"People whose professional role is making wrong fiscal and economic forecasts have moonlighted as makers of wrong epidemiological forecasts.” nymag.com/intelligencer/…
The more we learn about Kevin Hassett’s Covid-19 model, the worse it sounds. It “projects" that U.S. deaths are going to fall to zero in … TWO WEEKS.
I didn’t think he could possibly make a worse prediction than Dow 36,000, but I underestimated him. washingtonpost.com/health/governm…
I didn’t think he could possibly make a worse prediction than Dow 36,000, but I underestimated him. washingtonpost.com/health/governm…
The amazing thing about Kevin Hassett is that he’s arguably not even the worst person at making predictions in the Trump administration—and that’s despite a record of never being right about anything.
His record really is incredible. Some highlights:
His record really is incredible. Some highlights:
In 1999, when the Dow was 11,000, Hassett co-authored the book Dow 36,000, which argued that, yes, the Dow was quickly going to reach 36,000 because investors would supposedly realize that they'd always been undervaluing stocks. Almost 21 years later, the Dow is just under 24,000
In July 2004, when U.S. home prices had gone up 50% in 4.5 years, Hassett didn't think there was a housing bubble because conservatives tended to believe markets didn't fall prey to them very often.
The tech bubble had burst 3 years before. The housing bubble did 3 years later.
The tech bubble had burst 3 years before. The housing bubble did 3 years later.
In 2009, when interest rates were zero and we were facing the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, Hassett argued against fiscal stimulus.
In 2001, when we faced a much milder crash, he argued for fiscal stimulus.
newrepublic.com/article/91384/…
In 2001, when we faced a much milder crash, he argued for fiscal stimulus.
newrepublic.com/article/91384/…
In November 2010, when core inflation was below 1% and unemployment was almost 10%, Hassett signed a letter arguing that the Fed's stimulus efforts were risking "currency debasement and inflation".
The dollar is up 36% since then and core inflation has averaged 1.6%.
The dollar is up 36% since then and core inflation has averaged 1.6%.
As Trump's top economic adviser, Hassett argued that the Trump tax cuts would eventually increase median wages by as much as *$20,000* and might end up paying for themselves.
Neither of these is anywhere close to being true.
Neither of these is anywhere close to being true.
Hassett also has a bad habit of bad data manipulation. This attempt to draw a Laffer curve for corporate tax rates when the real line of best fit should just be a straight line is an incredible combination of amateurish and insulting. bradford-delong.com/2017/07/paul-g…
Despite (or because of) this record of near constant failure, Hassett is now advising Trump on Covid-19.
All we know is that Hassett has put together a “cubic” model that says we won’t have any more Covid-19 deaths in two weeks. This *sounds* like high school level Excel work.
All we know is that Hassett has put together a “cubic” model that says we won’t have any more Covid-19 deaths in two weeks. This *sounds* like high school level Excel work.
To recap: an economist I can’t ever remember being right about anything has put together his own Covid-19 model, which sounds like something a naive 11th-grader would come up with, and says the pandemic will just go away in 2 weeks.
This is who is advising Trump to reopen.
This is who is advising Trump to reopen.
My god, Kevin Hassett really is just using a Excel trendline to “project” that Covid-19 deaths will almost go down to zero in two weeks.
A complete and utter joke—and the punchline is that thousands and thousands more people will die if Trump listens to him.
A complete and utter joke—and the punchline is that thousands and thousands more people will die if Trump listens to him.
The scariest thing about Kevin Hassett isn’t that he’s this incompetent. It’s that the rest of the Trump administration is too incompetent to realize it.
The best people.
The best people.
