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Giles Wilkes Profile picture
@Gilesyb
May 4, 2020 • 6 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Gemma Tetlow: given that we know the government cares about more than just covid mortality, the five tests are an imperfect guide to how it thinks about exiting lockdown

Join our event!

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/events/lifting…

#ifgevents
There is not enough information available to produce anything like a Grand Plan, including unknowns about people's behaviour, how the economy reacts, do people spend their hoarded savings?
instituteforgovernment.org.uk/events/lifting…
join our live event @ifgevents
Alex Thomas: we don't have a framework against which to make exiting decisions, yet - as they appear to have in the Republic of Ireland
AT: there needs to be a judicious mix of clarity and humility in terms of accepting mistakes and correcting for them. But a blatant U-turn on e.g. opening schools would be very difficult politically

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/events/lifting…
Still not too late to join us as we discuss exiting the lockdown: instituteforgovernment.org.uk/events/lifting… with @gemmatetlow @AlexGAThomas @bronwenmaddox and @cath_haddon
Cath Haddon raises an interesting angle: the legal restrictions. Can you tell one class of people to stay at home and not another?

And there are four different lockdowns, in fact: one for each devolved nation

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More from @Gilesyb

Giles Wilkes Profile picture
Jul 30
Reflection on yesterday's big moment from Reeves: this far, there's a pattern of the new government doing what was widely predicted, but still somehow managing to surprise on the upside in their delivery.

We all expected a "shocked face what a mess" moment...1/
It was visible from a distance that the Tories had set aside far too little spending to keep the public realm in a decent state, let alone deliver goodies like extra hospitals.

But the details, the vitriol and clear accusation of dishonesty were 🔥 2/

wp.me/pDsIG-15c
If the anger wasn't real, she's one helluva actor. The OBR's promised investigation into the circumstances of the last Budget means another big hit from this dishonesty accusation. It might build all summer, that narrative. They want it to land like 1992, like Truss...3/
Read 10 tweets
Giles Wilkes Profile picture
Jun 19
When I saw that @IPPR (@GeorgeDibb and @carsjung specifically) had written a report eviscerating the UK's investment record, my first reaction was a shrug and "huh, yeah we know that". But it is well worth your time: 1/ ippr-org.files.svdcdn.com/production/Dow…
To start cheekily: it praises the Sunak/criticizes Labour's plans!

"The government’s plans for ‘full expensing’ capital allowances are a step in the right direction"

"a Starmer-led government would cut public investment more than the 2010-24 Conservative administration"
2/
Two: it is salutory to be reminded of how deep-seated is the UK's failure to invest.

If you are looking for culprits behind our growth failures, *you need to find big things*. This is a big one - £1.9tn cummulatively. Had that been invested, GDP would be much higher ... 3/ Image
Read 7 tweets
Giles Wilkes Profile picture
Jun 3
Since there is nothing else going on, here is a good @IPPR report by @GeorgeDibb et al on Manufacturing and the Green transition

Some thoughts: 1/ippr-org.files.svdcdn.com/production/Dow…
They share the Johnsonian Cakeist position that Green Growth is a three-fer - you win at growth, regional balance and environmental policy by going for it.

This would be nice. But: 2/ Image
Others in the think tank ecosystem like @resfoundation with their Ending Stagnation work are more cautious: 3/ economy2030.resolutionfoundation.org/reports/ending…
Image
Read 14 tweets
Giles Wilkes Profile picture
Apr 15
Most of us are reasonably convinced that Truss's economic programme (fwiw) was proven to have failed within a month. The market verdict was brutal.

But most policy isn't that clear.

I read a LOT of centre left pamphlet-speak calling for industrial policy ... 1/
which you could machine-write: "the UK needs a green innovative industrial strategy that invests in sectors of the future and cuts pollution while creating green jobs and rebalancing the economy/levelling up. It should borrow to do this/tax the rich".

What I seldom read... 2/
... is anything like a statement of what failure would look like. Give it 50 times longer than Truss - 5 years, say. What would force you to concede "this hasn't worked"? What metrics would count for evidence? Or is that too short?

Or is it heretical to ask? 3/
Read 9 tweets
Giles Wilkes Profile picture
Mar 4
The Government has more Industrial Strategy than you can fit on an A2 sheet, a thread. Please tell me what is missing!

An Advanced Manufacturing Plan 1/assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65788f51…
Which includes the GIGA fund (Green Industries Growth Accelerator)
2/gov.uk/government/new…
... and also a Life Sciences Innovative Manufacturing Fund 3/gov.uk/government/pub…
Read 33 tweets
Giles Wilkes Profile picture
Jan 26
"Budget blowouts and delays: why the UK struggles with infrastructure"

OK, this is a vitally important and *difficult* topic, and it plays directly into a subject I've been trying to force myself to think about: when markets or planning are better 1/on.ft.com/3S5WnbK
This observation crudely suggests to me that the UK has opted for the ever-more-market approach to doing stuff. Issue a tender, that gets sub-contracted and so on in an attempt to stimulate competitive dynamics that somehow produce the best outcome. But it hasn't worked! 2/ Image
In my amateur estimation, we've been trying to exploit the insights of Hayek's Use of Knowledge in Society which emphasises the supreme knowledge difficulty of planning. But he understands that the right answer depends on circumstances! 3/ econlib.org/library/Essays…
Image
Read 6 tweets

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