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Giles Wilkes Profile picture
@Gilesyb
May 4, 2020 • 6 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Gemma Tetlow: given that we know the government cares about more than just covid mortality, the five tests are an imperfect guide to how it thinks about exiting lockdown

Join our event!

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/events/lifting…

#ifgevents
There is not enough information available to produce anything like a Grand Plan, including unknowns about people's behaviour, how the economy reacts, do people spend their hoarded savings?
instituteforgovernment.org.uk/events/lifting…
join our live event @ifgevents
Alex Thomas: we don't have a framework against which to make exiting decisions, yet - as they appear to have in the Republic of Ireland
AT: there needs to be a judicious mix of clarity and humility in terms of accepting mistakes and correcting for them. But a blatant U-turn on e.g. opening schools would be very difficult politically

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/events/lifting…
Still not too late to join us as we discuss exiting the lockdown: instituteforgovernment.org.uk/events/lifting… with @gemmatetlow @AlexGAThomas @bronwenmaddox and @cath_haddon
Cath Haddon raises an interesting angle: the legal restrictions. Can you tell one class of people to stay at home and not another?

And there are four different lockdowns, in fact: one for each devolved nation

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More from @Gilesyb

Giles Wilkes Profile picture
Apr 15
Most of us are reasonably convinced that Truss's economic programme (fwiw) was proven to have failed within a month. The market verdict was brutal.

But most policy isn't that clear.

I read a LOT of centre left pamphlet-speak calling for industrial policy ... 1/
which you could machine-write: "the UK needs a green innovative industrial strategy that invests in sectors of the future and cuts pollution while creating green jobs and rebalancing the economy/levelling up. It should borrow to do this/tax the rich".

What I seldom read... 2/
... is anything like a statement of what failure would look like. Give it 50 times longer than Truss - 5 years, say. What would force you to concede "this hasn't worked"? What metrics would count for evidence? Or is that too short?

Or is it heretical to ask? 3/
Read 9 tweets
Giles Wilkes Profile picture
Mar 4
The Government has more Industrial Strategy than you can fit on an A2 sheet, a thread. Please tell me what is missing!

An Advanced Manufacturing Plan 1/assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65788f51…
Which includes the GIGA fund (Green Industries Growth Accelerator)
2/gov.uk/government/new…
... and also a Life Sciences Innovative Manufacturing Fund 3/gov.uk/government/pub…
Read 33 tweets
Giles Wilkes Profile picture
Jan 26
"Budget blowouts and delays: why the UK struggles with infrastructure"

OK, this is a vitally important and *difficult* topic, and it plays directly into a subject I've been trying to force myself to think about: when markets or planning are better 1/on.ft.com/3S5WnbK
This observation crudely suggests to me that the UK has opted for the ever-more-market approach to doing stuff. Issue a tender, that gets sub-contracted and so on in an attempt to stimulate competitive dynamics that somehow produce the best outcome. But it hasn't worked! 2/ Image
In my amateur estimation, we've been trying to exploit the insights of Hayek's Use of Knowledge in Society which emphasises the supreme knowledge difficulty of planning. But he understands that the right answer depends on circumstances! 3/ econlib.org/library/Essays…
Image
Read 6 tweets
Giles Wilkes Profile picture
Jan 19
Remarkably, 15 months ago there was a 49 day government whose actions triggered a bond market panic and the reversal of tens of billions in tax measures.

Even more remarkably, it blamed “Treasury Orthodoxy“ for the country's ills.

So we sat down to investigate 1/16
This is the report @ollybartrum @RhysClyne and I wrote after interviewing dozens of current and former insiders about what this Orthodoxy is, what it is responsible for, how it is implemented in practice, and many sundry issues. 2/

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/…
Tl;dr: is there an orthodoxy? Sure! It's what you would expect! Sound money and spending control matters, when pretty much every other part of govt is pressing the other way. But it is *highly* responsive to political direction. Blaming it for political decisions is silly 3/
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Read 16 tweets
Giles Wilkes Profile picture
Dec 3, 2023
I honestly wonder if the Rwanda policy deserves study as the stupidest ever to be pushed in the UK.

Perfectly calibrated to repel centrists; wind up furious right-wingers; and obviously do next to nothing about the actual issue. Also wasting govt time massively. Incredible.
The Conservatives are literally going to waste years arguing about loyalty to the Rwanda Policy as a mark of purity. Attacking people who call it bullshit. For something is ineffective at its very core.
As I'm sure I heard @maitlis observe on a recent News Agents, it was never conceived as a serious attempt to address dangerous crossings. A cruel jape to wind up the libs, now set to sabotage the Conservatives for years. Slow hand clap...
Read 4 tweets
Giles Wilkes Profile picture
Nov 22, 2023
Hunt is up and speaking. Highlights avoidance of a recession and inflation falling, which he credits to the avoidance of "short term measures" such as not paying wage rises "to the unions", or spending £28bn on green measures.

The attempted dividing lines are clear ... 1/
Onto @OBR_UK forecasts:

Here are some of the key numbers as of March Image
@OBR_UK repeats the ridiculous charge that Reeves did not mention inflation. I believe she raised higher prices and cost of living continuously.

Forecasts inflation to hit the 2.0% target in 2025. So three years of it outside its proper range. But his AS will not hurt the fight ... 3/
Read 34 tweets

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