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Taylor Ogan Profile picture
Taylor Ogan
@TaylorOgan
CEO at @snowbullcapital // In China for investment opportunities // Boston to Shenzhen // Grammar nut // Disclaimer: https://t.co/CYiDT5xlML
Apr 28, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
ARK locks its Tesla models, but we unlocked them. I'm going to dig into @ARKInvest’s new Tesla model this weekend, but before that, let's look at what ARK thought about 2023.

[Unanswered issues with past two years’ models quote-tweeted here] @wintonARK Remember, just last year, ARK’s bull case figured Tesla would sell 3 million cars in 2023—its bear case 2.4 million. It also thought Tesla would do $174B in automotive revenue this year (2022 model bull case), or $141B on the low-end (2022 bear case). In Q1 2023, it did $19.4B.
Mar 27, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
So Bloomberg came out with a story this morning about how Jack Ma is staying away from China.

A few hours later, Jack Ma was literally visiting a school in Hangzhou, and Bloomberg had to "update" its entire article.

You can't make this stuff up.😂 The authors of the story are no longer listed (LMAO), but you can still find them in the metadata.
Dec 13, 2022 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
What's the state of Tesla's "Full Self-Driving" initiative? Is it improving? How does it compare to other companies' systems?

Data-driven thread below: In March, I tweeted this thread putting Tesla's FSD beta disengagement rates into perspective. You could barely see Tesla on the charts.

Okay, so Tesla was nowhere close to the big boys nine months ago, but has it improved since?
Dec 13, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
So re: the whole Tesla robotaxi thing: how does Tesla plan to address the inherent blind spots its cars have? Image I know I've mentioned this a lot in the past, but I think more people need to be having this conversation.
Dec 9, 2022 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
J.P. Morgan's 2022 Global Autos Survey just came out. This is a good indicator of demand going into 2023.

JPM says, "As compared to our survey results from 2021, we see evidence across countries such that consumers are less likely to buy a new car in 2023." Image Top brand preference for budget friendly EVs is typically Toyota and Volkswagen, and BYD in China. Image
Dec 8, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Jack nailed this, over a year ago. And this
Aug 9, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
It’s 2022, and Teslas still aren’t stopping for children. The black car on the right that does stop for the dummy child is equipped with LiDAR from @luminartech—a technology Tesla still refuses to use in its production vehicles—though Tesla does use LiDAR to test how far off the distances its cameras estimate are from actual.
Jun 27, 2022 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
There has been a very recent explosion in ADAS/ADS tech in consumer vehicles, especially in China. There's tight competition as companies work to find the right combination of hardware sensor modalities and compute power. Image 2/ Among the most HW-equipped is the $50,000 Hozon Neta S, with *six* Huawei LiDARs, five mmW radars, 13 high-res cameras, 12 ultrasonics, and 1,000 TOPS.

Elon Musk famously called LiDAR "ugly", among other things. Can you spot the LiDARs?

440mi range on this beast. Image
Jun 6, 2022 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Tesla's job postings decreased -24.4% this week, following Elon Musk's internal email that, "Tesla will be reducing salaried headcount by 10%." @snowbullcapital's Jobs Tracker noticed the decrease 23 hours before Musk sent the email. Details below. Image 2/ For more info on our proprietary Jobs Tracker, which we made public last June, click through the linked tweet.

We use this tracker to understand companies' areas of focus, pain points, turnover, growth, scale, and much more. It's really useful to us.
Apr 21, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
JPM call with CPCA: "When asked whether the industry can make up April production lost in late 2Q or 2H22, CPCA indicated it will depend on underlying demand." CC: @DKurac CPCA: "A more noticeable recovery should take place after April 25th as key logistic bottlenecks such as worker mobility and transportation are addressed." CC: @TroyTeslike
Apr 21, 2022 • 15 tweets • 5 min read
It's that time of year again, and we once again opened ARK's Tesla Model. No one from ARK responded to our questions about last year's model in the thread quote-tweeted, and there are even more mistakes/ridiculous assumptions this year. 2/ Last year, ARK had 17,640 human-driven Teslas coming onto a non-existent Tesla ride-hail network in 2021.

