@Tesla's Investor Battery Day is rumored to announce a "Terafactory" for terawatt-hours of battery production. A Terafactory theoretically would produce over a terawatt-hour of battery capacity (1,000 GWh). This isn't possible. Let's put 1,000 GWh into perspective...
1,000 GWh is ~20x the current capacity of Panasonic’s production at Gigafactory Nevada, and ~15x times current global EV battery production. A terafactory won't be possible for many years. For one, the supply chain isn't there, especially in North America.
The world would still need 5 terafactories and ~12 years to electrify 99% of cars on the road if 5 terafactories miraculously appeared overnight. This doesn't even account for stationary power battery production.
At Battery Day, Tesla may announce it will start producing its own cells, but likely won't be able to produce 1 GWh until 2022. Supply chains are tricky in the battery world, especially if Tesla stays with a cobalt cathode, and even more difficult in North America.
It won't be until at least 2H 2023 for Tesla to get prices of its own cells sub-$100/kWh. Tesla should focus on making EV/PV/ESS and let the Asian battery makers do what they do best. Things could get messy and capital intensive if it tries diving into battery cells headfirst.
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ARK locks its Tesla models, but we unlocked them. I'm going to dig into @ARKInvest’s new Tesla model this weekend, but before that, let's look at what ARK thought about 2023.
[Unanswered issues with past two years’ models quote-tweeted here] @wintonARK
Remember, just last year, ARK’s bull case figured Tesla would sell 3 million cars in 2023—its bear case 2.4 million. It also thought Tesla would do $174B in automotive revenue this year (2022 model bull case), or $141B on the low-end (2022 bear case). In Q1 2023, it did $19.4B.
In 2020, @ARKInvest thought Tesla would do $315 billion in revenue in 2023. Tesla did less than 10% of that in the first quarter so far.
So Bloomberg came out with a story this morning about how Jack Ma is staying away from China.
A few hours later, Jack Ma was literally visiting a school in Hangzhou, and Bloomberg had to "update" its entire article.
You can't make this stuff up.😂
The authors of the story are no longer listed (LMAO), but you can still find them in the metadata.
A video surfaced yesterday of what looked to be Jack Ma in a vehicle in China. "China watchers" were dismissing it, saying the video wasn't taken recently. People were even trying to decode an inspection sticker to prove Ma couldn't possibly be in China.
J.P. Morgan's 2022 Global Autos Survey just came out. This is a good indicator of demand going into 2023.
JPM says, "As compared to our survey results from 2021, we see evidence across countries such that consumers are less likely to buy a new car in 2023."
Top brand preference for budget friendly EVs is typically Toyota and Volkswagen, and BYD in China.
For premium EVs, Tesla is still a favorite in most countries, followed by Audi.