THREAD: A new model today shows covid cases rising through May. While the model's assumptions are unclear, and therefore its estimates uncertain, we should expect cases to rise as we re-open aspects of economy. A lingering threat from covid is our new normal. How can we prepare?
Mitigation worked very effectively at its primary objective, which was to reduce number of cases (and hospitalization) below the point where the healthcare system would be exhausted. It saved lives. But it was a bridge, not a solution. Taken alone, it can't snuff out all spread.
We still have spread at a high level: 30K cases a day and 2,000 deaths. We've reached a national plateau for 30+ days. But in more than 20 states outside New York region, cases and hospitalizations are still rising. We need to prepare to deal with covid as a persistent threat.
First, that means protecting those most vulnerable to infection and bad outcomes, especially disadvantaged communities and those who work and live-in at-risk environments. We must implement targeted public health interventions to protect those at greatest risk of transmission.
We need to re-open responsibly with thoughtful plans to focus on activities and businesses that help restore the greatest sense of normalcy and economic wellbeing. It means a staged approach to allows targeted interventions to reduce risks, measure the impact of re-open efforts.
We're opening against a backdrop of a lot of spread. Unless there's a strong seasonal effect and summer slows transmission more than expected, we should expect cases to grow. We need to be prepared with case-based interventions, and widespread screening, to slow the transmission.
Individually, and as a society, we’re beginning the critical process of defining a new normal, where we’ll want to do some of the things we used to, but we’ll have to do them differently, with added safety, vigilance. Until we get to a vaccine, covid will remain constant risk.
