Remember the people who spent 2008-2014 or so constantly warning about inflation? Well, they're back. And to be fair, this shock is different in important ways. But a lot of the financial crisis lessons still apply 1/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
In particular, I see people pointing to a surge in the money supply as a harbinger of inflation, which is really off-point in a financial crisis 2/ 
We saw the same thing, although not on the same scale, in 2008-9 as bond spreads temporarily soared 3/
This was *not* the Fed exogenously rolling the printing presses. It was private investors fleeing into the haven of presumably safe assets — funds that accumulated as excess bank reserves, which the Fed recycled back into the economy via quantitative easing 4/
Basically the same thing this time. In March Covid-related losses threatened to spill over into a full-scale financial crisis, but the Fed managed to contain it 5/
You can tell stories about how this story might end in inflation. But numbers like money supply and the size of the Fed's balance sheet tell you nothing except that the Fed is doing its job 6/
