Thread by @rbkeeney

Swift was looking like the consensus 2020 1.01 in rookie drafts heading into the 2019 college season.

Now? He's slipped to 1.03 in DLF's rookie ADP and is down to 40 in FFPC start-up ADP.

Let's take a closer look.

1/

Taking a quick look at our model - Swift isn't projected to be a breakout. Surprising, considering his pedigree.

Final rating? 44.

2/

Going to the Lions isn't going to boost anyone's outlook, and there's a real concern that he split time with Kerryon Johnson (rating of 47) in 2020.

But Georgia has a track-record of using backs less than you'd expect and then seeing them drafted highly.

3/

Let's take a look at 3 other UG backs: Todd Gurley (79), Nick Chubb (59), and Sony Michel (60).

Sony was 23 at the time of the draft, and the model though he was the 5th worst 1st round RB prospect since 2003.😬

4/

Out of the 4 UG backs, Swift saw significantly fewer touches.

Swift: 499 touches / 41 games (12.1 per game avg)
Gurley 575 / 30 (19.1)
Chubb 789 / 47 (16.7)
Sony 654/47 (13.9)

Doesn't inspire a ton of confidence, does it?

5/

Swift did see some more reception work, but his BEST season still saw him limited to 8.9% (~70th percentile) of his teams receiving yards. Gurley saw close to 11%, Chubb 8%, and Sony 11%.

I really would have liked him to be more involved in the passing game.

6/

Honestly, it's a bit baffling me that Swift conceded so many touches in 2018 and 2019 to Brian Herrien (undrafted, 209 lbs, 4.62 forty) and Elijah Holyfield (undrafted, 217 lbs, 4.78 forty).

Athletically, Swift is in a different tier.

7/

Pure production metrics like dominator, MS stats, and yards per team pass attempt are going to be hurt a player who doesn't dominate touches.

So, what is Swift's calling card?

Efficiency.

8/

Swift is in the 90th percentile in yards per touch (7.03 YPT), better than the other UG backs.

Gurley: 6.78
Chubb: 6.50
Sony: 6.47

However, Swift's YPC was 6.2 (77th percentile), the worst of the 4. Even worse than Holyfield's 6.4 YPC.

9/

Quick reminder: YPT isn't strongly correlated to fantasy success so we need to look at thresholds, and Swift is an outlier.

More about outliers/thresholds? ⤵️ breakoutfinder.com/keeneys-runnin…

10/

If Swift had gone in the 1st round, he would have secured a rating of 62. His final rating of 44 represents a *significant* drop.

In an alternate universe, with a normal draft class... Swift goes in the 1st round, one reason I like Swift more than the model suggests.

11/

Swift was an efficient back, but the rest of his profile isn't noteworthy.

My key concern this: If Georgia wanted to "preserve" him for the NFL and he's as good as a receiver as we think... why didn't they use him more in that role?

12/

Looking back at his college career, I feel like we were all waiting for Swift to *finally* put it together for 1 season of brilliance, and he never did.

Now that he's in Detroit... we might need to wait a while longer.

13/

And finally, because the people demand rankings: I've got him as my #5 running back in the class, behind Jonathan Taylor, JK Dobbins, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Cam Akers.

14/fin