlikely to be addressed in any US trade deal), and 1.8bn / 32.5m = £56, but apart from that...
Another report this morning suggested the UK could gain from lower US car tariffs. Which are currently 2.5%. Or financial services regulatory alignment, never included in US trade deals. I think it leaves ceramics where US tariffs are high and we could gain from reduction.
Meanwhile the SME chapter in the existing US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement contains commitments to cooperate and provide information, which could be done without a trade deal...
Anyway here's the entirely unconvincing argument for a US trade deal. Point being, few of the barriers to UK exports to the US are addressable in a trade deal unless the US breaks all precedents (e.g. open up Buy America). As I recall from 3 years work... express.co.uk/comment/expres…
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Reminder of my rather long thead yesterday on UK-US trade talks. There's not much in it economically, even less for UK exporters. The best thing the US could do for the UK right now is to stop trying to destroy the global trading system.
Sam's argument for UK Free Trade Agreements is we need them if other countries (particularly the US) are likely to break WTO commitments. Some sympathy, but you have to then think carefully about what UK interests actually are and how you protect them
The biggest problem with the UK's Free Trade Agreement negotiations is trying to fix trade relationships this year covering 70% of our trade without knowing what we want. So our primary ask is zero tariffs. For a services economy. And FTAs are hard to change once agreed.
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
UK-US trade talks start this week. So why is this better than the UK-EU negotiation (or not depending on yr Brexit view), how do you judge a trade agreement anyway, what's in it for the UK, and why might UK-US be chlorinated chicken for plates? Settle down for a while... 1/
Starting point. Schedules at the WTO giving all members equal access to markets in terms of tariffs and services, plus core rules. For a special deal on market access you need a Free Trade Agreement (FTA), which may also set extra rules for bilateral trade. 2/
Thanks to the WTO we know average tariffs. For the US they are 3.4%, for the EU 5.2%. But those averages mask huge variations, agriculture tariffs in the EU average 12%. In the US 5.3%. But this doesn't mean it is necessarily cheaper to export to the US, because regulations... 3/
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Looks like doubling down though the letter also potentially provides an exit route. You'd hope the UK government have thought this through, for although there is no specific right for the EU to have an office in the agreement, they have plenty of other rights.
Timing-wise when you've started one set of major trade talks and are about to start others including with the US, not shy of expressing opinions on Ireland, is an odd time to suggest that you intend to take a literalist approach to international agreement text.
This as well. Now the EU were the first to make a Belfast office a public issue. So both sides are raising tensions. Behind this there are serious concerns in many EU Member States about whether the UK can be trusted (shared by some outside the EU).
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