Thread by @theSNP

First Minister @NicolaSturgeon: "I want to start with the usual statistical update in relation to Covid-19.

As at 9 o’clock this morning, there have been 12,437 positive cases confirmed - an increase of 171 since yesterday."

NS: "A total of 1,656 patients are in hospital with Covid-19 - that is a decrease of 64 since yesterday.

A total of 104 people last night were in intensive care with confirmed or suspected Covid-19. That is an increase of 5 since yesterday."

NS: "I can also confirm that since 5 March, 2,847 patients who had tested positive for the virus have been able to leave hospital."

NS: "Sadly, though, in the last 24 hours, 44 deaths have been registered of patients who had been confirmed through a test as having Covid-19 – which takes the total number of deaths, under that measurement, to 1,620."

NS: "We must never think of these numbers as just statistics. They represent individuals whose loss is a source of sorrow to many. I want to send my deepest condolences to everyone who has lost a loved one to this virus."

NS: "I also want to thank once again our health and care workers for the extraordinary work that you continue to do for us in the most challenging and difficult of circumstances."

NS: "I have one issue that I want to discuss today.

It follows my update yesterday on our plans for “test, trace, isolate”."

NS: "Today, I want to set out our latest data on the level of infection and the important R number, and also describe the work we are doing now to prepare for careful and gradual changes to the lockdown restrictions..."

NS: ".. but only when we judge it is safe to make them, which I am afraid is not right now."

NS: "You will find more detail in a new document we have just published on the gov.scot website - it updates the one we published a couple of weeks ago and, again, I’m asking you to please have a look at it."

NS: "I also want to encourage you to use the online tool that we are launching today, which gives you the chance to offer ideas on how we should move forward."

NS: "The decisions on how we come out of lockdown will affect all of us - and so I am determined that I and the Scottish Government make them as openly and collaboratively as possible."

NS: "By Thursday, we have to formally assess whether any lockdown restrictions should be lifted. The other UK governments will also be making an assessment on or around that date."

NS: "As we move forward, we will continue to discuss and where appropriate reach decisions on a four nations basis - it remains my intention to have UK-wide alignment where the evidence supports it..."

NS: "..though obviously my overarching responsibility is to reach evidence based decisions that are right for Scotland."

NS: "As I indicated yesterday, I think it is highly unlikely that we will be able to make any significant changes to the current restrictions on Thursday. It’s important that I’m frank with you about that now.

Today’s paper sets out the data that underpins that conclusion."

NS: "In short, we are seeing progress - particularly in the number of people admitted to intensive care - but it is still fragile.

That means any increase in the physical interactions we have with other people could quickly see transmission of the virus increase again."

NS: "We estimate that there are currently around 26,000 people with Covid-19 in Scotland. This is still too high to consider the virus under control.

I have also spoken before about the vital importance of keeping the R number below 1."

NS: "We know it is higher in care homes, but our best estimate is that the R number in the community is currently between 0.7 and 1. And we cannot be sure that it’s not closer to 1 than 0.7."

NS: "There is also some evidence that the R number in Scotland may be slightly higher at this point than in the rest of the UK - though the modelling that is based on is subject to a degree of uncertainty."

NS: "But in any event, the R number is not yet far enough below 1 to be confident that any changes to current restrictions wouldn’t quickly send it above 1 again - if that happened, the virus would start to increase exponentially again."

NS: "That could overwhelm our health service, force us to reimpose restrictions, and lead to many more deaths."

NS: "As an illustration of this, we include a chart in the paper based on recent Danish data."

NS: "It suggests that if we were to fully re-open nurseries and primary schools now, the most likely scenario would be a resurgence in the virus that would overwhelm our hospital capacity in a matter of weeks."

NS: "The fact is any easing of restrictions, whenever we introduce them, will have an impact on the R number. But if we get our baseline lower than it is now, we will have more headroom to cope with that - and be able to avoid outcomes like that one."

NS: "So we must see further reductions in new cases, hospital and ICU admissions and deaths to be sure that the overall level of infection and the R number are lower than they are now."

NS: "That means, for the moment, we do need to stick with the lockdown.

However I am acutely aware that the severity of restrictions we are living under cannot continue indefinitely - we know that lockdown is doing its own damage."

NS: "So we need to prepare to make changes as soon as it is safe to do so.

The next three week period of lockdown, after 7 May, is due to end on 28 May. "

NS: "That doesn’t necessarily mean we can’t make any changes before then if the evidence suggests it is safe to do so. If we can, we will."

NS: "For example, I’m particularly keen as soon as possible, for the sake of mental health and wellbeing, to allow people to be outdoors more. And obviously we are all keen to get the economy moving again as soon as we can."

NS: "So today’s paper sets out some options that we are working on - both in terms of assessing their impact and on the practicalities of implementation - so that we will be ready to make changes when the evidence tell us it is safe."

