1/ 2nd COVID wave?
A 2nd wave happens during a pandemic when the disease infects one group of people first, then infections appear to decrease, & then, infections increase in a different part of the population, resulting in a second wave of infections.
A 2nd wave happens during a pandemic when the disease infects one group of people first, then infections appear to decrease, & then, infections increase in a different part of the population, resulting in a second wave of infections.
2/ The dynamics of waves include peaks & valleys in the frequency & duration of outbreaks of disease.
Drivers in multi-wave epidemics are:
- antigenic drift making immunity less likely
- change in environmental conditions
- social distancing behavior
Drivers in multi-wave epidemics are:
- antigenic drift making immunity less likely
- change in environmental conditions
- social distancing behavior
3/ Infection rates & social contacts within- & across-communities contribute to illnesses spreading in the “early days” of a pandemic that are difficult to estimate &/or track.
COVID's Reinfection Rate "R0" is estimated to be high, ranging from 2.5 -3.5
sltrib.com/news/2020/03/3…
COVID's Reinfection Rate "R0" is estimated to be high, ranging from 2.5 -3.5
sltrib.com/news/2020/03/3…
4/ Epidemiologists, statisticians, etc. produce probabilistic models of multi-wave outbreaks during a pandemic so that predictions – GIVEN CURRENT AVAILABLE CREDIBLE DATA – can allocate requisite medical resources to those hot-spots.
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
5/ Coordination & the exchange information of pandemic research across communities & countries, such as The W.H.O., is CRITICAL during a pandemic to identify the likelihood of multiple epidemic waves.
Trump’s day-trading mentality stopped funding WHO.
Trump’s day-trading mentality stopped funding WHO.
6/ Will COVID immunity stop it?
WHO "... reports of patients testing positive after being released from treatment ...even after the virus is dead, the nucleic acid (RNA) fragments still remain in the cells… reactivation of the virus is not as likely.”
time.com/5810454/corona…
WHO "... reports of patients testing positive after being released from treatment ...even after the virus is dead, the nucleic acid (RNA) fragments still remain in the cells… reactivation of the virus is not as likely.”
time.com/5810454/corona…
7/ But viruses can evolve so “antigenic drift” in COVID is likely.
"..the genetic drift of the S gene is likely to be one of the mechanisms of the adaptation evolution of HCoV-OC43. ... and may have implications in the surveillance of HCoV infections."
nature.com/articles/srep1…
"..the genetic drift of the S gene is likely to be one of the mechanisms of the adaptation evolution of HCoV-OC43. ... and may have implications in the surveillance of HCoV infections."
nature.com/articles/srep1…
8/ Meanwhile Social Contact Tracing & social isolation helps but
"…If it takes a couple days to notify contacts of a positive case... contact tracing becomes much less effective as people unwittingly spread the virus.”
sciencenews.org/article/covid-…
"…If it takes a couple days to notify contacts of a positive case... contact tracing becomes much less effective as people unwittingly spread the virus.”
sciencenews.org/article/covid-…
9/ “Contact Tracing” has been effective – but difficult - in isolating identified cases & controlling the spread in NZ.
"There are two types of ‘contacts’ – close contacts and casual contacts.”
“Most cases of COVID-19 in NZ have come from overseas.”
health.govt.nz/our-work/disea…
"There are two types of ‘contacts’ – close contacts and casual contacts.”
“Most cases of COVID-19 in NZ have come from overseas.”
health.govt.nz/our-work/disea…
10/ Tracking 1st COVID in the USA has been problematic.
2 people w/COVID died in CA "....as many as 3 weeks before the US reported its 1st death...may have led to delays in imposing stay-at-home restrictions in the nation's most populous state."
stuff.co.nz/world/americas…
2 people w/COVID died in CA "....as many as 3 weeks before the US reported its 1st death...may have led to delays in imposing stay-at-home restrictions in the nation's most populous state."
stuff.co.nz/world/americas…
11/ Social isolation & distancing are critical but expensive methods to slow down the rate & hospital burden of COVID.
"Lost jobs, closed businesses & a frozen economy have many people anxious.. to get back to normal."
nbcnews.com/business/econo…
"Lost jobs, closed businesses & a frozen economy have many people anxious.. to get back to normal."
nbcnews.com/business/econo…
12/ How do we stop the 1st COVID wave and prevent a 2nd wave until a credible low-risk vaccine is ready?
Some people think we should just “let it ride” to cull the herd of unwanted American people in our society.
Some people think we should just “let it ride” to cull the herd of unwanted American people in our society.
13/ And some people naively think "culling the herd" won’t include them.
iflscience.com/health-and-med…
iflscience.com/health-and-med…
14/ Others value all members of their neighborhood & society so are reacting to those people who think they aren't infected.
15/ We can practice safe hygiene & social distancing - like staying 6 feet apart because coughing, sneezing, loud talking, singing, (and belly laughs?) will spread COVID
livescience.com/covid19-corona…
livescience.com/covid19-corona…
16/ So, to end COVID pandemic, and hopefully, to avoid the 2nd wave, we need to do multiple things, like social isolation & distancing as well as practice better hygiene.
Questions about social distancing answered here
thespinoff.co.nz/society/17-03-…
Questions about social distancing answered here
thespinoff.co.nz/society/17-03-…
17/
Better hygiene –washing hands, not touching your face, and wearing a mask - are critical to stopping COVID & to avoid the 2nd wave.
How to wash hands:
Better hygiene –washing hands, not touching your face, and wearing a mask - are critical to stopping COVID & to avoid the 2nd wave.
How to wash hands:
18/ How to wear a mask
19/ But legit fears abound that even if we slow COVID now, a 2nd wave will come this Fall.
20/ The fears of a 2nd wave are real because 👇
So we can't predict the peak of the 1st COVID wave let alone predict if and when a 2nd wave will hit us.
22/ A 2nd wave of COVID is likely if we don't learn how to change our behavior during this 1st wave.
♥️Stay well
♥️Wear masks & gloves
♥️Wash your hands
♥️Practice social distancing
♥️Help save the lives of your family, friends, loved ones, neighbors, & our medical communities.
♥️Stay well
♥️Wear masks & gloves
♥️Wash your hands
♥️Practice social distancing
♥️Help save the lives of your family, friends, loved ones, neighbors, & our medical communities.
P.S.
