Thread by @slarjy

Over the last few weeks, I've been inundated with bad COVID-19 takes. I've had enough and I'm pushing back.
A thread.

First of all, there are no experts. Everyone is totally winging it all the time.
theguardian.com/news/oliver-bu…
This particular situation is too new and too hard. No one knows what's going on or what to do. Those people behind the ridiculously bad IHME model? Not experts. No one is.

That said, a lot of people are getting this completely wrong. Let's start with the deniers.
Excess mortality shows how many more people are dying than the baseline over a time period. In some places people are dying at many times the normal rate. 😱

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1256312094334619648

This study is one of several that shows an Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of at least 0.5%. That's the floor (low bound), not an estimate. For the flu the IFR is about 0.1%. COVID-19 is not the flu.
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

I concur with estimates that IFR is currently over 1% but
a) it is subject to interpretation since vulnerable people are also more likely to get it
b) it should creep back down as we get better at treating it.
Either way, COVID-19 is very dangerous.
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1252993…

Now for some of the BUT-monsters...
"But the CDC just revised its death count to 37k." No. This take is scary-wrong. That 37k figure is based on data that is over two weeks old. Americans are dying at about 2,000 per day. Do the math.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1256710538685448198

"But Sweden". Sweden's risky strategy is leading to a much higher death rate than slightly-smaller Virginia. Is that what we want? Oh and Sweden's economy isn't doing so great either. It turns out everyone's economy is vulnerable to a pandemic.
konj.se/publikationer/…

I would be remiss if I didn't mention the media for a bit. The media is paying far too much attention to people who are behaving badly. That actually does harm.
timharford.com/2020/04/were-a…
Most people are trying to do the right thing.

Next up, the fear-stricken. Remember that the point of physical distancing (social distancing is such a dumb term) was to flatten the curve so that the health care system doesn't collapse. Good news: we were successful in most of the country.

Reality check. The IHME model is based on the fantasy that once it starts going away, infections drop briskly to almost zero. In reality, they drop slowly in Western nations. Don't ask me why, I'm not an expert. For many reasons, we can't eliminate it.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1256711433829703683

This site shows retransmission rates over time. Anything under 1 is good because it means that infections are starting to go away.
rt.live
The good news: we're headed in the right direction for most of the country (but not towards swift and total success).

Now what? There are no easy answers but Pearlstein goes into some common sense concepts for how to reopen including understanding inevitable tradeoffs, focusing on good (not perfect), and playing the probabilities. 👍
washingtonpost.com/business/2020/…

I hope for the swift reopening of medical facilities, outdoor spaces, and child care/socialization. As far as I can tell, these have the best cost-benefit to society.
Shared adult indoor experiences appear to be the biggest risks and unfortunately these need to wait indefinitely.

Now some good news. Look at this map and select the second layer showing cases per capita. Dark green (mostly urban areas) is bad, but there are large swaths of the country that are largely unaffected and are good candidates to reopen incrementally now.
csbs.org/information-co…

Unfortunately, due to our federalist structure, states call the shots and most are not inclined to play favorites. VA is weighed down by places like Alexandria that haven't clearly peaked yet so the whole state is in a 2 week holding pattern. 🤬

https://twitter.com/AlexandriaNow/status/1257319106820239360

Ultimately this isn't about me. I can do safer-at-home indefinitely, though working in isolation does affect my productivity. I do worry about my child. After those directly affected (victims, family members, and providers), this has the greatest negative impact on children. #end

@threadreaderapp unroll please