In this year's model, ARK has 29,293 Teslas coming on in 2022, bear case. Again, this network doesn't exist, nor has Tesla hinted it ever will.
Apr 4, 2022 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
BYD raised its guidance from 1.2M-1.3M passenger NEV deliveries in FY22 to 1.5M, conservatively, and up to 2.0M with no supply chain issues. Here are our thoughts, and how this stacks up. Image 2/ First of all, remember how easy it has been for BYD to scale its NEV production over the last two years. It helps that BYD is the only EV OEM that makes its own chips and batteries in house.

BYD has shown scaling is of no concern.
Mar 8, 2022 • 15 tweets • 7 min read
Tesla Full Self-Driving perspective thread:

One of the difficulties in determining where Tesla falls in the autonomous vehicle space is that Tesla provides essentially no data to the public, especially its FSD Beta program.

Using the limited data we do have, let's compare. Image 2/ I've put into perspective where Tesla sits relative to the others attempting Level 4-5 in the past:
Here:

And here:

But now there is a dataset the Tesla crowd is beginning to (contribute to and) cite.
Feb 1, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Here's a typical drive on Tesla FSD Beta, and why it's the opposite of useful. It's most certainly not even close to being "safer than a human", by any factor.

22-minute drive, 4.5 miles, and WAY too many interventions. Here's the route we drove. Nothing crazy. We didn't even film all of the interventions. I have drives like this every time I use it, regardless of what x.x version it's on. THIS is what Elon is saying will be Level 4 this year. THIS was supposed to be robotaxi in 2020.
Jan 28, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
As more and more companies are deploying actual robotaxis with no driver to cities, the Tesla FSD project looks increasingly further behind, both iteratively and functionally.

Elon is looking more desperate wrt FSD as the competition reveals genuine autonomous vehicles. If you are still failing to see this, godspeed. Over the past year, Tesla/TSLA owners have privately reached out to me, admitting they were too blinded by the obsession with “FSD sucks now, but version x.x will blow your mind.” Tesla is nowhere close to robotaxis.
Dec 14, 2021 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
Piggybacking on @bridgemccarthy_'s thread on BYD's role in Toyota's announcements today:

1. We think last week's media reports on Toyota partnering with BYD to produce a $30k affordable EV next year missed the point. This isn't new news.

2/ So Toyota unveiled 15 BEV models today (finally) that it plans to sell before 2030. Toyota wasted too much time and money on FCEV technology over the years, so the world's largest automaker has been scrambling to get on board with BEVs in the last 2.5 years.
Nov 23, 2021 • 25 tweets • 5 min read
Every day, more & more Tesla fans realize what I’ve been saying for years: Teslas lack the hardware to be robotaxis. There’s a reason no one in the (actual) autonomous driving industry thought TSLA would pull off what was promised at Autonomy Day. Here’s why we need more of this 2/ There seems to be a misconception among the most extreme $TSLA bulls that those of us who are critical of aspects of Tesla are unable to see everything Tesla has accomplished and how disruptive Tesla will be. And I actually understand why. Let me explain.
Nov 9, 2021 • 23 tweets • 8 min read
Far too many people think Tesla is much closer to being able to take the human out of the driver's seat than it really is. Here's why it is nowhere close. 2/ Let's go way back to Waymo's 2016 Autonomous Vehicle Disengagement Report. By the end of the 2016 reporting period, Google/Waymo had operated in autonomous mode for 2.3 million miles, 636k of which occurred on public roads. (Mostly in Mountain View & neighboring communities)
Sep 15, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Damn!
Sep 14, 2021 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
.@WR4NYGov, you don't seriously think I, and others who are calling on Tesla to be more careful on how it tests on public roads (@missy_cummings, @JasonTorchinsky, @GordonJohnson19), are KILLING "a million people a year"? That's disgusting. 2/ AVs will make our roads safer as long as they are saving more lives than they take. There's a difference between driver assist and fully driverless vehicles. Tesla is claiming to be close to having driverLESS cars, but are they safer?
Sep 14, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
It’s time to start talking about Tesla’s blind spots.

A few of us have been trying to sound the alarms for a while now, but it has largely fallen on deaf ears.