NS: "To be clear, this is not a list of things we will definitely do by certain dates.

Indeed, we may not be able to take all of these steps even at the end of May."

NS: "This is going to be a long process with different phases along the way.

And we will only implement these changes when we are as certain as possible that it is safe to do so - and when we can also assure you of that."

NS: "In the meantime, it is vital that we stick rigorously to the current rules.

But it is important that we are preparing now."

NS: "So let me briefly set out the options we are working on. Though, again, I must stress that none of these are changes we are implementing as of now."

NS: "But we are considering, firstly, if and how we could safely change our advice on spending time outdoors - to allow exercise outside to happen more than once a day, so long as we continue to stay apart from people outside our own households."

NS: "Second, we are also considering if a slight relaxation in the rules to allow meeting up with a small, defined group of people from other households - in a sort of bubble - might be possible, even if initially that was only possible out of doors."

NS: "This is one possible way in which we could start to interact a bit more with family or friends - which I know is important."

NS: "However, we have to consider carefully the impact on the spread of the virus. And we have to think through how such an approach could be implemented in practice - and also how the limitations of it could be enforced if necessary."

NS: "It’s also not something that will be possible for those who are currently shielding - so we have to think about the fairness of it too."

NS: "The third area we are looking at is when and in what order we can resume some NHS and community care services."

NS: "As you know, we stopped some services – for example, screening programmes and non urgent elective procedures – to ensure that the NHS could cope with Covid-19."

NS: "But these postponements also have implications for health, so we must considering how services can be restarted as soon as possible."

NS: "The fourth area relates to how we carefully, gradually and safely allow businesses to re-open. This is a major area of work, for obvious reasons."

NS: "We need to work with business and trade unions to consider the practical arrangements for different work environments to start up safely - changes to working practices, physical layouts of workplaces, the use of PPE and the operation of public transport."

NS: "On this, we are looking carefully at the work the UK government is doing and consulting our own stakeholders on it."

NS: "Initially, we are giving particular consideration to businesses in the construction, retail and manufacturing sectors – and also to some outdoor and rural businesses."

NS: "However, where home working is possible, we are likely to insist on that for the foreseeable future.

And I want to be clear that as of now current guidance to business remains in place."

NS: "Finally, I have said before that one of the hardest decisions I have ever taken was the closure of schools. I know the impact this is having on young people and families."

NS: "The Deputy First Minister chairs the Education Recovery Group, which is considering options for how pupils might gradually return to school.

Now, again, I need to be clear - a return to school may not be possible at all this side of the summer holidays."

NS: "But we are considering whether some groups of students – such as vulnerable children, children who are making the transition from primary to secondary school, or who are studying for national qualifications – could return to school ahead of others."

NS: "Any initial return to school - when it does happen - is likely to require a mixture of time in school and learning at home."

NS: "For example it’s possible that different groups could attend school part-time in blocks of a few days - or a week at a time - to enable physical distancing and deep cleaning of schools between sessions."

NS: "In all of this, we must try to find the right balance between children’s educational and wider needs, and public health imperatives."

NS: "But I want to be crystal clear that while we will take the greatest care in all of this, that is particularly the case with schools. We will not compromise the safety of your children."

NS: "As you will understand from the detail I have just given, none of these decisions are easy. There are no absolute certainties and complex judgments will have to be made."

NS: "As I’ve said before, lifting the lockdown will not be like flicking a switch.

It will be a gradual process which will happen in phases."

NS: "What we are seeking to do is find a path to a new normal – one which is less restrictive than the current lockdown, but which doesn’t risk the virus running rampant again."

NS: "We have not yet put definite dates on any of what I’ve just set out. But I will update you on an ongoing basis as our evidence, assessments and planning develops."

NS: "And as soon as we can start to attach even tentative dates, we will.

In parallel, we will continue to build the ‘test, trace, isolate’ capacity that I spoke about yesterday."

NS: "But the most important task for all of us in the here and now is to get the virus under more control than it is now. We are at a critical stage in that."

NS: "That means sticking rigorously to the current rules. It means thinking hard about our own compliance - and tightening that now, not easing up on it. If you have been going out a bit more than you should, please rectify that."

NS: "Please stay at home except for essential purposes - and remember, at this stage, essential purposes means only food supplies, medicines and daily exercise."

NS: "You should ask yourself if going for a drive-thru coffee is really an essential journey."

NS: "Stay 2 metres from others when you have to be out.

Don’t meet up with people from other households."

NS: "Isolate completely if you or anyone else in your household has symptoms.

Wash your hands regularly. And wear a face covering of you are in an enclosed space with other people - like a shop or public transport."

NS: "This is tough - I know that.

But if all we keep doing the right things, we will get there. Our light at the end of the tunnel will get brighter. And we will find the way through."

NS: "Please keep doing the right things, and thank you for everything you are doing to comply."