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I want to share a bit of polling data with y'all. Over the weekend, I cooked up an average of the last 2 months of polls in every state. Then I trained a model to project polling averages in states that don't yet have any actual polls. The results are here. Preeeeetty blue...
I also programmed a little toy election simulator based just on these projections. It generates national, regional and state-level polling errors given the empirical distribution of error in polls fielded this far before an election. Pretty blue...
Tipping-point probabilities....
Puts the electoral college - popular vote divide at 2.5 percentage points.

A 11% chance of the EC winning lowing the popular vote
There's also this interesting thing going on where the national polls are Biden +6 but the weighted average of the state polls suggest Biden is up 7 nationally. Could be because of a lag in the former or poor weighting in the latter (or both!), plus other stuff.
Note the symmetry with our MRP projections economist.com/united-states/…
The code for this is up on GItHub. Download and give it a whirl github.com/elliottmorris/…
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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
#NEW from me: The Economist is now publishing state-level estimates of 2020 vote intention based on my analysis of our our polling data from YouGov. Let me explain how this model works & what it tell us about what might go down in November. THREAD economist.com/united-states/…
The problem: National polls can mislead us about what might happen in POTUS elections. That's b/c there can be large gaps between how left- or right- leaning competitive states are compared to the country as a whole—& the electoral college elects the POTUS, not the popular vote.
State-level polls are also few and far between these days, and many still haven't fixed the problems that caused SOME of them to misfire in 2016 (no education weights being the biggest issues). We think that a lack of weights for political lean could be a similar issue this year.
Read 20 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
THREAD Covid-19 is spreading from America's cities to its exurbs & rural heartland. Which areas are likely to face the worst of it?

We modeled the disease's fatality rate & find the South & Appalachia are particularly vulnerable. Policymakers, take note. economist.com/graphic-detail…
Who we think is vulnerable to covid-19 is based on many factors, including their age, underlying health conditions, access to health care and recent exposure to potentially infected people. We acquired data on these indicators as well as case and death counts for every US county.
We're primarily interested in who is susceptible to dying from the virus, rather than just contracting it. This is called the fatality rate, & although we only have data on detected (vs all real) cases, we think the CFR is a good approximation for actual infection fatality rate.
Read 12 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
The American far-left refusing to enter partnerships and engage in strategic bartering with their analogous in the dominant two-party system will doom any chance they have to wield actual influence influence over politics and policymaking at a national scale.
And again, I think it’s a deeply unserious attitude that not participating in the political system at all is better than supporting a deeply flawed but proximate candidate in a two-person race. Why sacrifice all your agency when there is still a preferable outcome on the table?
I will say that Sanders and his closest allies seem to understand these tradeoffs. Of course, Sanders has been fighting this battle for 40 years in Congress, so we should expect him to know better than DSA types how to actually achieve political goals.
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