Germany is moving towards tracing every single case, just like South Korea.
How scientific exchange between four major science institutions brought us here, how this is jeopardized now and what your country can learn from it
#BreakTheChain
THREAD 👇1/11
How scientific exchange between four major science institutions brought us here, how this is jeopardized now and what your country can learn from it
#BreakTheChain
THREAD 👇1/11
On April,29th a high-impact paper favoring containment was published in Germany. The next day Angela Merkel, for the first time, proclaimed a clear epidemiological strategy towards containment following this scientific advice #BreakTheChain 2/11
de.slideshare.net/AlexBeisenherz…
de.slideshare.net/AlexBeisenherz…
2 Days later we had a very strong counter reaction of one of the main German industry asscociations demanding an abandonment of all restrictions by the end of May, which is clearly not scientifically supported and would cost many lives. #BreakTheChain 3/11
The reopening discussion brings us into difficulties, as at the moment we have just below 1000 new Infect./d and are literally on the verge of being able to trace all of them efficiently. If we open prematurely, we will lose this highly advantageous position.#BreakTheChain 4/11
Before containment was reachable we were trying to keep the R-Value at around 1 with our main goal to not exceed the ICU capacities. Many Countries follow exactly this strategy, but it is clearly not advisable for several reasons: 5/11
Severe Restrictions would have to be in place until effective treatment/vaccine
Almost impossibe to keep the R-Value in a narrow range, every small increase in R-Value above 1 will trigger new exponential growth
Temporary lock-downs highly probable 6/11
Almost impossibe to keep the R-Value in a narrow range, every small increase in R-Value above 1 will trigger new exponential growth
Temporary lock-downs highly probable 6/11
The above scenario is devastating on life quality AND economy due to ongoing restrictions and potential and repeated on-off phases
„From an epidemiological point of view, consistent containment of SARS-CoV-2 is currently the only sensible strategy“7/11
„From an epidemiological point of view, consistent containment of SARS-CoV-2 is currently the only sensible strategy“7/11
In this strategy restrictions need to be in place until health authorities signal that they can trace and isolate every single case, leading to a very low rate of new infections. Once that is the case, restrictions can slowly be abandoned leading to "a largely normal life.“8/11
If you want to return to a normal life as quick as possible AND reduce the damage onto the ecconomy in the long run containment strategy is the way to go. 9/11 #BreakTheChain
Ask your Government
a) to implement Containment strategy
b) to transparently explain their epidemiological reasoning
c) to state clear target criteria for alliveating restrictions
d) to upscale tracing capacity of health System
e) to test, test, test 10/11
#BreakTheChain
a) to implement Containment strategy
b) to transparently explain their epidemiological reasoning
c) to state clear target criteria for alliveating restrictions
d) to upscale tracing capacity of health System
e) to test, test, test 10/11
#BreakTheChain
Keep getting informed and inform others. Give Credit to people like @AscotBlack who helped me with this thread.
And don´t forget to retweet this thread so others can benefit, too. This needs to travel to many, many countries. Thank you!
#BreakTheChain
And don´t forget to retweet this thread so others can benefit, too. This needs to travel to many, many countries. Thank you!
#BreakTheChain
